Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Here are some notes on the Cable.

EG

Potential Counts for Cable.

I have my Primary Count and an Alternative Count.

See if you can find some logic in it.

EG

Note on the 3rd chart you will see Targets for 3 and 5 Yellow using the FIB Extention tool.

3 Yellow may have already been achieved

5 Yellow is next inline and is estimated to be a little above FE 261.8 just as 3 Yellow was a little above FE 161.8


then w52 seems to have been finished with the shallow retracement of around 23.6% which could signal a continued move down to accomplish wave53.

w54 target is at 1.2402 which is w35 Magenta
this is within the range of Projecting w3 Aqua using the FIB extention tool from waves 0-1-2 Aqua on the weekly chart

and aslo within the range for projecting the end of wave 35 Magenta using the FIB Extention tool from waves 0-31-32 Magenta.

EG

I am attaching revised notes I made last night which I drafted while the FF server seemed to have been under maintenance procedure.

...........

010109 Notes on Cable EG Analysis

On the weekly chart w1 and w2 down is finished
w1 in 5 waves
w2 in 3 waves as in a 3 wave traditional triangle
w3 in progress

w3 is extending as can be seen on the daily chart
w31 is finished
w32 is finished
w33 is finished and can be seen as an extended wave even on the daily chart
w34 is finished as an irregular flat and not anymore as an expanding triangle
w35 is in progress

using the FIB Extention Tool to project w3 and w5
w3 being extended and as can be seen on the chart would seem to end at FE 425
This is also within the range for the target of w35 using the FIB extention tool within the w3 wave extention projection

using the FIB Extention Tool to project w33 and w35,
w33 ended before reaching FE 161.8
w35 is expected to end before reaching FE 261.8

therefore, seeing that 1.2402 is in the range of projection for the end of w3 and w35
it is therefore very possible that there will be further moves down to end w35 Magenta also referred to as 3 Aqua

however, let us check the subdivisions within w35 in the daily chart and the h4 chart.

Reviewing the analysis above:
using the FIB Extention Tool to project w33 and w35,
w33 ended before reaching FE 161.8
w35 is expected to end before reaching FE 261.8

Again I would look at w35 as an extended wave too as I watch the Daily Chart.

On the H4 chart, the way that the price candlesticks on my chart looks would seem to show
1 Yellow is finished
2 Yellow as having retrace 1 quite deep
3 Yellow seems to have had a sharp decline as in any typical wave 3 with its subdivisions not so eveident on the H4 chart.
4 Yellow does not overlap with 1 yellow
5 Yellow exhibits extened characteristics, with its lower degree 5 possibly a truncated 5th

From here….. I am proposing that w35 Magenta will be extended just like w33 based on a separate analysis

Therefore, 5 Yellow on the 3rd chart is roposed to be end of w51 Aqua of w35 Magenta.


On the H4 chart you will see that 2 yellow retraced 1 Yellow by around 76.4% while 4 Yellow retraced 3 Yellow by around 23.6%
This completes the 100% retracement in terms of combined retracement percentages but not in actual values for wave 2 and 4 using the guidelines
.

It would seem that now a temporary bottom is in place at 1.4350 to end w51 Aqua (w351).

Only on the 1 min chart will you see that a 5 wave motive secquence is finished and using a different tool would indicate that this is the first sub wave 1 of an upward move.

I know those more knowledgeable seem to be seeing Cable retracing towards the 1.66 level already.

However, on my chart lower than the H4 Period, I see Cable just having finished a shallow retracement to finish w352 or w52 Aqua on the 3rd chart

And will continue to move down towards 1.2403 for the short term range.
Before it does move up for the w4 Aqua.

I hope these notes would help some of you. Kindly excuse the format I used and the rough ideas and count on my chart. I cannot expect all of you to understand it. But hopefully someone will be able to use it.

Just sharing with you thoughts running on my mind now.

EGJ

Note Horizontal Yellow line to check Possible overlapping of wave 4s with wave 1s

Yellow Horizontal line along w34 if breached from where price is now if it continues to climb will invalidate the current count

EG

Cable Potential for waves 3 and 4 on the Monthly Chart

Additional Projection for w53 or 353

EG

Yep, agree with you

R

Hi.

We still have differences here as I am assuming that price will continue to go lower towards 1.2402 to end 3 Aqua

And to be followed by a retracement towards 4 Aqua to the 1.7170 level.

Your count on the otherhand illustrate that from where price closed for 2008, you now see price rising towards the 1.7100 level. You may be right and my count can still be invalidated.

Like I mentioned in the earlier post here, I would consider my count to be invalid if price goes higher than 1.4698

Thank you for posting your count here.

EG

Yes, you are right, I was a bit hasty while reading your post. Anyway, I believe we are at an interesting resistance level now and the price action shows some signs of slowing down movement. Here's also my 4h chart.

Let's see what happens.

R

SOMETHING you might be able to use like I do in watching the waves.

LIKE I have mentioned before, my price analysis uses EW as its backbone and this is enhanced and validated thru multiple strategies to check for common targets of support and resistance levels or ranges.

EG

PITCHFORK construction and TARGET setting.

NOTE that although PITCHFORKS may be used to trade by itself, I find it helpful in my PRICE analysis with EW.

additional visual tools

COUNT was invalidated. BUT you can take advantage of other tools to make profits.

PRICE consolidation was evident on the 1 hr chart so a counter trade at 1.4510 and 1.4589 for me were inorder to hedge my prior position.

Just sharing my analysis for comment..
Disclaimaer : it's not a trade call..just for reference
http://i438.photobucket.com/albums/q...u090115b-1.jpg
http://i438.photobucket.com/albums/q...u090115a-1.jpg

here is an alternative to your ending diagonal 5 of wave 3.

I am looking at a possible Expanding triangle for the wave 4 of wave 3.

yellow 12345 seem fine as sub waves of higher degree wave 3. the following candlesticks are fitting into an expanded triangle quite well.

Nothing is really definite.

last daily CS has a long upper wick. however it is still green.

so we have 3 possible scenarios here.

1. which as proposed by surFXwave. am I correct to note that there are 2 possible scenarios on your chart?

2. because on my daily chart, there are 2 possible scenarios too. one deals with the possible ending diagonal wave 5 which I am not too inclined while the other one is a possible scenario for an expanding triangle as you can see the orange trendlines traced out.

If price falls off the lower orange trendline, then likely ..... the price is in a wave 3 of a wave 3 of wave 5.

But if the price finds support at the lower orange trendline, and breaks the blue trend line, then it is very likely we have an expanding triangle specially if the upper orange trendline is preserved.

wow, el grande....

i must say, i am impressed.

i thought your EW would burn out over time..... talk about persistance!

EL Grande,

I like your forks

Keep up the good work.

a

Well I am hooked. I can not look at a chart without looking for EW patterns.

What helps to sustain interest in trading is learning other strategies too which helps me analyze the charts when there are no clear signals from the EW Analysis.

It provides continuity during an EW lull. And it provides for a stronger indication when they all point in the same direction..

EG

Thanks auxesis. You helped inspire me to use the forks.

EG

Potential Scenarios for GBPUSD

EG

GBPUSD Chart Update

EG