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  • #60,721
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:12am Feb 2, 2009 10:12am
Quoting Farstrider
My feeling is that we will definitely test the 1.23 and maybe even go to 1.18 in the near weeks. However I still expect a retrace from 1.27 to at least 1.29 hoping for 1.30 to get a better position. Will this be a fact is determined right now I beleive

I agree with you and adding that Eur is in 3rd wave down on weakly chart, i guess we'll c the 1.0000 again
  • #60,722
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:12am Feb 2, 2009 10:12am
Quoting Farstrider
My feeling is that we will definitely test the 1.23 and maybe even go to 1.18 in the near weeks. However I still expect a retrace from 1.27 to at least 1.29 hoping for 1.30 to get a better position. Will this be a fact is determined right now I beleive

Hmm interesting. If I'm not mistaken 1.30 is where R3 is located. Well, we shall. If it happens as you say and resistance is not broker I am definitely adding to my positions.

1.18 would quite interesting. I must say what a great ride it has been from 1.60
  • #60,723
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:13am Feb 2, 2009 10:13am
Quoting allinvain
I'm holding on to several short positions from as high as 1.3320. Well I've got 1 at 1.3320, another at 1.3285, 1.3215, 1.3166, 1.3161 (here I felt a bit courageous so I entered again after taking the first position at this level), 1.3135, 1.2939, and last but not least 1.2873.

Now my question is this. I'm not quite sure how to interpret this weird news data event. I was expecting it to push the euro a bit lower. I was expecting eur/usd to test 1.2329 where I have my TP set for all positions.

Am I dreaming here or is there a change that we will...
It's either going to retest and pass the low, or not quite test the low and rebound...too early to tell...
  • #60,724
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:13am Feb 2, 2009 10:13am
next time it will reach over 1.2825 or above I will short again tp 1.2762 , now already tp at 1.2788 from shorts .
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #60,725
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:18am Feb 2, 2009 10:18am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
It's either going to retest and pass the low, or not quite test the low and rebound...too early to tell...
You're definitely right. I need a little bit more patience I guess. Although I don't see much of a follow through so I'm thinking this baby is just going to linger around for a while before possibly diving down again.

I'm going to take a nap folks. I wish you all happy and profitable trading!
  • #60,726
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:21am Feb 2, 2009 10:21am
Quoting Sponser
I agree with you and adding that Eur is in 3rd wave down on weakly chart, i guess we'll c the 1.0000 again
Hmm that's possible but seems more like fishful thinking to me. I beleive that there is nothing behind the dollar. The only force playing at the moment is the perception of US as safe haven in unsafe times.
The massive devaluation of the $, the "quantative easing" seems inevitable. I just can't see any possible hidden jacks up the sleevs of US administration. I expect the panic that will follow to make me rich with sharp move towars 1.8 or maybe even 2.
If anyone is following closely the agenda in US (political procesess, timelines for decision making, ect.) please share
Riding the Dragon....
  • #60,727
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:24am Feb 2, 2009 10:24am
save some pips for me.. taking a nap...got some entrys hopefully working while i sleep with tight sl ........ eu entry 2944..... gu 4310 both short..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,728
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:26am Feb 2, 2009 10:26am
I was waiting to see 1.2806 holding today, didn't happen.
Noise, I forget always to mention possible noise.

My average shorts are above 1.3350, so no problem not being all day seeing PA.

My opinion is already known!!
  • #60,729
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:36am Feb 2, 2009 10:36am
i dont think there is much behind dollar eather but when trade deficit is going down dollar will strengthen....americans are not spending, their saving further strengthening dollar... thats part of the reason the yens so strong.. they save!! u.s.d. is a dog, but best in breed.... there is no doubt u.s. is printing money but so is everyone else. so this equals out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,730
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:39am Feb 2, 2009 10:39am
Bank FX flow Poll
Deutsche- possibility of Euro at 1.50-1.60 over the next two quarters.

Long term positioning.
Pivot Boss in the making~
  • #60,731
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:47am Feb 2, 2009 10:47am
Quoting gatorinla
i dont think there is much behind dollar eather but when trade deficit is going down dollar will strengthen....americans are not spending, their saving further strengthening dollar... thats part of the reason the yens so strong.. they save!! u.s.d. is a dog, but best in breed.... there is no doubt u.s. is printing money but so is everyone else. so this equals out.
you really think americans in general are saving money?. I think the majority is too overcome with debt and cant afford to buy anything. Instead they are caught in a bad month to month scenario where paying credit cards and buying in bulks from places like Costco is whats happening. Lets not forget the millions who already lost their homes. Correct me if im wrong
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #60,732
  • Edited 10:48am Feb 2, 2009 10:48am | Edited 10:48am
economy that robust huh? last i heard u.s was buying less imports .. and a stronger eur is just gonna make us buy less.. explain your thinking. im missing something..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,733
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:48am Feb 2, 2009 10:48am
Quoting Farstrider
I beleive that there is nothing behind the dollar. The only force playing at the moment is the perception of US as safe haven in unsafe times...

I expect the panic that will follow to make me rich with sharp move towars 1.8 or maybe even 2.
I actually don't really disagree with you on your first 2 points... However, I've been asking this question periodically for some months now but no satisfactory answers to date ((all the while shorting the yoorow))...

Here it is again... if the USD collapses, why and what will fuel the Euro to such heights in it's wake? That's like running out of the burning theatre into the street where it's safer and then have the burning building collapse on top of you...

Some one replied once that the swissy will reign supreme in the vacumn of solid currencies, for the reason that it always has in the past. In case anyone hasn't noticed yet, this isn't the past... Whatever strength the swissy has is based on perception ((and hope)) as much as anything else in my view, altho I have to admit ((again)) I don't really follow it much.

Here's a thought on swissy I found interesting from last December, says it better than I can from people who are smarter than I...

"While there is no firm answer for the underlying strength in the Swissy, a couple of factors should be considered. Firstly, there is no doubt that world central banks are entering into an era of low interest rates... with deepening recession risks in the Eurozone, ECB will likely be forced to follow Fed and BoE and cut rates again some time next year. Hence, the so called unwinding of carry trades will resume eventually..."
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2008121872652/

So my question remains... why will EU get to 1.80/2.00 levels...? Ever.
FUBAR...
  • #60,734
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:51am Feb 2, 2009 10:51am
Quoting psiholog
you really think americans in general are saving money?. I think the majority is too overcome with debt and cant afford to buy anything. Instead they are caught in a bad month to month scenario where paying credit cards and buying in bulks from places like Costco is whats happening. Lets not forget the millions who already lost their homes. Correct me if im wrong
your right but the savings report out today said just that.. check the news out.. u.s. is not spending and percentage of savings are going up..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,735
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:55am Feb 2, 2009 10:55am
Quoting allinvain
I'm holding on to several short positions from as high as 1.3320. Well I've got 1 at 1.3320, another at 1.3285, 1.3215, 1.3166, 1.3161 (here I felt a bit courageous so I entered again after taking the first position at this level), 1.3135, 1.2939, and last but not least 1.2873.

Now my question is this. I'm not quite sure how to interpret this weird news data event. I was expecting it to push the euro a bit lower. I was expecting eur/usd to test 1.2329 where I have my TP set for all positions.

Am I dreaming here or is there a change that...
I see a big support near these numbers, watch the the 2 days period and you will see it easily. Also ADX is getting lower.
It is similar to what I saw a few weeks ago.
  • #60,736
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:57am Feb 2, 2009 10:57am
dont take my word for it.. but check this out..i personally am spending less also..

WASHINGTON (Feb. 2) - Consumer spending fell for a record sixth straight month in December as recession-battered households, worried about surging layoffs, boosted their savings rates to the highest level since May. The Commerce Department says personal consumption spending, which accounts for the largest portion of total economic activity, dropped by 1 percent in December. That was slightly worse than the 0.9 percent decline economists expected.
Incomes, reflecting a wave of layoffs, fell for a third straight month, dropping by 0.2 percent.
Worried about the possibility of more job cuts, Americans boosted their savings rate to 3.6 percent of their after-tax incomes in December. That was the highest level since tax rebate checks temporarily pushed the rate up to 4.8 percent in May.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,737
  • Feb 2, 2009 10:58am Feb 2, 2009 10:58am
Quoting ak4x
I actually don't really disagree with you on your first 2 points... However, I've been asking this question periodically for some months now but no satisfactory answers to date ((all the while shorting the yoorow))...

Here it is again... if the USD collapses, why and what will fuel the Euro to such heights in it's wake? That's like running out of the burning theatre into the street where it's safer and then have the burning building collapse on top of you...

Some one replied once that the swissy will reign supreme in the vacumn of solid currencies,...
Amen and dito
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,738
  • Feb 2, 2009 11:03am Feb 2, 2009 11:03am
Quoting gatorinla
your right but the savings report out today said just that.. check the news out.. u.s. is not spending and percentage of savings are going up..
If I had a dollar for every time I trusted the news, I'd be a bum already living on the streets right now. People are spending less yes, but how do the people who made that report know what people are doing with their money? Let's not forget the american way of life is credit driven. Up until last year it was a simple decision. "I will purchase a new tv or a new car, put it on my credit card, I'll pay the monthly bills for the next 10 years". Banks are not freely giving credit like that anymore, instead while feds cut rates, interest rates on credit cards are still going up and banks are not freely lending anymore making it more difficult for the consumer to do what was so easy in the past, accumulate credit card debt. Instead now most are forced to focus only on paying that debt that has accumulated over the years and until that is done with, hard to say when consumer spending will return to normal. Which is also what makes it so difficult to determine when this recession will end...and stimulus plans like the current one are created to increase spending...just my 2 cents
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #60,739
  • Feb 2, 2009 11:04am Feb 2, 2009 11:04am
In this hinky market, I'm saving more by trading less...
FUBAR...
  • #60,740
  • Feb 2, 2009 11:10am Feb 2, 2009 11:10am
*L* my bitch is too much spending got us into this crap.. they sent a stimuli check last year.. they could have saved millions in stamps and mailed it directly to the saudis prince.. cause that where it went!!!!!!!!!!! period!!!!
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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