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  • #59,901
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:25am Jan 29, 2009 12:25am
Quoting psiholog
the current PA suggest we can go either way. Since the break down after fed rate decision/talk we have consolidated in a descending triangle. Technically this should continue lower with first area of strong support around the 1.2990-1.3030 area (no exact value as it's a congestion area and 1.3000 represents strong psychological support). If we break loose of the 1.3000 area further descent can be expected all the way to the 1.2850 level. However, if the current triangle breaks to the upside a potential retest of the previous upwards channel could...
It's good to see you back mate.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #59,902
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:03am Jan 29, 2009 1:03am
man the sails..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,903
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:13am Jan 29, 2009 1:13am
EUROPEAN FX OPEN] back to EU recession watch here with data to come out of both the EU and UK. Eur/Usd opens lower after Germany's Steinbrueck suggested he is against the creation of a 'bad bank' for toxic assets.

The [DLR/CHF] holds above 1.15, and briefly clears the NY high of 1.1565 earlier. Weak Jan KOF leading indicator yesterday that came in at record low has been cited as driving the Chf lower, but reality seems overall Dlr steadiness/strength (global financial/economic crisis out of the US is killing global multipolarization and Dlr reserve diversification) is the main driver, and the Dlr/Chf is holding well above the 1.13 base (former ceiling). The Ichimoku cloud top (1.1354) also lends support to the market.


[JAPAN AHEAD] On Friday, there will be a bevy of Japanese releases on hand, which in summary look set to inflame deflationary fears. Growth in core Nationwide consumer prices are f/c to ease more drastically to a mere 0.3% on the Dec yr vs 1.00% prior, due to ongoing falls in energy & food prices as well as slowing demand momentum as the recession sets in. Dec's jobless rate is expected to bounce firmly above 4% to 4.2% (last 3.9%) as layoffs increase amid the worsening biz outlook, and expected to deepen the fall in household spending to -3.8% y/y from -0.5% y/y prior. Industrial output will prove the main market mover, and if forecasts are correct; risks to dive by 9% over Dec (last -8.5%), resulting in a record 20% slide over the year as global demand dries up. Due later on in the day, housing starts & construction orders should also come in negative, pointing to a sluggish housing market.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,904
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:14am Jan 29, 2009 1:14am
Some rare not quite as weak as expected [UK HOUSING] data, but [NATIONWIDE'S JAN HPI] still fell a considerable 1.3% m/m vs -1.7% f/c, with the y/y rate slowing further to -16.6% from -15.9% in Dec when the m/m index dropped 2.5%. Moreover, the lender is now reporting that the avg price of a property has declined to Gbp150,501, which is an 18% decline from the peak back in Q4 2007. Nationwide's economist Gahbauer noted that despite lower house prices and BoE rates the deepening recession and job security fears are keeping potential home buyers away and although the m/m rate of deceleration slowed this month it is too premature to predict any improvement in conditions in the near term.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,905
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:15am Jan 29, 2009 1:15am
triangle broken to the downside...test at 1.3060 appears to show that it is indeed a strong support. My bias is still short but for the moment i am testing a small position long on a possible return to the upper level of the current range at 1.3145...better to be wrong and do something then to be right and do nothing haha.. If we do indeed continue south...ill wait for the retest of this level when it proves to be resistance to enter with my main position short. Careful pipping all


hello jay
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #59,906
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:20am Jan 29, 2009 1:20am
SPLAT! so far.. testttttt60
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,907
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:21am Jan 29, 2009 1:21am
Quoting gatorinla
man the sails..

yes fast & furious
  • #59,908
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:24am Jan 29, 2009 1:24am
[FOCUS COMMENT] - Global equity markets closed on a positive note, the house of Reps passed $825bln of further economic stimulus in the US and the RBNZ throws another 150bps rate cut at the economy. See page .
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,909
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:33am Jan 29, 2009 1:33am
After three days of BULL conquerer I didnt get any food & this is what happen....

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  • #59,910
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:42am Jan 29, 2009 1:42am
Quoting psiholog
triangle broken to the downside...test at 1.3060 appears to show that it is indeed a strong support. My bias is still short but for the moment i am testing a small position long on a possible return to the upper level of the current range at 1.3145...better to be wrong and do something then to be right and do nothing haha.. If we do indeed continue south...ill wait for the retest of this level when it proves to be resistance to enter with my main position short. Careful pipping all


hello jay
fun time is over...closed that trade at 20pips +...current market conditions are too volatile in a very tight range...i doubt even the market makers know which way to push things now...better to wait for a break of range...careful pippin all.


btw moewenger dont feel bad..this whole week has been a choppy mess ...not much to be done anyways. the few strong movements that occured happened too quick to really profit from (unless your a gambler as they were mostly news related)
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #59,911
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:46am Jan 29, 2009 1:46am
it should bust lower..the eg on the one hour chart show the e weakening compared to g... but in smaller charts eg getting strength coslidating..compared to usd both g and e show weakening with g weaker.. my thought is g will pull e lower....with trend... my sftware also is biased this way..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,912
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:48am Jan 29, 2009 1:48am
An Asian central bank reportedly selling [EUR/USD] in the opening gambits of the EU session, the same account capping trade yesterday above 1.3300. However, the account in question deemed by the majority as a jobber and not solely responsible for the weak tone of the headline pair today.


No major [GBP] negative reaction so far to yet another UK HPI shocker. This one came in the form of Jan's Nationwide, drawing -1.3% m/m and -16.6% y/y figures. It has been a sharp decline in Gbp having peaked at 1.4377 just ahead of European close Weds. We have been attempting to warn against overly positive sentiment on Gbp over most recent sessions and we further note today that stops are in closest proximity to the downside. These reportedly come through the 1.4040/45 fibo (61.8% of 1.3500/1.4377 move), 1.4020 (200-hour mov ave) and 1.4000. Still on the housing front, the UK land registry's HPI version to come, slated at -12.2% y/y in Nov. Cable last at 1.4085/90. We would be better net sellers 1.4170/00.


Broad USD strength has ramped up [USD/RUB] that has spiked up to touch a record low against the greenback at 34.65. Against the euro, the beleaguered currency has also tested fresh consecutive lows again, with Eur/Rub hitting highs of 45.27 and smacking the Rouble to another historic low vs its currency basket to 39.42. It is still some distance from the floor of the 26-41 basket range, however momentum seems to be building up to test the resolve of the Russian authorities amid worries surrounding the economic outlook and banking sector. In the corporate sector the situation is serious - Russian firms have made bids worth about $90b in help from state corporation [VEB] that has been charge by the govt to distributed $50b of state money to help firms refinance their debt. So far, about $11b has been distributed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,913
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:52am Jan 29, 2009 1:52am
i did well up over 725 pips since yesterday.. not sure cause i closed portions and re-enterd. but never got completly out. kiwi gbp eur chf... i did close aud and cad... sorry i did that.. im still sticking to my usd strength till proven wrong..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,914
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:56am Jan 29, 2009 1:56am
i think we will brake this support and go down
  • #59,915
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:58am Jan 29, 2009 1:58am
Quoting psiholog
fun time is over...closed that trade at 20pips +...current market conditions are too volatile in a very tight range...i doubt even the market makers know which way to push things now...better to wait for a break of range...careful pippin all.


btw moewenger dont feel bad..this whole week has been a choppy mess ...not much to be done anyways. the few strong movements that occured happened too quick to really profit from (unless your a gambler as they were mostly news related)
I got wiped out at +53 pips Gu chased my TS...

My bear is done for today. I wont enter again(Price is low and risky for me). But I dont think the real BEAR is done. Will still see lower though.

p.s:- next time I'm only going to take 100pips each time I enter at my signal. My bad...
  • #59,916
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:58am Jan 29, 2009 1:58am
Either were back inside the falling wedge... or we just made an parrallel channel... would look for break long if the case at some point.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #59,917
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:58am Jan 29, 2009 1:58am
Quoting janka3002
how do you think, eur will go down or down?
not sure of anything..but sticking to my plan.. until proven wrong..ive heard its going to go up and others say down.. over the last few weeks they were all right.. mostly...but had i stuck to my own thoughts i would be in much better shape...and if im wrong i will cut my losses.. no matter what happens from here on out i got 200 pips locked in..and not long ago 200 pips was a good weak..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,918
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:59am Jan 29, 2009 1:59am
Quoting janka3002
i think we will brake this support and go down

Support is at 3048. Resistance is RIGHT NOW.

Morning Gator.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #59,919
  • Jan 29, 2009 2:05am Jan 29, 2009 2:05am
Quoting psiholog
fun time is over...closed that trade at 20pips +...current market conditions are too volatile in a very tight range...i doubt even the market makers know which way to push things now...better to wait for a break of range...careful pippin all.


btw moewenger dont feel bad..this whole week has been a choppy mess ...not much to be done anyways. the few strong movements that occured happened too quick to really profit from (unless your a gambler as they were mostly news related)
the secret is that we enter at the RIGHT TIME & to TRUST that position. I would say 8 out of 10 of my post wont hit my SL when I entered PERFECTLY...

  • #59,920
  • Jan 29, 2009 2:09am Jan 29, 2009 2:09am
another reason is the uc seam to want to resume bullish trend.. this should increase the chances of the eur weakening comparibly... also the gbp weakening may help pull it... the only difference the way rates were cut or not cut.. i think this is why everything is so confusing..lately... just my thought and 2 cents.. im a money whore and if you got a better way im your best friend..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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