Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

Stevewide,

Many thanks for putting the PDF together, many regards.

hi,

still struggling to improve my probability calculation.


Anyone using MTF Stochs found some useful hints to predict how many pips a move might take.


I'm not sure where - but if I recall correctly Spud said somewhere that he just predicts the high probability of a move but has no real clue how far it will go.

====================
Hi
the file could be damaged as we tried to download it but in vain.
Could u re-attach a good file of it?
thanks

hi chehab,

I don't have any problems with the file . I downloaded it and re attach it for you.

spud's methods are working for me on 5m chart; I prefer 1m trading but can't make it work for now. Therefore I'm trying my patience on 5m trading during active times. Sure would be great for spud to post an update and any recent great trades. He details his thoughts so thoroughly.

Steve

Good hearing that stevewide.

Would you mind sharing a bit more: for how long do you trade Spud's approach on the 5 min.

What part of the MTF stochs approach do you use?

here's my desktop; I am returning to spud after a year or so as I understand stochs and like macd indicators but trading for several years, unsuccessfully seeking to find my way.

Spud has made tremendous advancements to his stoch trades. Its too early to say I'll stick with it but its the best demo results I've ever had.

This morning's NFP appeared to be a good excalator to pips for gbp/jpy as the 15/30/60m climbed to the 80 level. I seem to understand the MTF stochs from past spud study the best.

I seem to have trouble closing early when stochs hit extremes. I'd like help determining how far price can go. Yesterday, I made 100 Gj pips, am proud, while leaving another 200 behind by closing early. No complaints but the potential is great if I understood more.

I like the dynamik; I combined the price and filter template into one and like it better.

I've never done well with the rope. Spud depends on it so I keep watching it. will study the pfd more.

Enough said to introduce my quest into spud's stochs. How do you use them best?

Steve

For my current process have a look at the Journal related to: Spud's MTF Stochastics http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=144270

It was supposed to be a joined learning, but there where in the end not enough interested committed once.

From the people around it seems that Merlyn had quite some success over a longer time period.


I personally see still a lot of potentials - but my tests are not extensive enough.



stevewide: did I understand you correctly that your current demo test are just a couple of weeks.

MJ: yes; just a week and my results are improving; but I'm just learning making correct trades along with mistakes and observing what works.


What I can't understand is why people have to change this? Who thinks they have worked harder than Spud? My perspective says to invest my time making something that Spud clearly shows works my own. If I can do that, months of profits from now I could try to tweak it if my success is growing.

And if I can't make this work, I'll continue to drift thru the internet burning limited time searching for something that fits my style.

I admire your sticking to spuds MTF's. If I can keep steady at it and not drift off as I and almost everyone does, I might post my trades which have mainly been winners. There's so many trading ideas Spud presents to pick from.

Steve

Hello everyone,

Been following this thread with great interest.

Just wondering if anyone has the MQ4 file for Spud's version of cja's MTF Stoch Bar Indicator handy.
Would like to amend the source code slightly to display 50, 70, 30, 90, 10 on the Stochs. Find these levels to be very useful too.

Thanks =)

As for me, I do the same.

* But I in my short experience:
- the last week was all together a bad week for my.
- the week before a very good one.

(considering all my 30+ test accounts not only the one I post the the journal)
So one week does not say too much. - except that it could or could not work.



Here I have a small problem. But I don't think Spud showed clearly that it works as it is not as simple.

He showed good examples and was able to communicate the idea behind his thinking in a excellent way.

I personally still think that it could work out profitable as I see a lot of good signs too.
But all together this is not enough for me: Until now I did no see any real trading transactions over a certain period of time with a worthwhile profit.
(not saying anyone has to prove anything) But to go live with it ??


Well it seems that at the moment I might be the most active one on the forum playing with SPud's MTF Stochastics. But there are a number of people who in-cooperated Spud's ideas into there personal trading who do not post much.

The reason I still stick to Spud's MTF is:
1. I really like Spud's presentations
2. I see a number of good signs which could work out
3. I think people jump to fast from one method to another and in the end have often nothing.
If a method or system shows a real potential I want to work quite hard to see what I can make out of it and if it is worthwhile to accept it in my real trading.
4. by now I invested a lot of time into this - I have the basic automatized program so I just need to reconfigure to test most things. So that makes it much nicer - but I still need a couple of hours each day to check all through.

Basically I'm in the process of eliminating more of the stuff which did not work so well and improving on the effectiveness.

Actually I made a big step in the right direction: But still waiting to see if the overall end result is worthwhile.

Well, I also try only one particular approach (in different variations) and use only EUR/USD at the moment.

Anyway all the best to you stevewide.

I studied and demoed and even live0traded Spud;s "Elevator" a year or so ago, and was able to basically trade without reference to the price. I had times of incredible good performance, but there were those times I failed badly...

So I have just found this thread and am going through it from beginning (up to page 9).

If there is anything to a "predictive" possibility with Spud's insights (and I believe there is), I want to get it down really well.

Come on back folks, and let's squeeze the juice out of Spud's fruit he has shared.

Ron

Hello Ron,


I demo traded this method for awhile. Had some good days and bad days.It appears the author has jumped ship and if the method has good days and bad days then the people following it will jump ship as well.


Regards,
Jeff

i didn't looked iside this fiber for a while
sory my inglish
hau it can be ship jump
you mean "to jump in the ship" or "from the ship" or "ship jumped"
hm...more proper will be to say "he jumped ON the ship"

englesh,inglish... dem...aha:

jump ship
to leave a job or activity suddenly. Although most of our employees are satisfied with their jobs, half of them would probably jump ship if something becames available elsewhere. The original star of the TV series jumped ship after the first season.
Usage notes: often said about someone who goes to work for another company

(idiom) To depart a project without warning.

Etymology: based on the literal meaning of jump ship (= to leave a ship without permission while it is temporarily in a port in the middle of a trip)
See also: jump, ship
Cambridge Dictionary of American Idioms Cambridge University Press 2003

that all Spud - he comes suddenly with new idea, working it out - lets it go - to live on it's own and then appears with new idea (he has a lot) ...that's Spud 4 ya

all those with bright ideas - they may be geniuses, but it comes with the price - they all crazy maniacs - nothing you can do about it, they are what they are : ))))

I just wanna say that everyone here is after pips nothing more nothing less.

Thats what we're here for right?

Then why will someone waste their precious time on something that simply isnt working for them... I'm refering here to MJ's comments on people "system hopping"

I spent a good 3 months in this thread everyday trying to mkae this work and in the end I just couldn't "get it" so I moved on, as I'm sure is the case with many of our old friends Sarah2000, FX weasal, JD computer, Ayaz to name a few

Sometimes system hopping is simply whats needed until u find the right trading methodology that fits your personality.

If you marry the first girl you ever slept with and stayed with her for 20 years how do you know how good she is in bed?

How could you possibly know when you've had no one else to compare it with = )

With that said I was really attracted to this thread by Spuds claims about how easy and consistantly profitible MTF Stochs can be as I'm sure many were.

The only problem for me was after 3 months it was neither Easy or profitable FOR ME.

Maybe it is for Spud because he "gets it" and has put the neccesary time in to understand it.

MTF stochs is not the only way to trade consistantly and profitably - there are many ways to skin a cat as they say.

In the end I for one chose Price action and simple trend trading over lagging MTF stochs simply because its what I understand and is simpler for me to understand.

The only thing that annoyed me about this thread is the number of different methods that were introduced with maybe a couple of examples at the most of each.

To teach requires repetition THE SAME THING over and over and over again until the students more than "get it".

Instead of 5 different things a couple of times.

I thank Spud for what he did teach me and the time and effort he put into this thread is muchly appreciated

and I will be dropping in every now and then to see how you guys are getting on with this I wish you the bes of luck.

I think whats needed is simply a consistant approach - Sometimes this thread reminds me a lot of a dog chasing its tail.

Personally I like Spuds old stuff better than his new stuff. And also in regards to this thread the simple material introduced at the start of this thread was much better (for me) than the various variations! towards the end.

Just my 200 cents

Thanks CindyXXXX for your post.

This is quite helpful hearing from you in a plain writing.


I absolutely agree with you that after a certain amount of effort (how much depends on each person's conviction of a possibility to succeed) one has to come to some conclusions. Which indeed my be forgetting the particular 'system'. I do that and eventually will do it with Spud's MTF stochs if I personally find it not any more worthwhile the effort.

What I find most helpful is you sharing about the effort you put in and accepting after 3 month that it was not worthwhile.

That is exactly what I still try to find out: as most 'systems' which are shared are not provable documented (transaction logs etc.) and we all know that most 'systems' will look easy with the right charts and explanation.


about your analogy with marriage I would differ but that's a other story

> The only thing that annoyed me about this thread is the number of different methods that were introduced with maybe a couple of examples at the most of each.

I personally liked it and agree with Spud that different people might understand different approaches best. But the end result must be OK and this is what's finally counting.



> The only problem for me was after 3 months it was neither Easy or profitable FOR ME.

Fair point and until now I have not much different results -- but still enough good signs that the effort is worthwhile for the time being

off-course, specific methods - very personal, and even i didn't trade this strategy, i discovered many things which i newer would without it.
plus - it's not just we are- very many people around the world working in similar direction and going through Spud's huge legacy - well, and legacy of this forum (without him - it wouldn't be the same).

well said everyone. I agree also.

Only thing is I seem to be picking good trades with spuds dynamik and PMTFS. I studied deeper this weekend and will study more this week.

Spud's methods appear to me to work but there's so much to miss if not alert.

Presently, I'm -45 in the Gj after having a easy 30 pip profit. 30 pips is not alot for the Gj beast so I didn't close. When it went 60 pips against me I dug deeper to find my mistake is I missed the uptrendline I had drawn on the rope setup from this weekend clearly showing my trade short was a mere brief retrace.

So instead of trading now. I'm gambling to get out at breakeven or take a loss from my mistake.

This seems to be a big problem for me. Starting the day half cocked, not fully aware of what's clear to see.

Otherwise, I see spud's method working for me so far. I will keep pressing on...

Steve