EURUSD

EURUSD 1,2965 in.. short

You did? How come? Why that specific point?

it will stop on 1.3000???

There could be a bounce off this *area*, yes.

It will probably break through the 1.30 level, maybe go up 20 to 40 pips, then fall back down below 1.30 as a false breakout.

i hope that there will be bounce from 1.3000 and will go deep down

Well I did the full on EURUSD and USDCHF
last short EURUSD at 1.2995
last long USDCHF at 1,1431

[US HOME VACANCY] The US homeowner vacancy rate rose 2.9% in Q4, matching the record set in Q1 of last year, up from 2.8% in Q3. The rental vacancy rate also bounced back to 10.1%, the high set in Q1. The ownership rate, meanwhile, fell to 67.5% (seasonally adjusted) from 67.7% in Q3 and 67.8% a year ago. The ownership rate, as part of the mortgage and real estate bubble, had gotten extremely high, and is now closer to recent historic norms. The vacancy rate more or less has to go up to accomplish that. However, the high rates of vacancy in nominally owner-occupied and rented homes keeps downward pressure on prices and rents. There is a long way to go before prices stabilize, given these vacancy rates.


[SNB ON USD SWAPS] SNB to extend Usd swap accord with Fed and continue to offer Usd liquidity as need be. It looks LIKE that SNB made announcement before Fed did officially. The Fed is confirming the extension of swap lines with other central banks to Oct 30. This applies to the swap lines with these other central banks: Australia, Brazil, BoC, Denmark, BoE, ECB, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norges Bank, Singapore, Riksbank. But Bank of Japan will consider the extension at its next Monetary Policy meeting. The Federal Reserve action to extend the swap lines was taken by the FOMC.

waiting for the pullback to add some more

Well, so far this has been a text book trade, break of the resistance, re-test (also 38.2% fib from rise), break of minor resistance @1.297, bounce on major resistance @1.30 ... now PA will tell what's next...

I wouldn't expect a straight away fall back down, let's wait and see if there is a significant retracement. So far still looks bulish, let's not jump the gun, 3 plans possible here, go long after break 1.30 (or re-test after break), stay sideways between 1.2960-1.3000, south only if it retouches 1.29, i guess 1.29 is now the key point for shorts again.

market isnt moving anyone with n idea of a direction?

i would say south

[FOCUS COMMENT] - Overall a picture of extremely limited interest in FX from market speculators with IMM accounts only long a net 177 mln Usds in the week to Jan 27th, compared to Usd 300 mln in the prior week. See page.


[CABLE] has now tripped that 1.4355/60 fibo and a fresh session high of 1.4394 has just been registered. The headline has gained over two cents since Europe's open. There is talk of profit taking interests into the 1.4400 mark but we suggest keeping an even better eye on the 1.4430 area and the 20-day mov ave. In the last few days, we have seen a number of attempts at this line, only to fail and reverse. Stops above 1.4400 and this 1.4430 zone, the 20-day last tripped to sustained effect in the second week of Jan. Cable last at 1.4380.

[US HOME VACANCY] The US homeowner vacancy rate rose 2.9% in Q4, matching the record set in Q1 of last year, up from 2.8% in Q3. The rental vacancy rate also bounced back to 10.1%, the high set in Q1. The ownership rate, meanwhile, fell to 67.5% (seasonally adjusted) from 67.7% in Q3 and 67.8% a year ago. The ownership rate, as part of the mortgage and real estate bubble, had gotten extremely high, and is now closer to recent historic norms. The vacancy rate more or less has to go up to accomplish that. However, the high rates of vacancy in nominally owner-occupied and rented homes keeps downward pressure on prices and rents. There is a long way to go before prices stabilize, given these vacancy rates.

[COMMODITIES CHOPPY] in recent trade, with oil finally piercing psychological support at $40/brl and down to a new, albeit marginal $39.65 low, but rebounding with EU stocks and a firmer opening tone on Wall St ahead of the 15.00GMT US data. The latter was significantly better than expected with pending home sales rebounding by 6.3% in Dec, and from a slightly upgraded -3.7% (was -4%) previously, although this was partly corrective after several big monthly declines in a row. Feb Nymex crude now back above $40, but actually falling further behind still more resilient Gold that nudged up to a new intraday peak on spot at $912.10/oz not long ago. Bullion benefiting from a bout of FX weakness in the FX markets, largely due to risk aversion unwinding and despite the more encouraging US housing update.

how do you think do we will break 1.3000 or there will be put a lot of sell orders and eur will not get them through?

[CABLE] knocked off its highs (1.4394) by chancellor [DARLING]'s downbeat assessment of the economic outlook. Darling says that the UK is facing an extraordinary downturn, and the UK housing market has meant that the economy has been more greatly affected by the crisis than others. The Fin Min also says that the UK must tighten up its supervisory regime, whilst he adds that there will be fewer small banks in the future. This enough to knock Cable off its perch (now 1.4335) but the Pound little affected against the Euro. 0.9080 the key pivot here (trade now 0.9045) 15:45 GMT - [COMMODITIES CHOPPY] in recent trade, with oil finally piercing psychological support at $40/brl and down to a new, albeit marginal $39.65 low, but rebounding with EU stocks and a firmer opening tone on Wall St ahead of the 15.00GMT US data. The latter was significantly better than expected with pending home sales rebounding by 6.3% in Dec, and from a slightly upgraded -3.7% (was -4%) previously, although this was partly corrective after several big monthly declines in a row. Feb Nymex crude now back above $40, but actually falling further behind still more resilient Gold that nudged up to a new intraday peak on spot at $912.10/oz not long ago. Bullion benefiting from a bout of FX weakness in the FX markets, largely due to risk aversion unwinding and despite the more encouraging US housing update.

and now to test 1.3000

short at 1.3000

how far can bulls be able to push up...?