The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
- #61,463
- Feb 4, 2009 2:57am Feb 4, 2009 2:57am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,124 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
i dont know if you know my methods or not but i use channels and patterns mostly (no indicators). Why do i mention this, because certain patterns repeat themselves nonstop and they usually have a cycle. up till november or so it was mostly triangles including the triangle that broke up for 2000pips (for those who recall it). Missed most of december but lately in january and even now in february the pattern that has been played most is the M or W reversals (double tops or double bottoms). On the one hour charts i see the same thing, a double top...
It seems you are trading in the same way as I do. I was just checking the thread with an intention to make a similar post. I am a newbie so I have no experience with the market/pattern changes but I noticed as well the W M reversals in January. I was expecting the price to hit the upper wall of the main downward channel at 1.3018 - 1.335 but the PA fooled me and I didn'emake the most of it (one short at 1.2815 and two at 1.3014 and 1.3016). A dip below 1.28 will make me some good money. I still think the main trend is down and we will see at least the November lows. Besides the optimism on the stock markets doesn't last long these days.
I have one question though. How do you calculate the neckline at 1.2965? To me it should go below 1.2935 (the start of the left leg of the M)to be confident in the renewed down move.
I'd appreciate any info on your decision making, as it seems I have the same trading style as you do.
GL
Riding the Dragon....
- #61,467
- Feb 4, 2009 3:14am Feb 4, 2009 3:14am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Pipaholics make better lovers ;) | 1,002 Posts
- #61,468
- Feb 4, 2009 3:18am Feb 4, 2009 3:18am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,055 Posts
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
- #61,469
- Feb 4, 2009 3:20am Feb 4, 2009 3:20am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
I have one question though. How do you calculate the neckline at 1.2965? To me it should go below 1.2935 (the start of the left leg of the M)to be confident in the renewed down move.
GL
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #61,475
- Feb 4, 2009 3:29am Feb 4, 2009 3:29am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
i think its worth recalling the larger uptrend once again. tonights pa got as close to a breakout of the downwards channel started at 1.47 as possible. when it comes to such massive downtrends (this one 2000 pips + in the making), it will take some strong data that does not favor the dollar to break it. THis whole weak has been about artificially pumping the euro up (at least in my opinion)....in other words...breaking the massive downtrend now is absurd. 1.3060 was the perfect level to short off of...congrats to those who did it. Personally, i still see new lows in sight in the coming weeks.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
W and M reversal patterns are tricky, just like every other pattern really. The reason i chose 1.2965 as the neckline is because this pattern appears most clearly on the hourly chart. On the hourly chart we can see the candlesticks never close below that 1.2965 level (sometimes ignoring the spikes is best). That is my reason for choosing that level as neckline even though 1.2940 or 1.2915 have acted as strong support or resistance in the past. Note that right now we opened this hourly candlestick below that 1.2965 so where we close this candlestick...
My understanding of the market so far is that the main thing is the main trend. In this case it is still (I hope) down. When a countertrend news occur it just starts a retrace, which stops at one of the technical levels. When the news effect is consumed the price resumes it's main course.
Now we have about neutral news from EU so normally we should go down but not in aggressive fashion. I hope we will get some dollar positive news today to get a nice down momentum
At this point I have a hedge at 1.2902 with TP at 1.2945. The reson being that 1.2900 is an important psycological level and the recent down move is quit fast so we need at least a small retracement.
Peace
Riding the Dragon....
- #61,478
- Feb 4, 2009 3:38am Feb 4, 2009 3:38am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
before i go to sleep id like to make one final observation. the upwards channel we have started this week in is about to have the lower wall tapped again at 1.2900 or so. yesterdays move up broke through a strong resistance at 1.2915 which may act as strong support now. There may be a bounce there to the upside...to be seen. Carefull pipping all, if i offended anyone in the past 2 hours, i apologize im quite wasted
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.