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  • #62,341
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:33am Feb 6, 2009 3:33am
Quoting GrnEydGuy
My target for shorts is 2840-2850 range, based on current channel resistance.

Hope it makes it up there

..my target 1.2846
  • #62,342
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:34am Feb 6, 2009 3:34am
Its The Little Things In Life That Counts
  • #62,343
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:39am Feb 6, 2009 3:39am
Quoting SpecialEd
Gotta sign off. Time for swim practice (not this old fart, my daughter).

wise thing

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #62,344
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:49am Feb 6, 2009 3:49am
Quoting Driver55
Friends ,

I think that the direction for the day will be decide between 1,2837-50

What´s your idea ??
today is non-farm day, therefore any move before that, is considered dumb money, i myself will stay aside, better safe than sorry, you imagine what happen if the number will be 600k or 400k, so the direction can not be decided now
  • #62,345
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:54am Feb 6, 2009 3:54am
Quoting arthurb
today is non-farm day, therefore any move before that, is considered dumb money, i myself will stay aside, better safe than sorry, you imagine what happen if the number will be 600k or 400k, so the direction can not be decided now
The NFP release is not going to be good, we already know that, plus the market is so saturated with all of the Madoff bs, bailout bs, depression bs, that for the last 2 or 3 releases NFP has not cause major movements in the eur/usd.

So, my philosphy with fundamental analysis is much like it is with price action. I put more credibility in the pattern of recent trader behavior over that of historical behavior. I'm not saying that the risk is not there, I'm saying that the risk to reward ratio is becoming more aesthetic.
  • #62,346
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:54am Feb 6, 2009 3:54am
Quoting Driver55
Friends ,

I think that the direction for the day will be decide between 1,2837-50

What´s your idea ??
I agree. Fibo shows it.
Selling opportunities below it.
I used to open 2 or 3 trades as close as possible this area and I go closing when it stalls and reach some profits.
  • #62,347
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:56am Feb 6, 2009 3:56am
Quoting arthurb
today is non-farm day, therefore any move before that, is considered dumb money, i myself will stay aside, better safe than sorry, you imagine what happen if the number will be 600k or 400k, so the direction can not be decided now
Where do you live ArthurB ?? In Austria or in Germany ??
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #62,348
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:57am Feb 6, 2009 3:57am
Cnbc Reports We May Be Seeing 1.20 For The Euro In The Future
  • #62,349
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:58am Feb 6, 2009 3:58am
Quoting CAnthonyMVE
Cnbc Reports We May Be Seeing 1.20 For The Euro In The Future
Oh wow, I didn't know they hired a prophet. What was his name?
  • #62,350
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:58am Feb 6, 2009 3:58am
Quoting GrnEydGuy
The NFP release is not going to be good, we already know that, plus the market is so saturated with all of the Madoff bs, bailout bs, depression bs, that for the last 2 or 3 releases NFP has not cause major movements in the eur/usd.

So, my philosphy with fundamental analysis is much like it is with price action. I put more credibility in the pattern of recent trader behavior over that of historical behavior. I'm not saying that the risk is not there, I'm saying that the risk to reward ratio is becoming more aesthetic.
the market has priced in a result nearly same as the last one, anything else will be subject to correction, are you suggesting that you disregard the news completely and you just follow the price patterns on the charts ?
i am sorry , but i dont gamble , and hope you are demo trading
  • #62,351
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:59am Feb 6, 2009 3:59am
Quoting CAnthonyMVE
Cnbc Reports We May Be Seeing 1.20 For The Euro In The Future
You mean the Cramer channel? In that case, maybe I should go long!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #62,352
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:00am Feb 6, 2009 4:00am
News:
EUR/USD (1.2781)
European & US sessions forecast levels: 1.2630/1.2905
Trend Sessions: European: Neutral/Downward
US: Downward
Market Focus: 8:30 AM Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, 2:00 PM Consumer Credit.
Daily Strategy: The dollar remains strong as continue to take advantage against the euro after the European Central Bank decision to keep the interest rates unchanged. On the ECB press conference the bank signal that is expecting further rate cut. Trichet is the man who bet for the inflation and high interest rates. The Euro Zone interest rates are the highest from USA, Japan, Canada, UK and Switzerland. Today’s trader’s focus comes to the US jobs report at 8:30 AM. It is expecting rising of the unemployment rate and jobs cut for January above 500K. It is expecting new strong jump in the US unemployment. The dollar will continue with the recovery as we can see levels close to 1.26 today. The trading strategy today is opening short positions.
  • #62,353
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:01am Feb 6, 2009 4:01am
Quoting arthurb
the market has priced in a result nearly same as the last one, anything else will be subject to correction, are you suggesting that you disregard the news completely and you just follow the price patterns on the charts ?
i am sorry , but i dont gamble , and hope you are demo trading
No I don't disregard the news completely at all. I'm only saying that the recent reactions to these releases have been precipitated by much more cautious investors who are either moving their money into the market earlier or are completely staying out of something they would have otherwise traded.

So the markets are seeing less than normal volume around news releases and a slightly steadily increased volume prior to. This results in less activity after the release and a safer "risk aversion."
  • #62,354
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:02am Feb 6, 2009 4:02am
Quoting Jay Walker
You mean the Cramer channel? In that case, maybe I should go long!

LMAO
  • #62,355
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:04am Feb 6, 2009 4:04am
Quoting roziex
News:...
i agree with you
  • #62,356
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:07am Feb 6, 2009 4:07am
Quoting GrnEydGuy
No I don't disregard the news completely at all. I'm only saying that the recent reactions to these releases have been precipitated by much more cautious investors who are either moving their money into the market earlier or are completely staying out of something they would have otherwise traded.

So the markets are seeing less than normal volume around news releases and a slightly steadily increased volume prior to. This results in less activity after the release and a safer "risk aversion."
what you see right now are the banks and institutions or the big boys putting orders, you are free to scalp the moves but be prepared for sudden moves or unexpected corrections in either directions, if you see the charts carefully these movements have begun since yesterday. now consider also that is friday today , and the volatility maybe also an issue today, and this week there was a relief rally, if will be another today or not i dont know , but i just dont expect one today

ah , yesterday there was volume
  • #62,357
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:08am Feb 6, 2009 4:08am
Respecting micro trend line on the 15m at 1.2811
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd.gif Size: 24 KB
Probability Professor
  • #62,358
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:09am Feb 6, 2009 4:09am
Here we go down
  • #62,359
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:10am Feb 6, 2009 4:10am
im short at 1.2822. does anyone know where could be the first target.im looking at 1.2757
  • #62,360
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:11am Feb 6, 2009 4:11am
Quoting arthurb
what you see right now are the banks and institutions or the big boys putting orders, you are free to scalp the moves but be prepared for sudden moves or unexpected corrections in either directions, if you see the charts carefully these movements have begun since yesterday. now consider also that is friday today , and the volatility maybe also an issue today, and this week there was a relief rally, if will be another today or not i dont know , but i just dont expect one today
When I refer to traders, I mean all traders including institutional traders & banks. I don't disagree with you, but these institutions are making smaller more calculated moves now with their money, and it is having less of an effect on the market pulse than your veteran traders are used to.

By my calculations the risk to reward factor increases greatly when "big boys" are not making "BIG" moves.
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