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EURUSD

  • #60,821
  • Feb 2, 2009 4:56pm Feb 2, 2009 4:56pm
Does anyone have a clear view of what the euro is going to do its @ 1.2813 right now
  • #60,822
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:07pm Feb 2, 2009 5:07pm
1hr 21sma converges with M2 right now, that's my first target ((white circle)) upon clear break of DP... but there is some stiff support to push thru first at the figure to open that area up.

Longer range target after that would be the lower BB area ((call it the 2680ish)) on the 2hr that converges with M1 pivot ((green circle)).

I'm scaling out however on the way and leaving remainders to run unless the move is still premature, in which case I get stopped out at profit somewhere and then I'll re-evaluate.

I'm not considering longs right now tho, except maybe for some very quick shorts at the targets trying to catch the retraces, high risk and low reward trades tho for me... I'm not crazy about them tho as it's too easy to give back the pips I just made.

It's easier to catch the tops for the follow on run back down if it looks like it will continue, otherwise, I'll unplug myself and go to bed early.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #60,823
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:08pm Feb 2, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting CAnthonyMVE
Does anyone have a clear view of what the euro is going to do its @ 1.2813 right now
Until the market shows its hand, it's pretty pointless trying to predict.It could go either way but right now nothing clear cut.

my 2 cents
  • #60,824
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:14pm Feb 2, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting Farstrider
I'll try to answer your question carefully...

15. Than we will see a move back to party if by that time the forex market is not closed/abandoned as a concept and/or a new transatlantic currency set up.

I hope we could help each other and share our (well researched) views in our mutual effort to make something out of this crazy crisis.
Sweet reply, can't wait for you to get sober... not completely sure we're on on exactly the same page yet, but I think we're in the same book anyway for starters. Check your pm.
FUBAR...
  • #60,825
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:22pm Feb 2, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting Farstrider
I'll try to answer your question carefully, as I think that if we outline correctly the future events we can make big money. I am fresh back from the dancing bar so bare with me if I am not clear enough. Hope to resume the real discussion tomorrow.

So:

1. US has been living on credit for the past ? decades

2. The US debt can not be repaid from incomes generated by US economy (can't give you the exact figures. haven't done real macroeconomics study since university but I know this)

3. The reason US could borrow any amount before the crisis...
NOT
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,826
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:40pm Feb 2, 2009 5:40pm
[US] Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will outline the Obama administration's much awaited financial-rescue plan in a speech next week, according to a Treasury official quoted in the WSJ. The plan will include an effort to help homeowners in danger of foreclosure, as well as additional steps to shore up the financial sector. Per the article, the administration has yet to finalize its plans for the heart of the bank rescue; but is considering a two-pronged approach that would further help banks by having the government buy a portion of their bad assets while offering guarantees against future losses on some of the remainder. Wary optimism is likely to dominate ahead of any announcement, with S&P futures currently trading modestly lower after the actual index fell 0.05% on Monday.

A market moving session awaits Aussie markets; with trade data followed by the release of a second stimulus package and the Govt's full mid Budget review all due ahead of RBA's rate decision at 3.30GMT.

More grim news and data out of NZ kept the [NZD/USD] on the backfoot for most of the session yest as the pair fell from an earlier high of 0.5090 to an o/n low of 0.4961 before recovering to open this morning above the 0.5000 handle. The sell off began after the release Q4 wages which fell more than f/c providing more impetus for the RBNZ to continue to lower interest rates over coming months. Also, comments from the NZ Treasury that the economy will stay in recession for the next few months also weighed on the pair. The pair will remain on the defensive with market chatter making the rounds that the NZ interest rates currently at 3.5% may eventually fall to 2%. Buying orders at 0.4970 by exporters and selling orders at 0.5050 by specs will keep the range this session.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,827
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:41pm Feb 2, 2009 5:41pm
Nothing like watching my EUR/GBP crawl for an hour on +- 1 pip and then see it stop me out in one 10 pip hit. Why does it sometimes feel like the market is out to get me and no one else.... I bet it will probably now freefall just to kick me in the teeth!
  • #60,828
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:43pm Feb 2, 2009 5:43pm
The [AUD/NZD] started the Asian session yest above the 1.2500 handle before falling to a low of 1.2460 where bids quickly brought it back up towards an o/n high of 1.2620. The pair has since retreated back to open this morning around yest's opening levels ahead of the impending RBA decision at 3.30 GMT. A 100 bps cut has been factored in by the market so anything more or less will generate volatility in the pair. However, market players reckon that a 100 bps cut will also weigh on the pair as the Aussie interest rates will again be lower than its Kiwi cousin. Aust trade data due at 0.0030 GMT and PM Rudd's announcement of the 2nd stimulus plan at 1.30 GMT will keep market players on edge.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,829
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:44pm Feb 2, 2009 5:44pm
Quoting kwcmau
Nothing like watching my EUR/GBP crawl for an hour on +- 1 pip and then see it stop me out in one 10 pip hit. Why does it sometimes feel like the market is out to get me and no one else.... I bet it will probably now freefall just to kick me in the teeth!
that thing can move 400 pips in the time it takes to take a shower.. you need wide sl or dont play with it..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,830
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:52pm Feb 2, 2009 5:52pm
We will see what happen.
  • #60,831
  • Feb 2, 2009 5:57pm Feb 2, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting D&d
We will see what happen.
My setup
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  • #60,832
  • Feb 2, 2009 6:08pm Feb 2, 2009 6:08pm
EUR looking to touch 60 SMA on the 15min.
In vicinity of 23% fibo as well.
I'm expecting a strong move in either direction.
  • #60,833
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:13pm Feb 2, 2009 7:13pm
im not sure what just happened but all i can say is that it was dumb as hell.
  • #60,834
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:17pm Feb 2, 2009 7:17pm
well i shorted again from M3 after taking profit on the others so off we go again. i hope.
FUBAR...
  • #60,835
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:20pm Feb 2, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting primasoldi
EUR looking to touch 60 SMA on the 15min.
In vicinity of 23% fibo as well.
I'm expecting a strong move in either direction.
I run 20, 60, 100 and 200 SMA, and noticed same thing on 15M. Might be the MA to watch for support on retraces if this bull move continues, possibly?
  • #60,836
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:44pm Feb 2, 2009 7:44pm
This has the makings of a "going nowhere" channel this evening on the 20m between the Pivots and/or QP's...

Boring, but easy trading if it develops.

Green line is Central Pivot at 2842, which ALSO happens to be the QP for the DP/M3 zone, so has a strong attractive effect on price unless/until it breaks away from it completely in either direction. Bears watching.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #60,837
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:49pm Feb 2, 2009 7:49pm
Quoting ak4x
This has the makings of a "going nowhere" channel this evening on the 20m between the Pivots and/or QP's...

Boring, but easy trading if it develops.

Green line is Central Pivot at 2842, which ALSO happens to be the QP for the DP/M3 zone, so has a strong attractive effect on price unless/until it breaks away from it completely in either direction. Bears watching.
ak4x did you receve my PM, thanks in advance.
The Chonchy
  • #60,838
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:52pm Feb 2, 2009 7:52pm
Does anyone see this retesting 2900 again soon? I'm short from 2869, but I want to make sure I protect my profits in this.
  • #60,839
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:55pm Feb 2, 2009 7:55pm
My view is: if it break 2900, it will reach 2990 definitely. 1 hour chart 60 EMA
21 ema, fib R1 will tell us.
What goes up must come down.
  • #60,840
  • Feb 2, 2009 7:56pm Feb 2, 2009 7:56pm
Quoting GrnEydGuy
Does anyone see this retesting 2900 again soon? I'm short from 2869, but I want to make sure I protect my profits in this.
Eventually, I think it will, but it's your trade .
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