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  • #60,041
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:25am Jan 29, 2009 9:25am
Quoting got pips?
the euro droppin hard

maybe we could see the pair hit 1.2995 today.
1.2960 entry??
  • #60,042
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:27am Jan 29, 2009 9:27am
that 4 H 50 fib point is making fun of me...we have the top of the channel here too.... damn what the hell
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #60,043
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:35am Jan 29, 2009 9:35am
I am not much of a H&S guy, but 4H might be putting in the right shoulder on an inverse H&S.

It all depends if you think Dollar is up or down this year.

I break below 1.29 bearish for 2009, perhaps.
  • #60,044
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:36am Jan 29, 2009 9:36am
Gold just made a solid move north.

[EDIT] So far stopped short of 61.8 fib from 2008 high. Most likely going to retest, and probably push through.
  • #60,045
  • Edited 9:53am Jan 29, 2009 9:47am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I am not much of a H&S guy, but 4H might be putting in the right shoulder on an inverse H&S.

It all depends if you think Dollar is up or down this year.

I break below 1.29 bearish for 2009, perhaps.
you cant call a H&S if the trend is down
if the trend was up, then we would have to watch the neckline levels too carefully

if that was to happen, would be a very strong sign of going up sharply from there, since the head is kindda double-headed a powerful reverse signal too
but now we are still in correction of the first move up, therefore trend is down still
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  • #60,046
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:54am Jan 29, 2009 9:54am
Does anyone out there have a good resource for fundamental analysis of how all of this chaotic economic news balances out in the EUR/USD?

I can only find some mildly useful information on one or the other but not a balance.

Thanks
  • #60,047
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:03am Jan 29, 2009 10:03am
Quoting GrnEydGuy
Does anyone out there have a good resource for fundamental analysis of how all of this chaotic economic news balances out in the EUR/USD?

I can only find some mildly useful information on one or the other but not a balance.

Thanks

dailyfx have some good fundamentals...so does fxstreet. but it is hard for anyone to know what the news for the next day on an economy will be exactly, we could only wiait and be amazed like today with the US economic news...people were not expecting this bad news but here it is we got smack on the face by them....

DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #60,048
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:20am Jan 29, 2009 10:20am
Quoting arthurb
you cant call a H&S if the trend is down
if the trend was up, then we would have to watch the neckline levels too carefully

if that was to happen, would be a very strong sign of going up sharply from there, since the head is kindda double-headed a powerful reverse signal too
but now we are still in correction of the first move up, therefore trend is down still
I hear ya, so enter at neckline on move north?
  • #60,049
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:22am Jan 29, 2009 10:22am
Quoting arthurb
...technically speaking this scenario is valid but fundamentally the up move is very much debilitated unless we see a COT shifting or hawkish comments regarding the euro, now it is not december and volume is growing , therefore sudden sharp movements should be shorted without mercy. therefore the path of least resistance for the moment is downtrend unless clear signs are on the table

Absolutely spot on...fundamentally there is not much of a case supporting such a strong bullish run at this point of time, even Euro COT is currently neutral. Therefore is has been my policy to always take half profit especially when going against the larger down trend as soon as my reward>risk taken. If it breaks below 3026, it will be a case of wait and watch before initiating any further long positions. The fact that we broke out of a falling wedge and more importantly the volume of the first rally is encouraging, I remain cautiously optimistic that we will see another rally before significant breakdown in Eur/Usd.
  • #60,050
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:24am Jan 29, 2009 10:24am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I hear ya, so enter at neckline on move north?
U r the man my friend...

I've notice your trades its almost the same of mine
  • #60,051
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:25am Jan 29, 2009 10:25am
Quoting shajib
Absolutely spot on...fundamentally there is not much of a case supporting such a strong bullish run at this point of time, even Euro COT is currently neutral. Therefore is has been my policy to always take half profit especially when going against the larger down trend as soon as my reward>risk taken. If it breaks below 3026, it will be a case of wait and watch before initiating any further long positions. The fact that we broke out of a falling wedge and more importantly the volume of the first rally is encouraging, I remain cautiously optimistic...
Very nice, tempered analysis.
  • #60,052
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:28am Jan 29, 2009 10:28am
based on my view:

the pair have bounced from S1 session pivot point. right now is strugleling to climb above 1.3100 but is stalling on the 15 min chart. just in case if it break above 1.3100 ...1.3115 looks like the next congestion area on the 15 min chart.

right now im still supporting a drop below S1. accelerating toward low 1.30s.
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #60,053
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:33am Jan 29, 2009 10:33am
Do not get fooled!!!

Forget H&S!!!

Next Number 1.2888!!!
  • #60,054
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:35am Jan 29, 2009 10:35am
Quoting psiholog
the lower wall of the wedge has been extended. connect to that lowest spike and you will see it has transformed into a downwards channel. i think were most likely going to slowly range downwards until us session as that is when we will probably see the interpration of the stimulus plan (the correlation to the us stock market). Also, as any downwards channel goes, a break to the upside will eventually occur. The thing is, i dont see too much bull power tonight. Conclusion, im going to sleep until us session as for the moment it doesnt seem as any...
just woke up to see how correct that analysis was...trippy. in any case same rules as before apply....a break of 1.3060 followed by the retest to make sure it has become resistance is what im looking for when it comes to a serious position at this time...we are just retesting the upper wall of the previous channel which coincides with 1.3060 which suggests more ranging in this area with 1.3060 acting as strong support...to be seen.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #60,055
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:41am Jan 29, 2009 10:41am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I hear ya, so enter at neckline on move north?
if neckline is broken, i repeat if , you enter the direction of the move with a tight SL , being this a normal HS or inverted HS, but in this case i dont see any HS since we are going down
  • #60,056
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:46am Jan 29, 2009 10:46am
anyone have buylimits between 1.3000&1.3015???

weekly pivot point could be send the pair on a small reversal.

or could it slide right through
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #60,057
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:50am Jan 29, 2009 10:50am
Lets roll !!
  • #60,058
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:52am Jan 29, 2009 10:52am
Quoting got pips?
anyone have buylimits between 1.3000&1.3015???

weekly pivot point could be send the pair on a small reversal.

or could it slide right through
oh man i think is going right through
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #60,059
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:54am Jan 29, 2009 10:54am
I went short at 1.3060 up 44pips any one else short here?
  • #60,060
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:54am Jan 29, 2009 10:54am
my T/P 1.2790, PLEASE DONT STOP TILL THERE!!
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