EURUSD

if this pair does go much higher its a an idication of how aussie and nz economys health... making my auss.kiwi vacation much cheaper

just looking at the 30 minute chart and feeling that a double top formation might take shape. anyone else thinking the same?

Here is what I see....we need to break the small upper channel on the 30 min chart to see more down. Im holding a short at 2860 or so so id like to see that happen =p

Thanks for the info. lindee
Gator thank you!

Price will reach 1.2500, Need some tolerance...

[AUSTRALIA] The Government will announce its much anticipated second stimulus package later today. The package will be aimed at nation building and creating more jobs as the languishing economy faces its first recession in 20 over years. Treasurer Swan has not provided any further details on the size of the package but speculation is rife that infrastructure spending and tax cuts will be included. The package's release follows comments yest by PM Rudd that the Govt's budget would slip into a temporary deficit due to a A$115 bln tax hole. Swan has added that last yrs A$10.4bln pump priming package has had a positive impact; and urges banks to fully pass on today's rate cut, in which RBA is set to cut official rates by at least 1% at 3.30GMT.

Looks like it's going down to me, but downside may be limited to 1.2780, which does not offer very good risk/reward when a break to the upside is just as likely on support @1.2820 area. Lots of MA's converging around here and I can't justify taking any positions right now.

Thats what im looking for
2540-2500. Lower of down channel.

looks bullish to me .. higher highs ... higher lows.. plus your tendline top puts it right at my entry posted hours ago od 2944.. if it does stop at a double id short it also..

hmm you make a good point but we broke out of the upper channel for now. bounced off new pivot of 2715 and pullback. im still very new to this but trying to learn.

if it breaks your lower trendline all bets are off... and this ishould be only temp longer trend is down...but nothing written in stone here. i also have a higher entry ..hundreds of pips higher.. but this one will be if all hell breaks loose.. unlikley... but if it did it would not break the bigger bearish trend,,

Look at the trend lines drawn from A (Wednesday) to B (Thursday). Price bounced off this line to the pip a few hours ago. I'd say that we're heading for another sell off in the short-term.

it broke and i appreciate your opinion. I can tell by your posts that you are very well versed in this and i look forward to learning from you. My opinion shouldnt be taken very heavily as ive only been trading for a few months live but doing my best to stay on top of the game.

oh i forgot to add personally its on the lower end of your trendline.. so i would not buy now either.. if you have to do a smaller then normal position.. remember the longer trend is down. and its all likely the downtrend will continue..eventually

Yeah i said earlier i had a short from 2850 level. No long for me =p.

damn missed that drop

EU pivots for today from 5pm. mind that break down from the central to the DP at the 5pm daily open... might be a clue there for asia either way.

PA will reveal all. ((read that with a deep mystical sounding tone in your head..))

We're in this Update since Sunday night:



EUR/USD Sell near 1.2847
GBP/USD Sell near 1.4497
AUD/USD Sell near 0.6417
NZD/USD Sell near 0.5117

USD/CAD Buy near 1.2243
USD/CHF Buy near 1.1567

After reaching the day's high of 0.6377 during the Australasian session, the [AUD/USD] encountered heavy selling after the announcement of further falls in the Aust Q4 housing sector and house price index. The pair was eventually sold down to an o/n low of 0.6248 during the European session as market players speculate that the RBA will cut rates by at least 100 bps if not more to jump start the sagging economy. The pair which is currently trading above the 0.6300 handle will be severely tested on the downside if the accompanying statement by the RBA sounds bearish. Additionally, Aust PM Rudd announcement of the 2nd stimulus plan some time today will also keep the pair volatile. Buying orders at 0.6230 and selling orders at 0.6360 will keep the range ahead of the the Dec trade data and RBA decision.

I'll try to answer your question carefully, as I think that if we outline correctly the future events we can make big money. I am fresh back from the dancing bar so bare with me if I am not clear enough. Hope to resume the real discussion tomorrow.

So:

1. US has been living on credit for the past ? decades

2. The US debt can not be repaid from incomes generated by US economy (can't give you the exact figures. haven't done real macroeconomics study since university but I know this)

3. The reason US could borrow any amount before the crisis is that it is/perceived/ as the most powerfull and solid economy in te world, without a real competition

4. The reason US can borrow now is the momentum from the above (i.e. safe haven, or a solid rock in a stormy sea)

5. The above is just a perception for reasons 1 and 2 and a lot more, which I can not properly put right now

6. The debt has to be paid NOW (meanung most probably this year, 2010 the latest)

7. The debt CAN NOT be paid with the money US government has or by any ravenues generated by the US economy

9. There is a serious doubt allready in the foundations of US economy (the numbers just don't add up)

10. EVERYBODY is in serious trouble and in need for cash

11. US is about to get in a harsh deflationary spiral. The money just doesn't flow properly and for the near future it can only get worse

12. All the above leaves the only option to use the monetary policy, or simply printing money on a scale never known in post WWII world (it is a cruel way to get out of debt but if anybody sees another option, please let me know)

13. EU has nothing similar to the US debt and the entire structure of household finance/credit is much more down to earth

Now I see things developing in the following way:

1. When the first signs of US bancrupcy start hitting in the face the pros will get long in a big way ( I suspect a lot of them do in the moment)

2. The forex crowd will get the hint adding more (by that time we should be in the 1.5 -1.6 area I think)

3. the panic will spread outside the forex crowd making preople all over the world to desperately seek a value starage. EU being the next biggest economy, not yet hit by the monetary troubles will get a massive EUR demand. It is imppossible to see these events clearly but 1.8-2 can prove to be quite a modest assumption. Have in mind that I am talking about a panic not finding a real equilibrium

14. EU has massive management/structure problems and we are yet to see record levels of unemplyment and social tensions. There is not much more behind the EUR than behind the dollar. A US defolt would shatter EU economy like a Tyson's punch. A record strong currency would practiclly prohibit the export.

15. Than we will see a move back to party if by that time the forex market is not closed/abandoned as a concept and/or a new transatlantic currency set up.


I hope we could help each other and share our (well researched) views in our mutual effort to make something out of this crazy crisis.

Happy dreams to all