Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Page 88 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

Adr, psych levels, demand & supply trading 15 replies

Standard Pivots and Fibonnaci Pivots? 9 replies

EUR/USD 5min - Trendlines and Pivots 379 replies

Important psych levels 1 reply

Too many drawn Trendlines all same look: how to draw Trendlines with different look? 2 replies

Attachments: Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected
Exit Attachments

Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #1,741
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:45pm Feb 11, 2009 7:45pm
At this point, mid morning in the asia session, I'll sit on the sideline and wait for some direction for new entries. Boring....

Here's the entire session so far on the 20m chart. The PA is clear and fairly representitive of a typical Asian session.

A break one way or the other to a pivot, a run back to the CP/DP with some bounces and stalls at or a'rd the pivots or QP's, with price coming back to roost near the CP/DP. Tonite, they are only 6 pips differnce so that will be a strong attractor unless and until it breaks and clears.. Frankie/London open maybe.

Near upside targets would be the QP at 2930 or M3 at 2950 to the north if the DP breaks... I'd rather short it again from there than long it to there, but that's just me.

Careful trades all.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #1,742
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:53pm Feb 11, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting eyevoltage
...my readings are very similar to yours. From a 1 pip difference to a 5 pip difference around R3 and S3...

Do you not bother with the round number psych-lines, and just base your trades purely on the Pivot readings?

.. see you a bit later on, mate.
Cheers
Cool, don't want to throw wrench ((you guys say "spanner" I believe)) into the works with off base pivots.

Yes, I absolutley look at the psych levels on the EU, crazy not to. Especially when they converge with any of the other pivots, fibs, or BB's. It's always a toss up imo as to which will win out, but I usually go with the Psych levels in that instance... it's a "price memory" thing or something. They'r just not shown on these charts for clarity.

Catch you later as well, thanks for letting me hang out here. The blather factor on EU was killin me...
FUBAR...
  • #1,743
  • Feb 11, 2009 8:53pm Feb 11, 2009 8:53pm
Quoting ak4x
...Near upside targets would be the QP at 2930... if the DP breaks.
Here's an oddity of the QP's and why I'm so confident in them, as long as you get them right. The problem is the measly 6 pips between the CP and DP, always a question of precedence...

I had earlier taken the QP between the DP at 2910 and M3 at 2950 and set it to 2930 even. Nice round number and no worries.

When price tore thru the DP a few mintes ago and turned on a dime at 2926, I thought "Huh, that was odd." It blew thru the 20, but didn't reach the QP at 2930, instead collapsing 15 pips in a blink after touching 2926 (my MT4 High for that runup) There's usually a one pip difference at least between my MT4 borker feed and my Accuchart price.

Here's the thing... If you calculate the QP from the Central Pivot at 2904 which price HAS been respecting so far instead of the DP at 2910 which it has NOt been respecting, you get a new QP of 2927, a value that price did respect... one pip from the actual turn point and close enough for government work. DP at this point assumes much less imprtance to me as the CP seems to be superseding it in this PA.

So the new QP is now 2927 with a tentative additional Orange QP at 2939. I''d normally go with the round number on a level like that... actual at 39, practical Psych level at the 40, so call it 2940 even.

Proves the old adage... GIGO. (Garbage In, Garbage Out)

Pending short from 2946 missed getting hit by 2 pips... oh well. Will reset it to 2936 with 23 pip stop and call it a night.

Careful trades all.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #1,744
  • Feb 11, 2009 9:42pm Feb 11, 2009 9:42pm
I am enclosing a few charts showing some of the difference in calculations depending on the "start of the day" hour and broker times, on SDX-pivots set at Fibonacci, and a comparison to a standard plain S/R pivot, and finally to psych levels.

Some of them may seem more accurate than the others, truth is that there will always be an area or level which doesn't have to be "to the pip", EXCEPT (in my opinion and after hours of screen time observing this particular behaviour) in the case of the psych levels, where each of them is a "central pivot" in itself at any particular moment.


Broker at GMT+1, start of the day set at NY Close (Fib Pivots):

http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/8...1nycir9.th.gif

Start of the Day at New York Open, 8am EST (Fib Pivots):

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/593...snyovq8.th.gif

Start of the Day at New York Close - 5pm EST, Broker at GMT+2
(Fib Pivots):

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/469...snycpy6.th.gif

Start of the Day at London Open, GMT 08:00 (Fib Pivots):

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/384...slonjm7.th.gif

Start of the day at GMT 00:00, Broker at GMT (Fib Pivots):

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/232...sgmtfm8.th.gif
  • #1,745
  • Feb 11, 2009 9:45pm Feb 11, 2009 9:45pm
(continues)

I invite you to compare the differences and similitudes among the different hours chosen to start the daily calculation, and observe carefully the behaviour of the prices in respect to the psych levels.

Simple Standard Pivots:

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/171...sstsri9.th.gif

Sweet Spots (Psych Levels):

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/306...tsssmb0.th.gif
  • #1,746
  • Feb 12, 2009 2:46am Feb 12, 2009 2:46am
Hi all,

so Breakout on GBPUSD paid this morning (I'm in France!).

From 1.4390 breakout level, we are now at 1.4230.

For me, London session pivot point are the better one.
But better levels to tarde are H1/H4 psy levels.

Breakout GBPJPY to folllow ...
Attached Images
  • #1,747
  • Feb 12, 2009 2:48am Feb 12, 2009 2:48am
And this mornong, we saw strong psy level on GBPJPY.

I'm now short from 128.60.
We're testing 128 level.

Have a good day !
Attached Image
  • #1,748
  • Feb 12, 2009 4:16am Feb 12, 2009 4:16am
Some great info from ak4x and doblece. I'll have to take some time out and do some in-depth studying! Thanks, guys, and welcome.

A nice little trade on cable this morning. A harami candle forming on the confluence of the 13ema and the xx20 psych-line led to an entry just under the low of said harami. A push through the S2 line was good enough for me to bail out.
Attached Image
  • #1,749
  • Feb 12, 2009 4:39am Feb 12, 2009 4:39am
....and another quick trade instigated by a dark cloud cover forming on the confluence of the 13ema and the xx80 psych-line. A five minute trade resulting in 20 pips. Nice.
Attached Image
  • #1,750
  • Feb 12, 2009 5:08am Feb 12, 2009 5:08am
well done EV !
  • #1,751
  • Feb 12, 2009 5:54am Feb 12, 2009 5:54am
Quoting LarryM@x
well done EV !
Thanks, mate. How did you do with the G/J?
  • #1,752
  • Feb 12, 2009 6:48am Feb 12, 2009 6:48am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Potential trade... The good points going for it marked on chart...

Negative points... Above .50?...


Magnus
Attached Image
  • #1,753
  • Feb 12, 2009 7:00am Feb 12, 2009 7:00am
Entry on 3m chart just below the M2 and 3/4 off at the lower BB/21sma (grey line), rest to run... target is the 6m chart lower BB convergence with the 2820 Psych line (not shown)

And that's it for me this morning. still have that short running from the 2936 limit sell that got hit ((posted last night)). Amazingly, it got hit with a pip to spare, making up a little for the ones that missed entry by a pip or two. I'll take it.

Careful trades all, back to finish my nights sleep... careful trades all.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #1,754
  • Edited 7:17am Feb 12, 2009 7:16am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting Yuppie
Potential trade... The good points going for it marked on chart...

Negative points... Above .50?...


Magnus
Magnus, it isn't a Dark Cloud Cover. It's a Bearish Engulfing Pattern.

Edit: Ignore the lower shadow......the second candle only has to engulf the BODY of the first candle.
  • #1,755
  • Feb 12, 2009 7:49am Feb 12, 2009 7:49am
Quoting ak4x
Entry on 3m chart just below the M2 and 3/4 off at the lower BB/21sma (grey line), rest to run... target is the 6m chart lower BB convergence with the 2820 Psych line (not shown)

And that's it for me this morning. still have that short running from the 2936 limit sell that got hit ((posted last night)). Amazingly, it got hit with a pip to spare, making up a little for the ones that missed entry by a pip or two. I'll take it.

Careful trades all, back to finish my nights sleep... careful trades all.
I've been watching how your trade went, mate. On my chart, price finally hit the S1 (1.2825) before finally heading back up. I noticed that the last 3 or 4 candles of the move down were VERY indecisive (spinning-tops and dojis), almost guaranteeing a move back northwards. Nice trading, mate.
  • #1,756
  • Feb 12, 2009 10:25am Feb 12, 2009 10:25am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting Yuppie
Potential trade... The good points going for it marked on chart...

Negative points... Above .50?...


Magnus

Was good for around 20 pips or so.

Thanks for the clarification EV - much appreciated. I definately now know the difference between dark-cloud-cover and bearish-engulfing (did some reading up )... so if I get it wrong again you may put together a written complaint...


Magnus
Attached Image
  • #1,757
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:07pm Feb 12, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting Yuppie
Was good for around 20 pips or so.

Thanks for the clarification EV - much appreciated. I definately now know the difference between dark-cloud-cover and bearish-engulfing (did some reading up )... so if I get it wrong again you may put together a written complaint...


Magnus
You can't beat a bit of reading up!! And I'm glad you took it in the right spirit, mate. I was a bit concerned you'd be a little "miffed", as they say, but hey, we're all friends here!
  • #1,758
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:09pm Feb 12, 2009 12:09pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting eyevoltage
You can't beat a bit of reading up!! And I'm glad you took it in the right spirit, mate. I was a bit concerned you'd be a little "miffed", as they say, but hey, we're all friends here!

Certainly wouldn't be "miffed", far from it... any feedback is good feedback!!...


Magnus
  • #1,759
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:55am Feb 13, 2009 6:55am
I sold at the breakdown from the small doji and covered at the psych level at the 50 for 15 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #1,760
  • Edited 8:01am Feb 17, 2009 7:21am | Edited 8:01am
Hi folks..
Symmetrical triangle formed on cable 15m. They usually signify a trend continuence, so let's see......

Edit: 13:50 - Broke to the downside, but stopped by the 34ema, so....no trade.
Attached Image
9 traders viewing now