4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Hookem...looks like it's moving your way. I'm out just because the day of the week and how late it is in the day....

It does look rather tempting though, doesn't it.

Nice trade on 5 min chart , Palmer!!!

Closed out +15 on the Cable. Don't want to hold a position over the weekend.

a H1 entry:

we shoud waiting for the eurusd ,to do something in next week.
i am waiting for eurusd go up.....
if eurusd go down to 1.23,i will buy eurusd!!!!

trade 4h, head and shoulders, breakout pullback comeing back on trend line Before moving to go up looking trade daily bullish engulfing pattern and candle double bottom very good pattern ,macd divergency , support very a strong (daily stoploos very big 1.2742 entry 1.2925 1. target 21 ema 2.taeget 89 sma 3.target fibo 61.8 4.target trand line)Money Management trading risk 2-5%

Looking at the week ahead...

This is the monthly and look at the support there...just a head's up with that one.

The 4hr hit the top of the downtrend line and came back off that pretty good so I see us as still 'stuck' and the rhythm here is not great.

Here's the Gap indicator for the USDJPY if anyone is interested. It looks like the value of 0.24 fits well. Any thoughts or suggestions are welcome.

For the other majors, EURUSD, USDCHF, and GBPUSD the value of 0.0030 seems to fit for all of them.

The week ahead should be interesting and possibly quite volatile with the stimulus vote coming up...just my 2 pips worth there...

I wanted to just take the time and thank everyone with their contribution and keeping this thread as original as the first post. Phillip's posts will definitely be missed but everyone is doing such a great job and have a great understanding of the underlying rules of this method. I am very glad to be part of this thread and hope to be around for many years to come.

A question for you Palmer if you don't mind?

I wanted to ask about switching to the 5min for entry. I myself have been switching to the 1H most of the time to look for that entry and Macd signal for early entry after recognizing a clear direction on the 4H. I have noticed you switch to the 5min which I suppose will get you in even early than the 1H, thus banking few more pips. My question is, when you use the 5min for early entry, do you then switch to the 4H to calculate your stop?

Because phillips 5min rules states to keep the stop loss at about 8pips but I would suppose that is when you are trading the 5min and not using it for early entry. Would I be correct to made that analysis?

Also the 2 indicators you have included on your last post, one states it is for the USDJPY and one you had previously posted was for the EURUSD and the last one on you last post, which one is that for?
Thank you again everyone

Time:

The indys are the same from that original post. The only difference with the USDJPY indy is that it uses a gap of .24 instead of .0030. Since that piar is quoted with only 2 decimals it doesn't need the 4 digits. The calue of .24 just seemed to fit better. Looks like the Yen hugs the 8 just a little more than the other pairs. I named it with the USDJPY tag there so you wouldn't get confused.

As far as getting in with the 5min:

Let me start off by saying that "if I have the time to monitor the 5min" which isn't very often, I look for entries there. This window doesn't happen often.

I use the 4hr as a guide when that window is open. If the rhythm is not great, like the situation on the 4hr chart, then I look for the s/r areas, channels, FIb#s and if the 4hr is approaching one of those areas. If I use the 5min in this case than I might just be specifically trading the 5min and I might use a stop of more than 8 pips there too. I will take some off the table on the 5min and maybe let the rest ride in the event that that 'area' on the 4hr is broken.

If the rhythm is strong on the 4hr with the 8 > 21 and the 21 > 89 (bullish) and price has been riding the 8 then I'm thinking only look for longs on the 5min. Since I'm using the 5min specifially for the 4hr rhythm, then I'd use the 4hr chart to see where my stops would be so the answer is yes. But again, since that rhythm is strong on the 4hr I'm thinking that the entries on the 5min have a better chance of being good entries. This is where going in with say for example 1.0 lot on the 5 min, exit after 10, 15 pips or so with 0.7 lots, let the other 0.3 lots ride on the 4hr and use your 4hr stop rules for that entry, then during the next 5min entry..same thing.

A chart can do whatever it wants to at any time, we all know that. But, if you have a guide such as the 4hr and can see where the rhythm is strong and where it's weak, you can use the shortter timeframe to trade both of those times accordingly.

For strong bullish rhythm areas only longs on the shorter timeframe, opposite for shorts. The 1hr strength should be used as well to look for the pullbacks on the 4hr then go to the 5min...4hr --> 1hr --> 5min. There's only 12 5min bars in each 1hr candle so it could take a few hours even on the 5min to find that entry on the 1hr chart that shows the continuation of the 4hr trend.

Thank you Palmer for the clarification.

As Palmer has stated, I myself believe the Stimulus Vote is going to be the news to watch for and to see what direction we can expect for the EUR or even the GBP and the JPY.

For now, the EUR bulls seem to want to push price up but still we are not in a clear convincing direction.

The GBP also can go any direction depending on the vote on the Stimulus package but for now it has been riding the 8ema on the 4h to the upside but has reached a daily trendline so we will wait to see if it will break above it or retrace back down.

JPY on the 4H has found resistance at the 365ema and has broken a daily trend line and seems to be retracing back to it and maybe will continue with a TC off of 21ema. Also with Palmer's Gap indicator, we have had yellow bars with now the second green bar forming which as Palmer stated would be the area to look for entry.

If I am going to trade, I might favour the USD/JPY over the EUR. Just my 2 pips on the outlook.

I usually don't trade on Sunday nights but since football season is over and the The Family Guys wasn't on yet....

When the 4hr tested the trendline and was 'denied' I looked at the 1hr and saw the ADX getting weak and then to the 5min. The moving averages were lining up but the entry wasn't by the book there because the slope of the 50 wasn't there yet. The 5min entry is the vert white line. There was another entry, still a little early, a few bars later that looked a little better or a possible second entry but as I said, The Family Guy was on so I was a little distracted. The stop here is about 50 pips but I'm in with a lower lot size so the % risk is still 'in bounds' per the account size. You can see that the stop is just above the high that failed on the 4hr. So, this is a 5min entry that took a read from the 4hr chart and using the 4hr chart as the stop. The rhythm isn't the best on the 4hr right now but since the price was coming back into the recent triangle there that got my attention. I took some out already on this and will let the remaining play out..I'm taking a shot...

I really don't want to focus too much with getting in on the 5min per the 4hr method. I think that is taking too much away from the heart of this thread and I don't want to confuse any of the the new faces that might be showing up. Soooo, I'm going to refrain from posting much more about getting in early on the 5min. PM me if you like. I do plan on getting this on the website sometime later but the weather is warming up and that means the trout and redfish will be on the flats soon and it's back to working on the '78 Datsun 280Z.....


Until tomorrow...

Great trade Palmer,

I did notice that trend line myself on my charts and the past few candles has had a tough time breaking it. I think if price reverses and tries to test it again, there might be a good chance of it breaking out and going to the R1 level at around 1.3050 and a possible TC on the MACD on the 4H.

Hi all...

The TRIANGLE already broken...and...

It seems that the price has tested the 89 for 3 times up to now. If it broke above 89, the next level would be fib 76.4% and 365ema as the immediate resistance levels. Price level 1.3000 is a crucial one on the upper side.

If the price go down, we all know where those support levels are...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT

Good morning everyone,

Hope you all had a good weekend, my grandad pasted away on Friday night so mine wasn't the best. Anyways onto the trade floor.

I've taken a TC off the 21EMA on the 4H.

Entry: 1.2965
SL: 1.2747
TP: 1st (1.3062)

I have applied a bigger stop to this trade as I am viewing it a longer term trade. There is a key reversal signal in the form of a head & shoulder. I view 1.29 / 1.27 area as the bottom of this down move. The daily TL has also been tested a number of times and has held in, my thoughts are well see 1.33 in the next couple of days. I will assess this when it reaches my TP area.

Please find the chart attached.

Any questions please ask.

Welshguy,

I also took that trade, after I noticed the 4H TC might be forming and I switched to the 1H to find an early entry and entered @ 1.2932.

I have already took off 30 and 50 and have my last lot on BE and let it run to 1.3040 as I see 1.3000 and 1.3050 as resistance levels.

The 1.2990/1.3000 level has been tested 3 times now, they say 3 times the charm, if we break above that, I think we get to 1.3050 easily.

Edit:
first lot closed with 33 pips
second lot closed with 50 pips
3rd lot closed with 95 pips (it was my last lot and I did not want 95 pips to become 0 pips, if I had 2 lots open I would have closed one here and let the other one run a little more if it were to run.)

Total=178/3 59 PIPS

Got stopped out but the overall result was positive since I exited with a higher lot size during the drop and let the rest play out.

Congrats to those who got in on the return up!

Hello Palmer, I was there as well my friend, I did go short on the trend line and I saw price stalling and then I saw the bullish engulfing candle forming and I closed my positions to minimize my loss and I re-entered on the bullish engulfing candle and the TC on the MACD as posted on my last post. so I kind of came out even, as my gains erased my losses on the short entry. But it is all in the learning and discipline as I would have let my order get stopped out because I would not have the guts to close a losing trade but I have become a much more disciplined trader as I have come to realize how important stop loss is and to listen to that simple guidance we all have, "our gut feeling" and most of the time when my gut feeling is shaky, it is usually right and I have learned to listen to it when it comes to trading.

Condolence Smith....

Back to the trade...MACD shows a TC and the recent 3 candles is still developing the 3 OUTSIDE UP pattern...the 8 and 21 are in good gap and angle as well...

BUT......................

Let us see if this fib 76.4% still can be a good res level as it did twice before...365 just well above this fib too....

Thinking outloud....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT

Orange, Thanks - I have decided to take my profit at this level. Closed out at 1.3075. The reason for this is the aggression which the market has pulled away from the 8EMA & 89. The speed of this move means that there should be some sort of consolidation / retrace on the 1H. I am going to re-enter using the 1H MACD method. Profit for that last trade was +110 pips