EURUSD

EURO-DOLLAR: Extends lows to $1.2865, as rate feels knock on effect of
the break back below Y115.00 in euro-yen, but reported stronger demand
placed toward $1.2860 ($1.2861 Asia low Jan26) so far able to contain.
Rate bounces back to $1.2880. Resistance remains in place to $1.2925.

Provided by: Market News International

I really hate doubting myself...guess i gotta get over that as a trader.... bounced right off my support line at 2962 or so and i was too chicken to go long =/. I guess with time comes that trust of your intuition.

in a upside assumptions .. I think that will happen only if USDCHF goes below 1.1529

Weekly USD/CHF pivot at 1.4162...looking for a bounce off that..

by that time EU should be at the top of the down channel for a nice short.

[COMMODITIES] [OIL] trapped a a very narrow o/nite range (Usd 41.31/42.05) as the conflicting forces of global recession run against OPEC cuts. Some reports that the OPEC Sec Gen has asked Norway to cut back prod. The Azeri's y/day hinted again that they may rein back. At the same time, the collapse in Jpn ind prod by almost 10% m/m has highlighted this side of the equation, while Jpn crude imports, although bouncing m/m, are down 6.5% y/y. These demand concerns have hit [COPPER] which is hovering around session lows at Usd 3203, although o/nite trading thin on Chinese Lunar New Year holiday. However, signs of global growth failing further has given [GOLD] a lift. The SPDR ETF hit yet another record in terms of bullion holdings. Despite some light fund profit taking, the yellow metal is hitting session highs at Usd 916 despite chatter of high prices blunting physical demand.

[EUR/USD] still trading very heavily despite a hawkish tilt to Liikanen's comments and now Germany's Finance minister who does not see the Euro in danger from the widening of bond spreads in Europe, all he describes this phenomena as worrying. Note a German Govt spokesman has also said there will be no decision on a bank rescue today. We continue to hear of good bids today into 1.2860, but given the levels technical significance it is also certain that system stops will exist in good size below.

[ECB'S LIIKANEN] warns against very low/zero interest rates in a speech published on the Bank of Finland website yesterday. He says he cannot rule out that monetary policy has been 'too light' and based on historical evidence he concludes that cutting interest rates to zero is not necessarily a solution to the credit squeeze. Although inflation has slowed sharply, he sees a lower deflation risk in Europe than in the US, especially as long as inflation expectations are anchored, and this has to be taken into account when making interest rate decisions.

[BOE BLANCHFLOWER] o/n was more dovish than usual talking of the possibility of a prolonged period of economic under-performance, more severe than early 1990s given the global synchronised nature of the current slowdown. The 90's and early 80's recession saw growth contract for five successive quarters and if the past is any indication then UK GDP is likely to continue contracting until at least H209. Similarly, unemployment rose by 3.8% in the 90s and 5.5% in the 80's, which would point to the unemp rate (claimant count) heading towards 8% from current 3.6%. Consequently, given the risk of a prolonged contraction, BoE must consider the possibility of CPI moving close to or below zero, with interest rates remaining sufficiently low to meet the CPI target. He adds that the BoE now has alternative monetary policy tools at its disposal and could use these even before rates hit zero.

Looks like they might want to try to push past 12860 to find the stops.

Not too many stops, I guess.

[CBR] Gov [IGNATYEV] says that the CB will not let the [ROUBLE] fall beyond 41 against the basket and if necessary, will intervene and use rates. The RUB is moving ever closer to the 41 level that the CBR declared as the new floor only last Friday, hitting lows of 40.20 today. After the most rapid depreciation in a decade this week, the CBR is in a difficult spot. We expect the market for RUB loans will remain frozen as nobody is willing to lend in a currency that is seen as going only one way. This is damaging to the economy - the govt has already said it will have to cut budget spending this year. The CBR will probably defend the RUB against the new floor for some time, wasting reserves, but eventually it will have to float the RUB.

Still seem unenthusiastically range bound with no great commitment one way or another.

Against GBP & CHF the EUR is very weak

I've just shorted at 1.2867.
Any thoughts?

Good Trading.

put tp 2850 and 2845 ,considering support around 2840 ,might take more pos if it breaks;any comments?

mike

on what basis do you hold this view 3200 currently 2870

I Short at 1.2865. my view is the EUR is going to test 1.2800 area before it decide to good further south or U turn...

happy trading

done,next tp 2800 and 2750 will see

closed my short @1.2840. i'm going to take a break

Just taken 1 lot out at 1.2853, & another at 1.2837, I will leave the last lot to run (or not!!!)

Good trading.

I see 12825 (1/20 low), 12800 (round #), and 12766 ( 1/22 low).

Be nice if we got through all three today.

Just a wish.