EURUSD

I entered a small long at .3009 with a small TP at .3035, not sure if it will reach back to .3050. Keeping figures crossed. SL at .2970

Cheers

Good luck with that...Is that you Barry?

((Yo Pip Pilot, after seeing your avatar and then your long absence, I was fearing the worst... good to see you back.))

Anyway...
First of all, there isn't anybody on the planet that "knows.." so what's the point of those kind of questions other to create more forum exhaustion? Those kind of questions wear people out here after months of the same thing.

Nobody "knew" before this, nobody "knows" now, and nobody "knows" at any point after this. Ever. Period.

I'm trading down to 25xx on position trades becuz I think it will get there. I'll make and lose some pips along the way. I lost a'rd 60 this morning on a wide stop that I posted about and left for the day. I came back to a loss and already reshorted the high from 3030 and made back over half that loss and still up 25-30 as I type this.

Becuz the trade this morning was smaller than the most recent one, I'm already back at nearly to breakeven as my monitored trades tend to be sized differently than my untended ones.

If I thought it was going to 3300, I'd be longing the dips instead of shorting the rallies. You and everybody else here need to be trading what you think it will do, know why you think it will do that as best you can at this point in your trading journey, learn from your mistakes and also learn from your winners.

If all you do is learn from your losers, you still only have half a trading education. And some people will never learn anything at all except how to become a statistic. Same with claiming the credit for your wins and blaming your borker for your losses.

Here's my chart for why I think we're topped out, the same thing I thought this morning actually but it went higher anyway. I had allowed for that with a wide SL and it wasn't wide enough to avoid getting hit, but it was wide enough it didn't hurt me more than I was willing to get hit... that's trading. And I'm back in the same trade I was this morning, shorting a rally to my target zone.

So, the more intelligent the question, the more likely it is that folks here will "invest" some of their time in a helpful answer, otherwise some of our Ignore lists just get a little longer. Just sayin...

To the chart...
The fib is from the 1.4870 High to the 1.23 Low. The gray dotted TL is from the Daily Highs of the dates listed. That line begins at a horizontal S/R level created over several days in mid August and anchors at the other two. The shaded 1.47 High did not quite make it to that TL or even the previous High, but as it's more of a "zone" than a sharp line, I consider it a failed retest of that level, and the PA Collapse afterwards confirms it imo.

The thin white dotted Descending TL is drawn from the shoulders of the Daily candles shaded in green, and also represent Horizontal S/R levels as well ((shown in Aqua)). My daily candle begins at 5pm EST btw. The wicks above the TL do not concern me for this kind of chart. I'm more interested in what the market could sustain than what it could spike to. For a long term chart, that's one of the things I want to see in S/R levels. I have another TL on the wick tops that is usually hidden.

So we're obviously at a critical level. A break and clear will create a reevaluation on my part. I have no problem with that. If someone wants to say "I told you so", save it for someone who cares. I don't. If we continue to trade sideways thru the TL, it'll lose significance ((for me)) and I'll redraw the chart accordingly.

If it rejects again like it has so far ever since mid December, then I need not change anything, just keep looking for good entries and avoid "Tunnel Vision" along the way.

There's no straight lines in this bizness except the ones we draw on our charts, and they're not real...

Letting my short run and going to bed early. Careful trades all...

Anyone looking at 1.2700 area for this pair this week...?

Sorry no it's not Barry, thanks for the luck though i'll take what i can get these days

Your not Barry MaCockiner? lol j/k man...

Great analisys ak4x, thanks

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/782/shorteurusdpm0.jpg

Obviously, we will retest 1.2880!

US PAY REFORM] A $500,000 a year cap on compensation for snr executives at companies receiving Govt aid under the TARP is set to be announced by Tsy Sec Geithner, as soon as on Wed. A US Tsy official also says that any executive compensation above this limit will be paid in restricted stock that vests only after taxpayers are paid back. Companies that have already received Treasury funds must abide to the stricter oversight going forward. US banks will otherwise face restrictions on golden parachutes and higher transparency rules on expenses such as office renovation and jets as part of Obama's proposals to set a long term framework for executive pay reform.

The [NZD/YEN] remains rangy at the 45's, but the dips are getting shallower since the 44.19 low marked on Feb 2, and it looks like trying to breach the 45.90 neckline area, with actions being bottomish at the zone below 44.70. Basically the picture capped by the downtrending 21-days MA (48.38) remains similar to those in other Yen crosses. The Tenkan-sen at 46.38 is more immediately capping the market. The hourly Ichimoku cloud top at 45.20 is the short term base.



NZ DATA PREVIEW] Whilst the laggard wage cost index eased but still remained at a relatively high pace over Q4, NZ's Household Labour Force survey is set to show the labour market taking an abrupt turn for the worse, as the brakes are pulled on the economy. Jobs growth is expected to fall by 0.7% over the qtr after Q3's 0.1% gain, and result in the unemployment rate jumping to a fresh five year high of 4.7% from 4.2% prior. The unemployment data risks to be nasty, especially if Q3's participation rate of 68.7% fails to fall. RBNZ's forecast is on unemployment rising to 5.1% in FY2009 and peaking at 6.0% in the FY 2010. However with labour hoarding increasingly giving way to job cuts, its view looks way too optimistic. Data due Feb 4th 21.45GMT.

[European Preview] Risk aversion retreated to the back burner after the BOJ announced that it was buying shares of Japanese Banks and Aust announced a A$42 bln stimulus plan coupled with a 100 bps rate cut by the RBA. These, together with US Dec pending home sales coming in well above market expectations sent Wall St higher and USD and JPY lower.

[OIL] extended its rise back above $41/brl on the back of latest OPEC news that the cartel is mulling another 1mln barrel per day production cut at its March 15th meeting, if prices remain low. Gains have also been encouraged by the firmness in equity markets, which has seen the Nikkei jump over 2% after the Dow closed above the 8,000 mark. In the overnight NYMEX session, the contract already caught a firm bid on the OPEC rpt to settle 70c higher at $40.78/brl after hitting an earlier session high of $41.17. Though techs remain bearish, sustained upwards momentum into the $42/brl mark will be eyed closely, with a firm break on the latter to signal the potential end of a bearish trend.

After edging back up to 0.6510 on the back of a mixed set of data with retail sales better than f/c while building approvals came in worse than expected, the [AUD/USD] has since retreated back to reach an intraday low around the 0.6460 level filling buying orders at the 0.6470 level. The pair was dragged lower on Aud/Jpy selling by Japanese sec house and selling in the Aud/Nzd by a UK Clearer sending the cross to an intraday low around the 1.2650/60 level. Fresh bids at 0.6430 will provide immediate now and if risk aversion continues to retreat further into the background, another test of the upside looks likely.

Thanks a lot ak4x....

The [EUR/YEN] remains static around the mid 116's. Pension account's buying mid day cannot take the pair higher through the late NY high of 116.72 and the early morning high of 116.75. With the Jan 30 high of 116.63 on the daily picture, the 116.70 level forms a ceiling now.

euro looks like its going to retest high of 1.3050 if it dose im entering ashort to 1.2850 any thoughts???

OECD'S DE GEUS] says the worst is not over for the global slowdown, and adds that a world recession cannot be averted. Making the comments over a BB interview, Mr De Geus expects unemployment to rise world wide and warns of a greater risk of trade protectionism. Mr De Geus also commented that governments must stimulate demand and says Bank nationalization can be an option.

sounds good to me, but if 1.3058 breaks significantly I would prefer a long up to 1.31XX and if daily tl holds as resistance as it did before move then into the short position. Good luck anyways. sorry no chart as I have no idea how to upload them.

The [NZD/USD] rose to an intraday high around 0.5150 before running into selling from specs and an Asian name sending it down to an intraday low around the 0.5085. The pair was also weighed down by selling in the Nzd/Jpy by Japanese accounts from around the 46.00 level. However, it was supported by Aud/Nzd selling from above the 1.2700 handle to an intraday low around the 1.2665 level. With the impending employment data tomorrow likely to show a worsening of the jobs situation in NZ, rallies towards the day's high is likely to be met with sellers. Bids at 0.5070 continue to support while fresh offers at 0.5150 and more at 0.5180 will keep the upside at bay.

Silas, I should have started off by saying that post was NOT directed towards you personally, it just happened to meet the criteria, and I apologize if that sounded harsh towards you personally as the poster I quoted, that was not my intent at all. When I reread it again just now, I felt like a jerk for that.

Questions that generate answers that help you craft your trades now and in the future instead of dictating them for you are what I meant to emphasize.

its moving really slow to the top i dont think its going to far above 1.3050

CLosing longs 1.3034...4H hitting 100SMA

Happy with pips.

EDIT: Daily looks like it has more topside, so good luck longs.

edit2: 1H chart has bearish divergence...so short term retrace, daily might be strong for tomorrow however