EURUSD

getting some now (at around 1.3370) then getting some more if it retraces to support (roughly at 1.3350) might be a decent play.i'd target range between 1.3460 to 1.34070 to cash out. a stop somewhere just under 1.3270.i know it's roughly 1-to-1 risk/reward but i think it's feasible in this case.

EURUSD did close down today about 55 points toward our River Level as anticipated in the analysis from yesterday. If you followed the trading recommendation, you should be short out of the 3386 level.
Remember that this is a countertrend move with longer term value pointing to higher levels near the 1.4400 level. I want to emphasize that you should review the price distribution analysis update for this pair. It is very important to have a broader veiw as we head towards the end of the month.
So what now?
I indicated that we would see stalling from demand at Zone +1 3353 level and we did. You will recall that this area was our long term target on our recent longs. We want to now use this key level as an upward guage for any near term continued strength. A strong move through this area and you should cover shorts.
If you are short, stay short and continue to look for a downward test of the River Level which comes in today at 3271. I recommend covering shorts at this level. This would represent approximately 115 points on our countertrend trade. The River Level should help indicate the next directional move.
Normally, I would recommend that longs be established at this level on the test. I would recommend that we be patient if this area is tested and watch for the next clue on this occassion as I do I do see a possibility that we may continue to trade down to the Transition Level at 3132. If given the opportunity, traders who did not establish shorts yesterday can look to set shorts on a retest of the 3353 Level today and follow the recommendation above.

SHORT TERM NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED
http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-23-2007.PNG

very interesting analysis DRT, I enjoy reading your posts. helps me formulate a better opinion for myself

Hi all,

I was wondering if any of you guys using this interesting methodology could clarify a few points for me. When seting up the market profile how long a history is taken into account?Also are you guys appling the same rationale to all timeframes in fractal fashion?Thirdly when these areas are visited how is a decision taken? Do you wait for price to visit the relavent area then use price action to determine a position, or does this methodology give signals in and of itself?

I would really like to know more about this, as it seems logical that such a system can help to keep on the right side of the order flow.

Thanks,

Ed

Last week we took profits on our long trade that we held out of 3080. Then late in the week, we set up shorts after the FOMC action near the 3386 level for an anticipated countertrend move back to River. At the close on Friday, we closed at 3283 just a few points above our River. Many of you may have taken profits on this 100+ point move ahead of the weekend as I recommended to cover your short trade at 3271. I also took profits happily and am flat. We have been successful at capturing a good portion of the moves in this pair over the last few weeks.

So what is our trading theme heading into this week?

The first thing you should do is review thePrice Distribution Analysis for this pair. You will see that we are approaching a critical test area near the 3262 level at the bottom of the upper tier value level. I anticipate this will be the catalyst of our next directional move. If this level holds, then may trade up to higher levels near 3480. If this level fails, then we should begin to move down to test the 3132 area. The idea is to work yourself into position with minimal risk until you have confirmation of the directional move.
I also recommend reviewing the US Dollar Index and the Euro Index. You will see that the USD index is about to test a key level at River also which confirms our trading theme.

Understanding the theme above, what should we do?

Today's River Level is at 3255 confirming the PDA we discussed above and this is our focus. I anticipate a test of this level. In my opinion, we should err on the side of the longer term trend which is up. Traders should look to set up longs on a push into the 3255 River Level. Risk for this trade will be tricky given the above scenario. Try to be patient and let the move work the demand in this level. If you get out too early, you can always reset longs if the move up occurs. Upside target is 3353. I recommend that you exit longs here and wait for resolution of this area.

If the move goes strongly through the River Level to the downside, we can set up shorts looking for a move down to 3132. Obviously the move around this area may be volatile so have your plan ready and work either direction that materializes.

If the move up does materialize, it has the potential to be powerful. It would not surprise me if this may be the final push up for the Euro in 2007, but let's see what develops if we do in fact go to higher levels.

SHORT TERM NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED

http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-26-2007.PNG

very nice.
lets see what happens

long from 3270 and 3290.

I guess 1.3200-10 level comes first.

No real moves till now,, waiting for frankfurt open..

i'm still long from last week at 13370...any thoughts? get out or wait for the euro to rise a bit again and then cut my losses? cause i doubt it'll get that high again anytime soon.

according to some personal work, i think 450 or 500 levels make sense, but not before Wed or Thu,,,

think we will see a fall to around 1.3205 before a potential upside, if it breaks that number then further down id say.
JeremyA

DJ MARKET TALK: Net USD Speculative Shorts At '07 High

Mon Mar 26 03:25:31 2007
EDT

0725 GMT [Dow Jones] Speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange pushed
their net aggregate USD short position to $14.0bn in the week to last Tuesday,
the highest level for the year so far. The net long EUR position fell slightly
to $14.6bn from $15.9bn even though the spot level of the EUR rose. ABN-Amro
suggests this "may encourage speculators to jump back in and push the EUR/USD
higher." Net short JPY positions were reduced to $5.3bn from $5.7bn. This was
the lowest level since December 5 last year. "It appears that speculators have
backed away from the JPY carry trade for the financial year-end," the Dutch
bank said.

I opened a miniscule position at 1.3291 last friday, so I am up by about 30 pips now. I got a signal to short earlier, but am not since that is counter the major trend. The pair seems to be pushing lower though.

my longs starting to work out.
lets see what 3340 does.

Sorry. I should have posted this last night. Forgot. The Euro just entered our sell zone so I thought I would let you know.

DRT


Bingo! The market traded down to River at 3255 (actual low was 3254) and moved to within 8 ticks for our target at 3353. If you followed the recommendation you had as much as 93 points for profit on this trade to work with. All longs should now exit.
Traders can look to establish shorts in front of 3353/3369. I now look for a move back down to River at 3270. I expect a move through River and a continued move down to 3199 and then 3128 where all shorts should cover.
What tells me my view is incorrect? Building value and settling above 3369 on a daily basis. This should be your risk.

http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-27-2007.PNG

Yes, fibonacci told me also that it will go down but it told that there will be straight drop also. I hope his right

I have a short position at 3248 but after today's bad data from US my position is in loss. Do you think there is chance of it coming back to 3250 range sometime soon. Where do you see EURUSD heading in coming days?

Seems as 1.3200 would be the next move.

This is the cost analysis 660.000 contracts of euro/usd for last week. We have seen traders gone long around the point 1.3290 . http://www2.oanda.com/ubb/biggrin.gif But they haven't realised their positions and closed those longs.As i mentioned below with a describing chart there are too many long positions accumulated at 1.3290. So according to my analysis there is a possible up move at least to the point of 1.3380. Any hourly close over that point will probably bring us new highs.

we are following trades and as you can see costs were around 1.3340-1.3350. We could not reach to the level of last week's costs around 1.3380 and this had signed us that we would go short. We will continue to go down as long as we can not pass over the point at which costs are accumulated "1.3340"