EURUSD

"I am getting ready to go long, just watching the MACD to be sure, but it looks like the drive might be nice up"
Yeah

I had a pending long @1.2833 and it wouldn't pick it up so I long @1.2856 and pending @1.2880. cross your fingers and good luck

I am back scalpin long now

The market is waiting the result of US fruit machine.

[US JAN BUDGET] The Us posted a budget deficit of $83.8 bln which was larger than the CBO estimate of a $78 bln deficit. It compares with an $18 bln surplus a year ago. Jan is usually a surplus month due to mid-month quarterly estimated nonwithheld individual income and employment tax payments. But taxes receipts were considerably weaker this year with corporate taxes down 25.2% y/y and individual taxes down 16.4%. Total receipts were down 11.4%. Total total spending was up 30.6% led by about $42 bln in TARP outlays. The deficit for the first 4 months of the fiscal year was $569 bln, up from $89 bln in the same period a year ago.

[NAHB ON MULTI-UNIT MARKET] Deepening recession and tight credit left US builders depressed about apart/condo market per NAHB. Latter's Multifamily Rental Market index (MRMI) & Multifamily Condo Market index (MCMI) showed more weakness. Headline MRMI fell sharply for Q4-2008 to 22.4 for affordable aparts, to 18.6 for market-rate apart from 45.3 and 40.00, respectively a year ago. The condo supply component fell 11 points to new record low of 7.8. Looking out 6 months, builders were only slightly less gloomy. MRMI's expectations sub-index for affordable rentals fell to 28.6 vs 48.9 year ago. Market-rate rentals, at 22.5, were less than half level of 50 from yr ago. The MCMI index on expectations for condo supply fell to 13 from 29.2 in Q4-07. Also, index value for asking rents stood at 41 or lowest since the series began in 2003.

[OIL SLAMMED BELOW UsD36/BRL] March Nymex crude has been crushed in late flow. It is now trading well below $36/brl after falling below 37 support as another bearish build in oil inventories encouraged more shorts. Fears on demand destruction amid global recession more than offsetting OPEC talk of possible output cut at next meeting in March. Both DoE and IEA have lowered their respect oil demand f/cast for 2009. Risks of slippage have come to fruition and in the short-term remain unless OPEC mulls an intermeeting move to limit supply. Note the most recent CFTC data showed spec funds net long some 130K crude contracts (futs & options) which suggest some ammo remains for forced stop-loss selling. Some fear retest of Dec lows in mid-$32 area.


[EURO AND STERLING LOOKING VULNERABLE] Both the Euro and Sterling look vulnerable independently against the U.S dollar, deep into the NY session. Both currency pairings are very close to session lows. [Cable], looks possibly the most likely to trade below the 1.4320 intraday base, currently just 10 cents or so above and seemingly has the more fresh serious negative impulses (BoE Inflation Report) to keep the downward momentum going. IGM has 1.4244 as the next bear target. Meanwhile, [Eur/Usd] is also dangling just above its Wednesday trough, at a handful of cents above its 1.2840 base. Here the risks would appear to come from a late drop in U.S stocks, where gains have and are proving difficult to hold onto. Ongoing chatter from Fed officials, bank CEOs and another leg up in gold (to Usd 945 so far) could also be seen as triggers for stops. 18:08 GMT - [CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT EVANS] is talking to reporters about the TALF, Treasury purchases and inflation issues. Evans says he'd like to see how the TALF and the Fed's agency debt purchase programs work before deciding whether the Fed should purchase long-dated Treasury securities, though he is opened-minded about it. He is optimistic that the TALF will be rolled out in the next few weeks (it has just been delayed). Those comments, taken together, offer a rough schedule for a decision about Fed purchases of Treasuries - get the TALF in place and then spend some time seeing its effect. Evans says he isn't tremendously concerned about deflation (there is considerable debate on that issue) and says the Fed is still discussing inflation targeting.

For us longs..I dont like how the S&P is at the low of today and at the low of yesterday. We need the support to hold here or we might see stregthen in the $$ until 4:30

EDIT: Looks like yersterday's SP500 low is holding...It poped off of that level rather quickly..Only time shall tell

I've heard of "scalpers", but never seen a real, breathing one. I go for 80-150 pips and rarely if the market offers - 200-300 pips. I can define that like a kind of a positioning trading. How do You define scalper?
BTW, gold finaly broke 930 R and it's time for the smart money to start cashing T bonds and enter gold. In other words, one great buble should burst, so another can rise. :nerd:

I just keep looking at daily and see room for some volatility, but sticking it out...

dow was close to its lows too, but it looks like we might be safe from here, as soon as it retraces back i'm going long

Bounce off 50% Fib twice.

It's getting harder for the bears and time is running out. Bull's moo echoes in the FX forest...
See/hear/read you tomorrow.
Good luck.

oil down equity barely flat *amazed*.........oil down usd weakens.. *amazed* again.....whats up is down... nothing makes sence oil down cad and ausie strenthens...just in short term as in scalping... this cant stand.. usd will retrace soon

What do you have in mind, I am just as amazed as you, it's freaking me out, anyway we got one hour left till the markets close, what's next?

thank you for the chart... bad timing

I guess next decision regarding this pair goes to the asian markets tonight

Up for a while

follow the money... the one with the most (undiluted) is the strongest..the less you spend comparibly the stronger you are. each day we start out even if you spend more that particuliar day then i your weaker. if you borrow (print money) your weaker if i dont ..this works the same with different countrys. ,

what happend while i was gone ??

did the fourm apprentice lose his other 30%

Funny how the market is reacting to such a colossal news? i expected to something uglier than the nfp or immediate steady usd selling.. true there is always something new to learn man.