Anyone have a trading system w/90% win rate? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Win in Trend and Win in Range 227 replies

Why and how Win-Win in Forex is possible 56 replies

New trading system hard to completely follow... anyone ever have this problem? 0 replies

Win 2 trades out of 10 and win 180 pips 8 replies

Anyone have a good position trade system? 4 replies

Attachments: Anyone have a trading system w/90% win rate?
Exit Attachments

Anyone have a trading system w/90% win rate?

  • #21
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:04am Feb 3, 2009 9:04am
I havnt long had live account, so results on live account not 90%. Out of 42 trade 32 profit and 10 loss.
On my demo account tho that i running for few months had over 200 odd trades and 90 somthing % win rate.
  • #22
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:20am Feb 3, 2009 9:20am
Quoting fry2010
I havnt long had live account, so results on live account not 90%. Out of 42 trade 32 profit and 10 loss.
On my demo account tho that i running for few months had over 200 odd trades and 90 somthing % win rate.
Sounds like you got something that works.. ha ha me I got a little paranoid again I closed out my profit positions that should have waited till 1.3000 E/U but I wanted my money now. I set up some trades as the market moved against me then up to hit my TP again. today 146 pips. I don't regret it, because i hate losing..

I'm just happy my general prediction is going as expected.. It's always better to be safe than sorry with forex... Dang it.. as i type this out my TP hit oh well.. Now I'm in an interesting situation.. take my win and wait for a retracement or let it ride since now I closed most of my trades with 191pips in the bank .. I think I'll just let it eat my profits incase it just goes south hit my SL and still be up for the day.

It would have made it easier if I would have traded yesterday in the range of 1.2800-1.2900 E/U.. Then I could have scaled down my risk today. Another day another lesson..
Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī....
  • #23
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:30am Feb 3, 2009 9:30am
I thought exactly the same as you. I wondered wether the broker wud screw me over somehow, and ended up pulling out of trades that wud have turned profit.
Live is deffinatly a different ball game to demo. Nothing has changed with prices, its just different emotions. I cud handle a position going against me in demo but in live i started to worry about it.
  • #24
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:35am Feb 3, 2009 9:35am
Quoting V3fx
How would you describe your "Keys" to trading then? Right now I'm at 89% was at 95% but got stupid and didn't stay the course with my lot size and abandoned my MM/Pip management.

Plus after hearing all the horror stories on how you can get screwed by market, I get paranoid after I winning so many pips. As if my broker is out to get me or just one big giant Ponzi Scheme.

When I trade a 40, 50, or 60 pip range... It's almost instinctive with 1-3 trades open at one time for the E/U. I used to be a scalper, but fully realized I needed a...
I share some of my market thoughts on my journal

if you are worry with your broker then diversify your capital over several brokers

i'm really sorry to say that based on my experience and from reading the post, you won't stay 90% for a year. but dun worry, if you have the trading basic skill, ie the ability to let go the hard earned money. then you should survive. later you will find another gem of the market and that will raise the risk appetite again. and hopefully the 2nd time would be much prosperous than the first because risk would be more appreciated...

and who knows, I might later beg you to be my fund manager
  • #25
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:43am Feb 3, 2009 9:43am
Quoting fry2010
I thought exactly the same as you. I wondered wether the broker wud screw me over somehow, and ended up pulling out of trades that wud have turned profit.
Live is deffinatly a different ball game to demo. Nothing has changed with prices, its just different emotions. I cud handle a position going against me in demo but in live i started to worry about it.

No doubt, that's why I watch CNBC while I trade because the spot price of E/U will pop on the ticker from time to time. So that why I should know if the live data is horse Shhh or not.

I got enough pips to let this one ride nicely if it does and hit my expect range for a bull run. Or whatever people want to call it, I don't read the forums a lot or read a ton of books. My greatest teacher is the live market, and take what it gives me.

My technical friend isn't talking to me for the moment. He just doesn't get how I trade, it's actually simple I look at the chart.. Look at pending economic news for an icebergs that may sink my trades. Fine a range you feel confident about and leave it to the market if you're right or not. Once market moves beyond your range you're done and wait for the next set up.

If that range is 40, 50 or 60 pips that's actually pretty easy, but forecasting 400-600 movement is a whole other beast and that is what I'm building a strategy behind. In the mean time I'll trade the 40-60 pip range within a 400-600 pip movement. Like in my other post, I'll know at the end of the year how well I can forecast my trading range.

I should be back to 90% tomorrow just 2-3 more trades to win. I'll pick a range before 6pm central time.
Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī....
  • #26
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:58am Feb 3, 2009 9:58am
Quoting Gift_Art
I share some of my market thoughts on my journal

if you are worry with your broker then diversify your capital over several brokers

i'm really sorry to say that based on my experience and from reading the post, you won't stay 90% for a year. but dun worry, if you have the trading basic skill, ie the ability to let go the hard earned money. then you should survive. later you will find another gem of the market and that will raise the risk appetite again. and hopefully the 2nd time would be much prosperous than the first because risk would be more...
Thanks for being constructive, yeah I don't want to claim to be some kind of oracle. Just want to know if what I do is normal. I can't come to that conclusion till I can some how maintain 90% with the rate of trades I enter for all of 2009. At this moment so far so good. All i do is maintain a margin level of 5000%. It helps me sleep easy at night that my account won't get annihilated.

If people want to see my live trading results, I don't mind but like i said before I made some stupid trades using higher lots. I might post it in two or 3 months if I can break even again. Then I can label my trading style a "recovery plan" For all those traders who may have no hope.

It's a work in progress no doubt, if I can trade in this environment for a full year. Then I have no doubt that when the economy recovers I'll still be trading and growing my account balance.

Lol the only problem is most Option Arm and Alt A loans have not reset yet that comes up in 2010, 2011, and half way through 2012. So the housing crisis continues and that's why I'm in the forex market... so long as my broker isn't one big ponzi sheme..otherwise... to quote comedian Russell Peters "someone is gonna a be hurt a real bad"
Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī....
  • #27
  • Feb 3, 2009 5:22pm Feb 3, 2009 5:22pm
how many pips for tp and sl you use for your system?
You will share your trading system?
Thank's
  • #28
  • Feb 4, 2009 1:32am Feb 4, 2009 1:32am
Quoting chrys
how many pips for tp and sl you use for your system?
You will share your trading system?
Thank's
Right now It's just past 1am central time and the E/U has a good chance of reaching 1.3100 before a major economic news release for the USD. I don't use a stop loss maybe at 500pips. The thing is I use small lot sizes. Example for a 1k account i just use 10cent pips. So if I lose it would only be 50 dollars. The great thing is once you understand my method of trading the pips add up. If I want to open up multiple positions I split that 10cent into 5 postions for 2cents each.

It safely maintains your margin and gives you a ton of room for error. Let's face it I don't think there is one trader who gets it right all the time within the first 30 minutes.

If I feel I can open positions and maintain a 5000-10,000% margin level and that most of my pending trades will close in less than 24 hours I would break it down like this

100 pip trading range
Perfect 10's (it's what i call it) = Open 1.3040 TP at 1.3050 then 1.3052 TP at 1.3062, Open at 1.3064 TP at 1.3074 etc... you get the idea of how i set up my 10pip TP. Btw the adjustment is due to the 2pip spread for the E/U. This will help you get started. The reason why I do this is to have one trade open at any one given time. It maintains margin level and collects pips while the market is moving within your trading range. Always keep your trading range within reason!

Start with a 40 pip range then grow from there first. Of course there is more to it than that if you want to average 200 or more pips a day Like I do. Once you realize that it's better to collect profits now rather than wait for one trade to hit 100pips the better off you are. You'll realize that when your trades clear you can set up pending trades again if it moves 60 pips against your trade before it clears 100 pip movement.

I'm sure you've experience a winning trade that is about a few pips away from TP only to have it evaporate and hit your SL. This helps you win pips before a trade can dig into your principle. That's why I execute soo many trades so incase that one trade goes against me I have enough pips won to ride out a retracement before the market goes my way. If it doesn't I have a game plan for that too.

This is my version of a comprehensive manual trading system. Right now I E/U position just closed for 30 pips I have one floating, but have 286 pip won this week so far. I didn't trade monday because I was already up 750 pips from last week and have learned from the past that you can be right one day and horribly wrong the next.

My set up is simple, you look at a chart .. plot an expected range and position your trades accordingly. If you happen to be on the wrong end of a trend there are ways to manage a losing trade as well. FYI I'm doing all my trading on a live mini account.
Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī....
  • #29
  • Feb 4, 2009 2:21am Feb 4, 2009 2:21am
I once developed the 10.3 so it won 95% of the time. Problem was the 5% losses were bigger than all the profits put together. So yes I know it can be done but ........................................ I love buts ........................
  • #30
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:01am Feb 4, 2009 9:01am
Quoting nanningbob
I once developed the 10.3 so it won 95% of the time. Problem was the 5% losses were bigger than all the profits put together. So yes I know it can be done but ........................................ I love buts ........................
That's what I wanted to hear. What kind of situation where you in for those losing trades and what margin level were you at?

I don't claim to make a living off this, because I don't have enough capital.... "but" it doesn't hurt to trade a system/ theory live with $50-250 over a one year period.

I know what you mean about those losses so I had to pick a range to trade within and be happy with it. Each day the E/U moves 100pips one way or another. Long as I know what the fundamental trend is I'll be okay. If not I have to win enough pips in the event of being wrong by 1000pips.

At this moment I have 1100pips in the last week and half. The first two weeks I was using high lot sizes that hurt my account more than anything else. That's why I was just going to keep my weekend job and see how trading goes over the course of the year with proper MM/ pip management.
Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī....
  • #31
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:12am Feb 4, 2009 10:12am
Quoting V3fx
That's what I wanted to hear. What kind of situation where you in for those losing trades and what margin level were you at?

I don't claim to make a living off this, because I don't have enough capital.... "but" it doesn't hurt to trade a system/ theory live with $50-250 over a one year period.

I know what you mean about those losses so I had to pick a range to trade within and be happy with it. Each day the E/U moves 100pips one way or another. Long as I know what the fundamental trend is I'll be okay. If not I have to win enough pips in...
The system I use wins 94% of the time over twelve years so I am happy with it. But it took me years to design and test.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #32
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:54am Feb 4, 2009 11:54am
  •  onu
  • | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: superior senior member | 746 Posts
Quoting turnip15
The system I use wins 94% of the time over twelve years so I am happy with it. But it took me years to design and test.

impressive do u trade the system on live acc. ?
  • #33
  • Feb 4, 2009 12:28pm Feb 4, 2009 12:28pm
Over the course of a couple months I actually developed my own EA that for the year 2008 would have traded with 93% win ratio, 18% drawdown, and a profit factor close to 5. It would have turned $1k into $100k! I turned it on live about 2 weeks ago and it works....

One problem, however, is that it is absolutely impossible to trade the strategy without the help of an expert advisor - because the conditions that it trades under are few and far between, and one would also have to keep an eye on too many indicators.

So, it is possible to write such an EA.
  • #34
  • Feb 5, 2009 2:55am Feb 5, 2009 2:55am
Quoting onu
impressive do u trade the system on live acc. ?
Of course..!
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #35
  • Feb 5, 2009 3:55am Feb 5, 2009 3:55am
Quoting turnip15
The system I use wins 94% of the time over twelve years so I am happy with it. But it took me years to design and test.
You should be millionaire already if you use the profit template.
  • #36
  • Feb 5, 2009 3:58am Feb 5, 2009 3:58am
Quoting Danoid
Over the course of a couple months I actually developed my own EA that for the year 2008 would have traded with 93% win ratio, 18% drawdown, and a profit factor close to 5. It would have turned $1k into $100k! I turned it on live about 2 weeks ago and it works....

One problem, however, is that it is absolutely impossible to trade the strategy without the help of an expert advisor - because the conditions that it trades under are few and far between, and one would also have to keep an eye on too many indicators.

So, it is possible to write such...
93% win ratio is from back test?
2008: 1K could turn to 100K!
2009: Interested to see how live acocunt going on, u start with 1K?
nice if by end of 2009 can gain 100K too.
  • #37
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:42am Feb 5, 2009 5:42am
with math n assuming random market
any system with 1 pip tp and 10 pips sl , has a 90% accuracy (well just below it due to spread)
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #38
  • Feb 5, 2009 10:28am Feb 5, 2009 10:28am
Quoting akukaya
93% win ratio is from back test?
2008: 1K could turn to 100K!
2009: Interested to see how live acocunt going on, u start with 1K?
nice if by end of 2009 can gain 100K too.
About 5 winning trades and 2 losers so far, unfortunately the losers wiped out all the gains, but the balance is about even.

I'm not sure it will make 100k this year, it all depends on market volatility (it works the best under high volatility). 2008 was just an extremely volatile year, with all the interest rate changes and sentiment about the economy.
  • #39
  • Feb 5, 2009 12:15pm Feb 5, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting Danoid
About 5 winning trades and 2 losers so far, unfortunately the losers wiped out all the gains, but the balance is about even.

I'm not sure it will make 100k this year, it all depends on market volatility (it works the best under high volatility). 2008 was just an extremely volatile year, with all the interest rate changes and sentiment about the economy.
Hmm what should i do? I have about 400 pips won with 3 trades floating at -350 pips... If the E/U moves into 1.3100 range Then I'll be fine if it does not.. Should just take a win for the week? Because if it works out then I'll be up 1350 pips in two weeks.. Then I'll scale down my risk since I can't be right all the time.

The worst part is i made most of my gains on Tuesday and didn't follow my instincts now I'm stuck with 2 losing trades and 1 that can turn around into a gain. It has forced me to only enter one extra trade at a time to close the gap on my losing trades
Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī....
  • #40
  • Feb 6, 2009 1:21pm Feb 6, 2009 1:21pm
Just so you know i started out with $250 got up to about $260 then got retarded and increased lot size fell to about $178.. then broke even again went on a streak to $314 .. then really got stupid again and fell down to 44 dollars.

Lol.. Now it just dawned on my how retarded I was, with the amount of trades i execute and pips won, why didn't I just stay the course? With that in mind I figure stick with a recovery plan. Now things are Looking better as now that I can take a 1500 pip loss and still be up 500 pips right now.

We'll see how the rest of the month goes and where my recovery is. Sorry.. Don't have the tools to make it into a pdf

Account:
Name: V3fx
 Currency: USD 2009 February 6, 18:49 Closed Transactions:

Summary: Deposit/Withdrawal: 250.00 Credit Facility: 0.00 Closed Trade P/L: -185.46 Floating P/L: -0.86 Margin: 1.00 Balance: 65.03 Equity: 64.17 Free Margin: 63.17 Details:

Gross Profit: 231.32 Gross Loss: 416.78 Total Net Profit: -185.46 Profit Factor: 0.56 Expected Payoff: -0.67 Absolute Drawdown: 205.03 Maximal Drawdown: 269.05 (85.55%) Relative Drawdown: 85.55% (269.05) Total Trades: 276
Short Positions (won %): 224 (89.29%)
Long Positions (won %): 52 (98.08%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 251 (90.94%)
Loss trades (% of total): 25 (9.06%)
Largest profit trade: 10.03 loss trade: -60.00
Average profit trade: 0.92 loss trade: -16.67
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 63 (12.21)
consecutive losses ($): 4 (-119.10)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 91.49 (43)
consecutive loss (count): -119.10 (4)
Average consecutive wins: 17
consecutive losses: 2
Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī....
1 trader viewing now