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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #6,481
  • Feb 13, 2009 5:06am Feb 13, 2009 5:06am
Hi en0x,

This is also what I think - one has to be on board the first big move after 6:00gmt. Usually before lunch.

But the problem is to stay in the trade and not to be shaken out. Like gbp today and eur yesterday.

Very often there is a IB from the last session and the daily close within. This means possible trades in both directions.

There is very often a second time through - like a first breakout, then reverse to pick stops at the other side of the IB and after that a real breakout to the former side. This is very often the case if you have low risk IBs (narrow range). Any solutions?

Maybe trade the first IB (or the resulting local high/low after that bar) in the session more than twice!?

Thomas

Quoting en0x
Yeah, I was in that short, I also got fried but I reversed.

Starting to feel under the weekly open is arbitrary, has no baring on the trade.

What I do think is more important is we look at the trend on the weekly or daily, and see if it is up or not. I think DIBS is great for entry into the trend. Heck I don't know. At the moment, my forward testing is showing rather random results and a disregard for the weekly open. I think we should be using better technical analysis to determine weekly direction, not just Weekly open.

However, I still believe...
  • #6,482
  • Feb 13, 2009 5:16am Feb 13, 2009 5:16am
with that GBPUSD trade today I still picked up a total of 120 pips, so that was a net profit of 100 pips. HOWEVER, due to the dibs method of halving profits at 1:1, the actual profit in $ was above break even after the two trades. Still a profit but not what I was looking for.

Since there seems to be no real way as far as I see to benefit from the 1:1 half position theory, starting next week I am going to be testing a full lot , moving SL to to break even after x pips scenario. EDIT: When I say this, I don't mean disrespect to PC or anyone else, I am saying in the way I look at this method. So far every false breakout I have seen that DOES go back into the IB takes it out. Normally it is a prayer and a wish that the SL isn't it.

What is a IB bar, in a nutshell its indecision/range , we are playing the breakout and as with all breakouts a stop loss (or when proven you are wrong ) is when price goes back within the range. So therefore moving stop to just below the break out or at break even will be my test. I am sure everyone and their dog has tried this with DIBs, if so then let me know your comments on the above. Still the filter I will be using is the daily open at 6am GMT
Survive and Preserve
  • #6,483
  • Feb 13, 2009 5:23am Feb 13, 2009 5:23am
Another though is , I want to know that when it breaks, it breaks hard. I think it was PC who said the best ones are the trades with NO pullback.

If that is the case, the furthest I want to see pullback is to the breakout point. If orders are being placed after the move, I want to think there are enough orders to trigger a proper breakout , perhaps some stop losses being taken out to bring it back to the breakout area but I don`t want it being directionless at that point. I want solid order flow on the breakout. If that makes any sense what so ever?

Anyways, I am just saying the above cause typing it helps me commit a plan to memory
Survive and Preserve
  • #6,484
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:29am Feb 13, 2009 6:29am
Having thought about it a little more I would like to answer again.


Quote
Quote
2. How do you use the "hot hand" with the setups not occurring simultaneously? E.g. there isn't a setup occurring simultaneously in the strong pairs of the day. It's maybe either in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd strongest but rarely in all.


Peter says he mostly trades only 4 pairs so the senerio in question most likely occurs rarely. If you are only trading a few pairs it only takes a quick glance to see which pair is up most on the day if given the choice between two at a given time.

Also let me add. Joel and Peter have a tested system that is well researched, Peter says he only trades the majors with it. Are there good reason PC only trades Dibs in the majors? No offense to the gang.


Best regards


Dale
  • #6,485
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:42am Feb 13, 2009 6:42am
and that is a very valid point, because the most the money of the euro session is moved between the majors.

I will not disagree with trading the pair for the session.
Survive and Preserve
  • #6,486
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:48am Feb 13, 2009 6:48am
Would you want to filter out this trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: post jpy.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #6,487
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:56am Feb 13, 2009 6:56am
what trade are you talking about ? I think i am missing something.
EDIT: Strange, the picture just appeared.
Survive and Preserve
  • #6,488
  • Edited 7:17am Feb 13, 2009 7:06am | Edited 7:17am
The trade took place on Dec 2. Ok lets play a game without looking at how the trade turned out, how many would filter out the trade?
  • #6,489
  • Feb 13, 2009 7:15am Feb 13, 2009 7:15am
Filter it out? to not take it?

Wouldnt you take it? Its below the daily open(well if I read that chart right I dont know what the time is on broker) but lets presume the entry permits a short as its below the london GMT open. I would take it but I was toying with the idea of testing moving the stop loss to the break out point, where in this case would have seen me stopped out for break even or there abouts. But that is only 10 pips. This is what I need to test, 10 pips is WAY to small to move stops, I was toying with the idea of moving stops to the breakout point after 20 points gained. If it turns beforehand then so be it, losses must happen.

In this case I would still be in , in the way I am TESTING dibs at the moment, I am certainly still in.
Survive and Preserve
  • #6,490
  • Feb 13, 2009 7:24am Feb 13, 2009 7:24am
Lets wait a bit to see if we have any other players of the game

Dale
  • #6,491
  • Edited 7:40am Feb 13, 2009 7:38am | Edited 7:40am
with some discretion I maybe would have thought twice to go short into close by resistance.

Although risk is pretty low.

T.

Quoting Dale
The trade took place on Dec 2. Ok lets play a game without looking at how the trade turned out, how many would filter out the trade?
  • #6,492
  • Feb 13, 2009 7:49am Feb 13, 2009 7:49am
Nice DIBS short on the GBPUSD.

http://i39.tinypic.com/zmo8eb.gif
TRO
  • #6,493
  • Feb 13, 2009 8:39am Feb 13, 2009 8:39am
Nice trade there thanks for sharing this chart

Regards
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,494
  • Feb 13, 2009 8:48am Feb 13, 2009 8:48am
Quoting Yahoomt4
Nice trade there thanks for sharing this chart

Regards
You are welcome. The trade got better...

http://i41.tinypic.com/2q2k5lz.gif
TRO
  • #6,495
  • Feb 13, 2009 9:26am Feb 13, 2009 9:26am
Using the New York open...

http://i39.tinypic.com/2mnfzwk.gif
TRO
  • #6,496
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:50pm Feb 13, 2009 12:50pm
Is the trading room still going on for DIBS?

Cisco
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,497
  • Feb 13, 2009 5:38pm Feb 13, 2009 5:38pm
Hi Money4Nothing,

At what R do you take profits? Or do you use chart features like s/r for taking profits?

As I understand - you having no bias (buy/sell without taking daily close into consideration) - do you care about s/r?

I personally think it makes sense to close 1/2 or 2/3rds of the position after R=1 and even less if there is strong s/r in the way.

What are realistic pip/percentage goals in your traded pairs (EURUSD/GBPUSD) for the day?

How often in average are you trading?

Do you care for a second time through - like price breaks high, then reverses, takes out low only to take out the high again and run? Does it makes sense to trade an IB more than twice for this purpose?
We see this behavior very often at the beginning of the session.


T.


Quoting Money4Nothing
Nice DIBS short on the GBPUSD.
  • #6,498
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:20pm Feb 13, 2009 6:20pm
Quote
The trade took place on Dec 2. Ok lets play a game without looking at how the trade turned out, how many would filter out the trade?


The above trade was stoped if you trailed your stop with a daily 20 bar moving average for a profit of 431 pips

Thanks to all who played the game.

Dale
  • #6,499
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:43pm Feb 13, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting Dale
The above trade was stoped if you trailed your stop with a daily 20 bar moving average for a profit of 431 pips

Thanks to all who played the game.

Dale
how ?? please show it on the chart with ma20!!!thx
  • #6,500
  • Feb 13, 2009 10:19pm Feb 13, 2009 10:19pm
OK
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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