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Winners And Losers Trading System

  • #61
  • Mar 23, 2007 4:36pm Mar 23, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting SisterCurare
I can't believe the EA is working so poorly
Try Using The Following Settings


Lots - your decision

Minimum Profit Run = Between 30 and 50 pips for EUR/USD

Winning Trailing Stop = Between 5 and 20 pips
(depending on how large your profit run is)

Loosing Trailing Stop = Fairly small! between 6 and 2 pips
(for this you want to just trail the reverse momentum with out giving any ground back)
  • #62
  • Mar 23, 2007 4:53pm Mar 23, 2007 4:53pm
This is what I got on a backtest from 1/1/2001 thru 3/15/2007

This was EU 35/5/3 The modling was not all that great though at 37%
Attached Image
  • #63
  • Edited 5:52pm Mar 23, 2007 5:40pm | Edited 5:52pm
Quoting megaleads
The Program is Perfect... but for backtesting I don't think that it is looping

Testing this month it is making money... from March 4th to March 23rd - actually it made $1484.40 (but it made this in 1 day) looks like in just one trade...

It does not look like it is repeating when back testing even though it is set to = TRUE
Here's what happened. The short got stopped out by a minor whip since the stop was so close. For some reason, the stop was not applied to the long (losing side) - there should be a line on the chart below showing the trailing stop - not there (#&#^$@#%&). It stayed open until the test ended, and was closed at a nice profit, just by chance. Had the trailing stop been applied, it would have been stopped out after the bottom, at a large loss.

That's the danger of a tight stop. Winner gets stopped out, price continues, you're holding the loser watching it get bigger.
Attached Image
  • #64
  • Mar 23, 2007 5:49pm Mar 23, 2007 5:49pm
Quoting blueruby
So it doubled the account in 6 years? I'll opt for a nice mutual fund. Even Fidelity Utilities makes 20% per year, and compared to what we're doing, it's rock solid safe.
i think you are not looking the graphic correctly.

To me it appears that the account has been multiplied by 21 starting @ 10K
  • #65
  • Mar 23, 2007 5:56pm Mar 23, 2007 5:56pm
Quoting melpheos
i think you are not looking the graphic correctly.

To me it appears that the account has been multiplied by 21 starting @ 10K
Yup, you're right.
  • #66
  • Mar 23, 2007 5:56pm Mar 23, 2007 5:56pm
what if you didn't place the two perfect hedge trades at the beginning?
think about it.
this would only serve to benefit the manager for execution fees.
don't place the hedge and watch the market. if market moves 'a' pips then enter fading trade. that's all this is.
when you have an algebraic equation with all these little loops you want to ideally eliminate the loops unless you are trying to pull the wool over someone's eyes.

"there's nothing new under the sun." Scott Barkley Pro Mentor from PATraders.

something else worth mentioning in this thread since it just became a reversion thread.
people that play reversion do really well off execution fees but how many do you know that have not blown an account?
honestly.
i trade news and momentum at london and NY opens. i trade for a living.
It really is that easy.
  • #67
  • Mar 23, 2007 6:01pm Mar 23, 2007 6:01pm
Quoting melpheos
i think you are not looking the graphic correctly.

To me it appears that the account has been multiplied by 21 starting @ 10K
Yes, but I have seen this kind of backtest before.. If you just change the timeframe I bet it changes the test completly... Meaning the data points are not very reliable... I would not trust that.
  • #68
  • Mar 23, 2007 6:01pm Mar 23, 2007 6:01pm
Quoting blueruby
OK, it is working right now, and now it DOES drain the account as badly as any EA I've seen.

Here's what it does:

Opens a long and a short position on the currency pair of the chart it's attached to. Can run on many pairs, one EA per chart, one EA instance max per pair. # lots (A) set by Lots input.

When MinProfRun (B) is reached, that position gets a trailing stop, number of pips specified by TStopWin (C).

When that stop is hit, the losing position gets a trailing stop, as specified by TStopLose (D).

Once that trade is closed, IF "repeat" user input is set to "true" then it will immediately put on another set of trades and start over.

While watching it run in visual mode, I wanted to see lower settings, such as B, C, D = 30, 25, 15. Optimization results from Nov 1 until now puts them each around 50. If I go back to Jan 1, 2006 until now, I can't find any settings that are profitable. That's backtesting.

You have to watch out when optimizing, and examine the trades. Sometimes a certain setting will work out just right to catch one big move perfectly, and that's where most of the profit comes from. Then if you don't get that exact same move in real life....

I didn't see any encouraging patterns for the settings in the op results. Even during the period where it worked, settings that gave best performance weren't distinctly different from those that gave the worst.
Blueruby could you post your code list so that other coder like me could take advantage and learn more about mql language ?

thx
  • #69
  • Mar 23, 2007 6:01pm Mar 23, 2007 6:01pm
Quoting THE FxORCE
what if you didn't place the two perfect hedge trades at the beginning?
think about it.
this would only serve to benefit the manager for execution fees.
don't place the hedge and watch the market. if market moves 'a' pips then enter fading trade. that's all this is.
when you have an algebraic equation with all these little loops you want to ideally eliminate the loops unless you are trying to pull the wool over someone's eyes.

"there's nothing new under the sun." Scott Barkley Pro Mentor from PATraders.

something else worth mentioning in this thread since it just became a reversion thread.
people that play reversion do really well off execution fees but how many do you know that have not blown an account?
honestly.
i trade news and momentum at london and NY opens. i trade for a living.
I agree. If you're good enough to pick the point to get out of the winner, you're good enough to just fade the trade. If you can set the numbers in advance, as the EA requires, then you're really good.

Have the ea watch for a move of "B" pips, trail it until the reverse, after "C" pips of reversal, place the order for the fade. Same result.
  • #70
  • Mar 23, 2007 6:14pm Mar 23, 2007 6:14pm
how many people in this thread disagree with trading support and resistance?
just a reality check
It really is that easy.
  • #71
  • Mar 23, 2007 6:19pm Mar 23, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting THE FxORCE
how many people in this thread disagree with trading support and resistance?
just a reality check
I've been running the gamut of indicators, systems, and EA's for a month or two now, and it's been fun, but I'm getting back to plain old S/R, trendlines, and price action, and moving to longer timeframes. Still trying to find what works for me.

I'm trading for a living, too, but that doesn't mean I'm making a living, it just means I'm not doing anything else!

If I don't get profitable in a few more months I'll have to get a job. That would be horrible.
  • #72
  • Edited 7:03pm Mar 23, 2007 6:36pm | Edited 7:03pm
Quoting blueruby
Here's what happened. The short got stopped out by a minor whip since the stop was so close. For some reason, the stop was not applied to the long (losing side) - there should be a line on the chart below showing the trailing stop - not there (#&#^$@#%&).
It works perfectly on my desktop, just not on the laptop. Will investigate.

See below, the loser got stopped out right after the winner, on a 1 lot trade, profit was $365.40, loss was $456.05.

Then it took another set of trades right away, and a similar thing happened, profit $340, loss $390.

The next set was profit $320, loss $390.

The first trade below is the same one I posted earlier from my laptop.
Attached Image
  • #73
  • Mar 23, 2007 7:02pm Mar 23, 2007 7:02pm
Same exact EA, same Interbank - v4 build 202.

Works on the desktop, not on the laptop. I've got another EA I've been forward testing on the laptop that hasn't been acting right.

I don't know what to do about that.
  • #74
  • Mar 23, 2007 7:30pm Mar 23, 2007 7:30pm
Could somebody post the EA in .mq4 format?
Domo Arigato, Mr. Roboto!
  • #75
  • Mar 23, 2007 8:59pm Mar 23, 2007 8:59pm
Wow, just saw this thread now - seems like a nice idea. I'll be following this thread. =)


Quoting Darkstar
Let’s take a GBP/USD trade today on the FOMC statement for an example (cuz vol was fast and deep).

You enter your trade at 14:00EST. Long and short at 1.9586/84. Let’s use a 100 pip min profit target.



A couple of questions.

At, IBFX, GBPUSD usually have 4 pip spread, right? And right now (market closed), I see the last quote of Bid/Ask stands at 1.9618/1.9625. I guess this will greatly affect the "stopped out" thing mentioned in some post here?
Quoting Darkstar
At 14:30 the target is hit. Great! Were up 100 pips on the winner, down 102 on the loser. We set the Winner trailing stop at 30 pips.

At 15:05 the stop is hit at 1.9663. We put the 77 pips in our pocket but were sitting on a 79 pip loss.

As D is described, we then set our losing trade trailing stop at 79 pips. Either that means were going to close it instantly (if it’s from entry) or risk an additional 79 pips (if it’s from current price).

Ok, granting that you opened both positions simulteanously with 2-pip spread as per your sample Bid/Ask Price of 1.9584/86. Notice that once you opened the 2 positions, you'll be sitting on a -4 pips all through out, and not -2 pips.

Therefore at 1.9663/65, when you have gained 77 pips (LONG at 1.9586, close at 1.9663), you are currently losing 81 pips (SHORT at 1.9584, now at 1.9665).

Maybe, it's just a 2-pip difference, but since this is hedging, I thought every pip counts a lot.

Kindly correct me if I am wrong in my observation here?
  • #76
  • Mar 24, 2007 12:05am Mar 24, 2007 12:05am
Quoting megaleads
All positions are known up front

A = Lot size = 1.0 lots
B = Range in pips = 30 pips
C = STOP LOSS ONCE B HAS BEEN ACHIEVED = 5 pips
D = Stop loss applied to the hedge side after gain side closes = 5 pips

Net Result
Pair Starts out at 1.3000 - what happens next? Goes Down 55 pips to 1.2945 and then retraces to 1.2985

The Sop loss of 5 pips is activated on the SHORT side as the pair falls below 1.2970

then the stop loss is activated on the SHORT as the pair reverses at 1.2950

at 1.2950 the trailing stop loss is entered for the LONG side. When the Long Side hits 1.2985 then retraces back 5 pips down to 1.2980 the LONG side is closed

TOTAL GAIN = 1 lot Gain of 30 pips = Net Profit @ 100:1 = $300

This can happen a few times a day not to mention several times a week.. it can happen a few times back to back during news.
why dont you just open a buy position at 1.2950 and close it at 1.2980? it is exactly the same except that we can avoid the spreads?
  • #77
  • Mar 24, 2007 12:33am Mar 24, 2007 12:33am
Quoting blueruby
Same exact EA, same Interbank - v4 build 202.

Works on the desktop, not on the laptop. I've got another EA I've been forward testing on the laptop that hasn't been acting right.

I don't know what to do about that.
Most Unusual....
  • #78
  • Mar 24, 2007 12:48am Mar 24, 2007 12:48am
Quoting richy
why dont you just open a buy position at 1.2950 and close it at 1.2980? it is exactly the same except that we can avoid the spreads?

This is an excellent idea - what i don't know is how to track the currency in an EA without opening a position or a pending order - is this a difficult function?

It would save on the spread on one set of trades. Great Observation!
  • #79
  • Mar 24, 2007 12:56am Mar 24, 2007 12:56am
Quoting smjones
This is what I got on a backtest from 1/1/2001 thru 3/15/2007

This was EU 35/5/3 The modling was not all that great though at 37%
SWEET! Started out with $10K and ended up with over $210K
  • #80
  • Mar 24, 2007 1:05am Mar 24, 2007 1:05am
Quoting blueruby
That's the danger of a tight stop. Winner gets stopped out, price continues, you're holding the loser watching it get bigger.
Tight stop on the looser should stop it out immediately if that is the case.
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