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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #18,681
  • Feb 9, 2009 7:38am Feb 9, 2009 7:38am
Quoting welshguy2000
Orange, Thanks - I have decided to take my profit at this level. Closed out at 1.3075. The reason for this is the aggression which the market has pulled away from the 8EMA & 89. The speed of this move means that there should be some sort of consolidation / retrace on the 1H. I am going to re-enter using the 1H MACD method. Profit for that last trade was +110 pips
Smith.... nice trade...!!!

EurUSD
Look at the tail once the price hit fib 76.4% and just below 365. As I predicted earlier, these levels at least could hold this pair's from going upward for now. However, MACD is a TC upside.

USDchf
The so-called "EU mirror image" is also currently giving the same tail (in opposite direction to EU). Price is supported by 89 but MACD is a TC downside.

If USDchf manage to go at least fib 38.2%, the EU will also break the 365 as well and go towards at least below 200 region. This is what I can see the correlation between this two pairs for now.

Those rectangulars in shadow are perfect examples of rb/rt though...

p/s-look at the 89 and 200 in both pairs. Vice versa direction...
HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,682
  • Feb 9, 2009 11:22am Feb 9, 2009 11:22am
Quoting time1300
Hello Palmer,...
Money Management = Survival.....you got it.

Looking to see if the 'gap' on the EURUSD will be filled....
  • #18,683
  • Feb 9, 2009 11:31am Feb 9, 2009 11:31am
I have seen some pros that took today the trade in the 1H bellow the very strong 4h down trend line .There were 2 attempts to brake the line w/o success in the morning . We got an entry signal in the MACD.
Don't u think it was very risky to take this long trade around 1.2930 which was bellow the 4 h trendline .
Can we rely more in the macd than in PA and trendlines ?
Please advice
David
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,684
  • Feb 9, 2009 11:47am Feb 9, 2009 11:47am
Quoting david4u
I have seen some pros that took today the trade in the 1H bellow the very strong 4h down trend line .There were 2 attempts to brake the line w/o success in the morning . We got an entry signal in the MACD.
Don't u think it was very risky to take this long trade around 1.2930 which was bellow the 4 h trendline .
Can we rely more in the macd than in PA and trendlines ?
Please advice
David
David:

Look at the candle before your checkmark. I see a doji = indecision. Then there was a bounce off the 21 to the upside. The hard part about this is that price is below the 89 here so this was risky according to the method. But, when the 8 and 21 are going in the same direction opposite what the 89 is telling you, this can be a trend change too. So that with the bounce of the 21 (even though not a 'clean' TC) might have been an attempt to break out of the 2900 area.

Don't realy more on the MACD patterns vs. trendlines and the moving averages. The MACD is a good tool when there is strong rhythm but I would put more weight towards price action when we're consolidating around s/r areas. Don't focus too much on it. Focus on the strength of the trend instead.
  • #18,685
  • Feb 9, 2009 1:28pm Feb 9, 2009 1:28pm
Hi Guys,

This is my first post here and I find this mighty interesting. I have downloaded all of the content and am about to begin studying...

I would like to know though if I have right content? As in has the system ever changed over the past 2 years? Has it evolved or is it still the same as day one?

Also could you tell me what kind pip total can you expect a week on this?
  • #18,686
  • Feb 9, 2009 1:47pm Feb 9, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting Palmer
Money Management = Survival.....you got it.

Looking to see if the 'gap' on the EURUSD will be filled....
Mate i'm I being complete blind?! What gap? on what time frame?

Cheers WG
  • #18,687
  • Feb 9, 2009 2:02pm Feb 9, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Mate i'm I being complete blind?! What gap? on what time frame?

Cheers WG
Hmmm, I guess I should rephrase that. By gap I mean the gap between the 8ema and the price. Sorry about that WG...
  • #18,688
  • Feb 9, 2009 2:07pm Feb 9, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting DayTraderFX
Hi Guys,

This is my first post here and I find this mighty interesting. I have downloaded all of the content and am about to begin studying...

I would like to know though if I have right content? As in has the system ever changed over the past 2 years? Has it evolved or is it still the same as day one?

Also could you tell me what kind pip total can you expect a week on this?
It's the same since Post #1. There have been a few additions with a 1hr entry method but study the aspects of the 4hr charts first.

As far as pips per week, it depends on the market. If there is no rhythm with the charts it's hard to trade the method or at all. Once you understand what the 4hr charts are telling you and if you chose to, you can narrow things down to a shorter time frame and take cues from there. Last Friday brought me about 200 pips but I was zeroed in. This takes time to get to but study study study first. Click on the link in my signature to download a year of practice charts. Stick with the 4hr for a few months....
  • #18,689
  • Feb 9, 2009 2:10pm Feb 9, 2009 2:10pm
Hi Palmer,

Thanks for that... So do you believe that once studied and learned this one strategy really could be all that you need to be profitable?

Also With regards to all the material... should I study the lessons first?

Thanks
  • #18,690
  • Feb 9, 2009 2:24pm Feb 9, 2009 2:24pm
I'd read over the pdf first a few times then look for examples on your own charts, then look at the practice charts, then the lessons. If you don't fully see what is going on the lesson might be a little confusing. Focus on the high probability trades first such as during periods of strong rhythm and pullbacks to the 21. Don't focus too much on the MACD patterns since the majority of these are counter trend trades. Phillips mentioed several times to let the MACD be secondary or tertiary indy. Look at the 3 lower ma's first and go from there..
  • #18,691
  • Feb 9, 2009 2:35pm Feb 9, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Smith.... nice trade...!!!

EurUSD
Look at the tail once the price hit fib 76.4% and just below 365. As I predicted earlier, these levels at least could hold this pair's from going upward for now. However, MACD is a TC upside.

USDchf
The so-called "EU mirror image" is also currently giving the same tail (in opposite direction to EU). Price is supported by 89 but MACD is a TC downside.

If USDchf manage to go at least fib 38.2%, the EU will also break the 365 as well and go towards at least...
I agree with your thoughts, I believe this is a period of consolidation. Like I said before I will be looking for a TC on the 1H with the Target Profit (TP) area around 1.33 / 34

WG
  • #18,692
  • Feb 9, 2009 2:41pm Feb 9, 2009 2:41pm
The gap as Palmer indicated on the EUR/USD back to the 8ema is filling in and the 89sma also sits by the 8ema on the 4H and also the indicator Palmer has kindly introduced to us has turned green which is when you can look for entries after the yellow bars.

When I switch over to the 1H price has come back to the 21 and the MACD might be giving a TC or Zero bounce soon on the one hour. It is the quiet hours in the market that I don't like to trade but this looks like a good setup.

The EUR broke the DAily trend line and is which also sat along the 89sma and per the rules. When price crosses the 89sma, it either comes back to it or back to the 8 or 21ema before continuing in its original direction.

Here the 8ema and the 89sma and price level of 1.3000 are bunched up together so it might be three times the support so it might be a high probablity trade once we get the confirmation on the shorter time frame to enter.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,693
  • Feb 9, 2009 3:14pm Feb 9, 2009 3:14pm
having looked at gbp/usd pair, price has been hugging the 8ema for about a week now and has been in a rising channel on the 4H and the 1H.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,694
  • Feb 9, 2009 4:17pm Feb 9, 2009 4:17pm
That's the rhythm that's worth waiting for Time...

I'm thinking that the next stop for the EURUSD might be the previous downtrend line around 2900 which is right around our friend the 21...

Here's a current example of the 8ema price gap being currently filled.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,695
  • Feb 9, 2009 4:22pm Feb 9, 2009 4:22pm
Well...that didn't take long...

Think I'm going to crack open that 18 year old single malt now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,696
  • Feb 9, 2009 4:57pm Feb 9, 2009 4:57pm
save a bottle for me Palmer,

I did not expect that at all.......price has gone past the trend line that it recently broke............time to sit on the sidelines and see what will transpire here
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,697
  • Feb 9, 2009 5:06pm Feb 9, 2009 5:06pm
we might be going down to retest the lows, 1.27000 and even 1.24000s. What has caused those two huge candles, I don't know. I came home and I was anticipating opening up my window and seeing a TC off the 1H to make an entry and I was shocked to see price inside the trend line......................................I need a drink here........
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,698
  • Feb 9, 2009 7:51pm Feb 9, 2009 7:51pm
Hi all...

Yesterday I anticipated the fib 76.4% and 365ema levels would be the immediate res for this pair, which it did. So, let us look how our system tell us...

H4
The last 5 candles in blue box developed the rt in MACD window (circled in red). If the MACD continues downside, we'll see the price might revisit the support trend lines below it again. Price level 1.2800 is a HOT SPOT now.

H1
This time frame volume = H4 period. We can see a clearer view using this chart. See the Double Tops both in price and macd window? Maybe the DT in the price window is not as perfect as in macd window, but that was how it (the price) developed the pattern of the macd.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,699
  • Feb 9, 2009 10:24pm Feb 9, 2009 10:24pm
I am new here ...I would like to know if a short trade form point 1 to 2 was legitimate according to the system ...
If yes , why ?
I was mainly looking at the macd...is this an error ?
An if a long trade , right now , from point 3 is Ok or not ?
Now the price is bellow the 89 ,21 ,8 .
When is the earliest point we can enter a trade according the macd ?
On the second macd bar withe the same colour ?
pls advice
thanks to all for helping ...
David
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,700
  • Feb 10, 2009 1:35am Feb 10, 2009 1:35am
Quoting david4u
I am new here ...I would like to know if a short trade form point 1 to 2 was legitimate according to the system ...
If yes , why ?
I was mainly looking at the macd...is this an error ?
An if a long trade , right now , from point 3 is Ok or not ?
Now the price is bellow the 89 ,21 ,8 .
When is the earliest point we can enter a trade according the macd ?
On the second macd bar withe the same colour ?
pls advice
thanks to all for helping ...
David
Hi David...

Point 1 - point 2 : Good SHORT positioning
REASON(S): Candles are all small bodies...looks running out of steam on its way up...and your macd colour is red.

Point 3 : Perfect LONG entry
REASON(S): Entry made after the Moning Star is always promising one...and your macd colour is green.

However...you must remember this...

For MM, your entry should be based on h4 chart. You must take your direction based on h4 and then only use h1 for earlier entry.

I would like to say more, but I'll leave it to senior members of this thread to add their comments.

Welcome to the thread and Goodluck to you David...!!!
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