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  • #59,581
  • Jan 27, 2009 9:50pm Jan 27, 2009 9:50pm
Until it breaks up beyond .3260 I'm a little nervous to go long, scalped a few shorts from this point though.

Cheers
  • #59,582
  • Jan 27, 2009 9:56pm Jan 27, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting Subdude
According to WSJ, the vote is tomorrow - but what time? Can't find anything. This one is a seriously high impact release; FF should really add it to the calendar once the time is known.
The [US] Senate Finance Committee has approved an approximate $522bln package of tax breaks and spending incentives aimed at averting the downward spiral of the US economy. The measures will be combined with the earlier $356.6 bln spending package passed by the Senate Appropriations Committee; and together paves the way for the total package, costing ard $887 bln, to be considered by the full Senate in coming days. The near $900bln stimulus bill continues to provide a glimmer of hope to market players, with both Dow and S&P futures...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,583
  • Jan 27, 2009 9:57pm Jan 27, 2009 9:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
my 30 min chart trend shows it ridding the lower part of the trend..for almost 7 hours.. but yeah it shows acending.. but has not hit upper trend line in channel in last 7 hours
Hope the bright colors don't hurt your eyes

This channel has been working pretty nicely the last days, the green line shows an important level to break up and test 1.33 again. Lower we have more support zones, 1.32 psych still having some bulls loading in whenever it reaches there, and ~20 pips below around 1.3180-70.

I believe only London may help to decide direction, but so far i'm neutral to bullish, but since I trade mostly very short term(few minutes), I'll just keep going with the flow hoping to be in the right direction(or out ) when the break occurs.

EUR/USD 30m as of 01/28 3:30 GMT:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm5-6.gif Size: 28 KB
Traders are smartasses
  • #59,584
  • Jan 27, 2009 9:58pm Jan 27, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting Subdude
According to WSJ, the vote is tomorrow - but what time? Can't find anything. This one is a seriously high impact release; FF should really add it to the calendar once the time is known.
Buy the rumor, sell the news or vice versa depending on which way someone believes the dollar will move.

This has been talked about and debated for weeks. Means very little.
  • #59,585
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:00pm Jan 27, 2009 10:00pm
[FOCUS COMMENT] RBNZ is expected to slash New Zealand rates at 20.00GMT; with the Kiwi's direction to depend on the depth of the cut See page.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,586
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:02pm Jan 27, 2009 10:02pm
my simple perspective on todays pa.
since the low at 1.2765 an uptrend has begun. this uptrend moved from the lower wall rapidly to the upper wall and stuck to it until meeting strong resistance at 1.3265. Since then it has consolidated at the high towards the lower wall with strong support at 1.3145. All this without breaking the current upwards channel

conclusion...a break of those values...1.3265 to the upside to be long...a break below 1.3145 to be short(careful with spikes)...we are ranging in what is scalper heaven to some..the simple concept of buy at the low and sell at the high. the fomc minutes are tommorow as well, considering our current rate....it will be crucial what the feds have got to say. this is proven by the current market maker indecision to make their move for the past 24 hours. good pippin all

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 34 KB


Sidenote: on closer inspection...the chart i posted looks alot like a cup and handle on the hourly chart...interesting...something worth paying attention to for sure
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #59,587
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:03pm Jan 27, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting SunTrader
Buy the rumor, sell the news or vice versa depnding on what someone believes will move the dollar either way.

This has been talked about and debated for weeks. Means very little.
That's one school of thought. I see something entirely different - Dow futures are up 124 points at the moment, and dollar is down against everything again today ONLY because of the anticipation of some propping up by the Fed and Congress tomorrow. There's really no reason why the Euro should fetch more than $1.25 right now.
  • #59,588
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:11pm Jan 27, 2009 10:11pm
Quoting Subdude
That's one school of thought. I see something entirely different - Dow futures are up 124 points at the moment, and dollar is down against everything again today ONLY because of the anticipation of some propping up by the Fed and Congress tomorrow. There's really no reason why the Euro should fetch more than $1.25 right now.
Unless we rated the currencies against IQ.
Traders are smartasses
  • #59,589
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:13pm Jan 27, 2009 10:13pm
Here's my angle at this. Trade what you see though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 26 KB
  • #59,590
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:19pm Jan 27, 2009 10:19pm
last two hours looks like a very small retrace that is coiling sideways/down and will pop up not sure how much but then its all to the down side. Just my opinion dont trade unless you agree
  • #59,591
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:20pm Jan 27, 2009 10:20pm
IMO
  • #59,592
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:22pm Jan 27, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting junglelion
Anyways, I picked up a total of +790 on EU today, using a simple

SMA 5,
SMA 8

setup.
what timeframe u used?
  • #59,593
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:23pm Jan 27, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting psiholog
my simple perspective on todays pa.
since the low at 1.2765 an uptrend has begun. this uptrend moved from the lower wall rapidly to the upper wall and stuck to it until meeting strong resistance at 1.3265. Since then it has consolidated at the high towards the lower wall with strong support at 1.3145. All this without breaking the current upwards channel

conclusion...a break of those values...1.3265 to the upside to be long...a break below 1.3145 to be short(careful with spikes)...we are ranging in what is scalper heaven to some..the simple concept...
And that channel is part of a larger one. A breakout down could mean a resumption of the downtrend in the even larger channel.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: triple channel2.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr channel.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #59,594
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:24pm Jan 27, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting klinckphilip
last two hours looks like a very small retrace that is coiling sideways/down and will pop up not sure how much but then its all to the down side. Just my opinion dont trade unless you agree
3260 first then some coiling then up to 3290 then 3330 then 3350

I am scalping these and it may take 4 hours or so to do all of this maybe just the first two topping out at 3290
  • #59,595
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:27pm Jan 27, 2009 10:27pm
I posted yesterday the monthly channel that show the uptrend:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=59186

I understand your point, and I'm not "defending" my position, i do trade what I see

We have to take in consideration all the possibilities, and this pair is in a very decisive area, we can't marry a side if we want to profit from it.

So if this one breaks up and thus breaking that downtrend channel, ok with me, I just have to keep my plan.

If it breaks down below ~1.3150, ok with me too, my plan covers that too, after all whatever the trend, our "job" is to profit from it

My point is that we are never 100% sure, so we must always wait for confirmation to lessen our risk. And I really don't care what should be the real value of any currency, and really no one can really say what'd be the real value of ANY currency in world right now... eck i don't believe there is enough goods in the world that are worth that printed paper
Traders are smartasses
  • #59,596
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:27pm Jan 27, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting TradeWell
And that channel is part of a larger one. A breakout down could mean a resumption of the downtrend in the even larger channel.
very nice...i fully agree...those last 4 candlesticks in the first chart look an awful lot like a bull flag...i expect continuation up and a break out of the larger downtrend....the only way i will trade this though is if 1.3265 gets broken...goes up a bit..comes back to test its become support then go in long myself...otherwise...too dangerous for now
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #59,597
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:34pm Jan 27, 2009 10:34pm
but dont forget the engine....

[OIL] March crude nudged back up over the $42 handle after it plunged 9% on Tues, to settle $4.15 lower in NYMEX at $41.58/brl. However flows have been thin in Asian after hours trade, with any upticks being cited as a mere illiquid dead cat bounce. The overall bias continues to be lower amidst waning demand, with todays weekly inventory data being eyed closely for next near term leads. Here, US crude stocks are expected to have risen for the fifth straight week with forecasts on a crude build of over 2 mln bbls. Wavering around $42/brl for now, key support at Jan 26th's low of $41.40 continues to be eyed more closely; whilst upside resistance touted at $43.87.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,598
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:40pm Jan 27, 2009 10:40pm
that's a far out look... but still important! might just be bouncing down soon
  • #59,599
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:41pm Jan 27, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
but dont forget the engine....

[OIL] March crude nudged back up over the $42 handle after it plunged 9% on Tues, to settle $4.15 lower in NYMEX at $41.58/brl. However flows have been thin in Asian after hours trade, with any upticks being cited as a mere illiquid dead cat bounce. The overall bias continues to be lower amidst waning demand, with todays weekly inventory data being eyed closely for next near term leads. Here, US crude stocks are expected to have risen for the fifth straight week with forecasts on a crude build of over 2 mln bbls....
Would be more significant if we were trading oil futures. Euro seems on it own lately.
  • #59,600
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:41pm Jan 27, 2009 10:41pm
Hi bro..whats ur take...I think london time will decide the movement..
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