EURUSD

Market is in its consolidation period and ranging between 1.3283 & 1.3227. Market looks to be waiting on the Feds Interest rate decision this afternoon. Best play at the moment, is NO PLAY. Wait it out, enjoy breakfast/dinner, until the market breaks out of this tight range.

[NRW] is the 4th of the 6 German states to report [PRELIM JAN CPI] data, and also the biggest in weighting of those that do. Hence, following softer than expected figures from Hesse and Brandenburg earlier a similarly benign -0.6% m/m reading should be instrumental even though this left the y/y rate unch from Dec at 1%. A breakdown of the latest report shows the same kind of basket price trends, with increases in oil/energy components far outweighed by much cheaper entertainment, leisure and especially package holidays. After this release, we look for a slightly lower national infl development, at -0.4% m/m and 1% y/y vs +0.3%/1.1% in Dec.



The [SWISS KOF] lead indicator fell to a record low of -0.87 in Jan, from a revised -0.45 in Dec (prev -0.39). This was worse than consensus ests of -0.50, but in line with earlier mkt rumours (see 09:51GMT update). The Swiss economy narrowly avoided a negative GDP read in Q3, but the outlook for Q4 is clearly less favourable - the KOF and other indicators such as the PMI pointing to a negative outcome. The SNB says a decline in GDP is 'inevitable' in the short-term, with a full-year contraction of 0.5-1% f/c for 2009. Earlier today, SNB's Roth argued the Swiss economy is still in relatively good shape, although he sees no evidence for a 2010 recovery so far. The Swiss CB has cut rates by 225bp since Oct, with most analysts looking for another small ease in March.

I sold at 1,42 and still holding it
and I sold 1,29 and still holding

The [SWISS KOF] lead indicator fell to a record low of -0.87 in Jan, from a revised -0.45 in Dec (prev -0.39). This was worse than consensus ests of -0.50, but in line with earlier mkt rumours (see 09:51GMT update). The Swiss economy narrowly avoided a negative GDP read in Q3, but the outlook for Q4 is clearly less favourable - the KOF and other indicators such as the PMI pointing to a negative outcome. The SNB says a decline in GDP is 'inevitable' in the short-term, with a full-year contraction of 0.5-1% f/c for 2009. Earlier today, SNB's Roth argued the Swiss economy is still in relatively good shape, although he sees no evidence for a 2010 recovery so far. The Swiss CB has cut rates by 225bp since Oct, with most analysts looking for another small ease in March.

Yes, I went short at 1.3158, have already pulled half the trade out. But have just got stopped out. Seems like good scalping conditions at present, but difficult to get long term trade to run.

Good Trading.

Nothing about this on calendar, don't know why

French Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Increased in January
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...08c&refer=home

I agree. It's tough to recognize how to play these trades, but fortunately it's not too cataclysmic. I think the guy who wrote to just stay out had it best

dont mean nothing.. its up to interpitation..its just news...but if usd cant cut rates and euro can....u.s. can do other things too but so can eur-zone..but its harder for eur-zone to do anything other then talk and cut or raise rates.. i dont think raising rates any time soon is in the cards.. so eur cutting rates possibly to me is more likely....if so we are near 1.33 now.. seems like a good place to short for a trader who trades in larger time frames then just hours...

DAVOS, Switzerland (Jan. 28) -- The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression cast gloom over the opening of the World Economic Forum on Wednesday with experts warning against creeping protectionism and expectations that government stimulus packages alone will return the world's biggest economies to growth.

The usually glitzy gathering in this snowcapped Swiss Alpine hamlet was decidedly muted. Some of the biggest players contributing to the economic slide stayed away, as did top economic policy makers in U.S. President Barack Obama's new administration.
Economist Stephen Roach gave a grim forecast for the global economic outlook, saying growth worldwide for the next three years was only likely to be about 2.5 percent — what the Morgan Stanley Asia chairman and longtime Davos attendee termed a "near recession." That compares with 5 percent growth over the last four and a half years.
But even that was deemed optimistic by some other participants.
Experts agreed that stimulus packages being approved by developed nations weren't going to be enough to pull the world out of the current crisis, calling instead for a coordinated fiscal response.

Based on our experience, a capital injection is not enough," said Heizo Takenaka, the director of Global Security Research Institute at Japan's Keio University. Takenaka said what is needed is an accurate assessment of troubled assets in order to know exactly how much capital to inject.
"The current situation is something more than a financial and economic crisis. We face a confidence crisis. Once the confidence of crisis occurs we need a strong government and central banks."
The crisis already is drying up investment in developing nations, said South Africa's Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. He warned that "hurried interventions" may "lead to naught."
"We see a lemming like approach trying to get to the precipice first without having any idea what that money will do," Manuel said. "I think we will have wealthy states indebted without much to show for it."
At the same time, he said the crisis already is drying up money for developing nations, citing 48 mining projects in the Republic of Congo that are "in various stages of abandonment."
Among the 2,500 participants in Davos are over 40 heads of state who will discuss this year's theme of "shaping the post-crisis world" in fields such as energy, climate change and free trade. They include Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was to give the keynote address Wednesday evening even as Russia's bankers and energy tycoons struggle with debt and plunging oil prices. After, he will take part in a high-level debate that includes Nestle AG Chairman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, U.S. computer maker Michael Dell and Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn .
But, underscoring the sober mood this year, some of the glitz has been scaled back and there is no entertainment celebrity on a level with previous attendees Angelina Jolie, Sharon Stone and Bono.

Price is still attacking the lower low of Jan 6th (Daily Chart 1.3311). Hard to work out any direction as yet. All that can be done is to scalp it up and down, or be patient and WAIT.

Good Trading

CABLE] continues to hold relatively well bid around 1.4315/20 and just off the earlier 1.4330 six-day best. There is little reaction to the comments of UK PM Brown who says that the UK targets inflation, not Gbp's value. Brown admits that targeting the FX rate has not worked for the UK in the past. Elsewhere, Brown says the UK will do everything it can for the car industry, but warned the UK is facing a 'deep recession'. The DJI remains positive (+149) and this is the present barometer for risk appetite currencies such as Gbp and further gains could ensue pre FOMC

It's almost a waste of time unless you have a lucky streak. Up a few pips, down a few pips, up, down, up , down...net net if you walk away with decent number of pips, I guess it's worth it, but I feel like I am over trading at this point.

10 to 20 pips max, and then get out!!

Good Trading.

if that last one holds double top 4 hrs apart

Another day, another gloomy report, this time from the [IIF], the major banks organisation, which warns of an almost unprecedented collapse in world economic growth and capital flows. It predicts that flows would drop from $928.6bn in 2007 and $465.8bn in 2008 to just $165.3bn this year. Worryingly, the group also becomes the first to f/c a full global contraction in 2009 of over 1% with rich economies contracting by 2.1%.

Pretty much. I just have to avoid those loser trades best I can

It is not a school of thought, it is how the markets work. They don't wait for the t's to be crossed and the i's to be dotted.

Watch how it trades within the 1.3285 & 1.3263 area (5min chart), if I get a decent signal below 1.3263 I will probaly short again. If it is above 1.3285 I will wait.

Good Trading.

Both [EU STOCKS AND BONDS] pushing higher mid-lunchtime with the bourses hitting new intra-day peaks and the 10yr contracts just off their highs. Dax hits a new high of 4485, +161 points with the financial, tech and industrial sectors all gaining around 6% on the day. FTSE up 96 at 4290, with the financial sector the standout, showing gains of 9%+. DJII futures up 150 points on financials and the heavy talk of a 'bad bank'.