Aussie Pairs

the trend is up and u guys want to short?

I pitty your losses if they occur. Best to wait on a retracement then a morning star for u top go long again. Hey i mean i broke the out of double tops right?

just my input. If u wanna short and it worked out. then that is great but if it didn't remember the odds were against u

Check the dates out.

oooooooooooooopsssssssssss

Actually, I can think of several very good reasons for shorting Aussie now.

One good reason is that the last time that the pair got much above .8000 was in 1996 and since then has been restricted to the area below that.

Second, there is a very large pin bar on the 4h chart and there is very likely to be one on the daily once this pin closes, which is a while off, I realize.

Third, the slow stochastics at all the higher time frames (1H, 4H, daily) are turning down.

For the past 8 years, whenever this pair has gone beyond .8000 it has fallen many hundred of pips.

None of these are guarantees but they present good justification for going short. Just in the past few hours the pair has fallen 60 pips.

Don't worry Don Perry. I was looking for my glasses a while ago and realized I already had them on. Hope someone is right about going short. That's where I am headed.

Cheers

Aussie is supported by perception of a possible rate hike and China's unsatiable need for raw materials from australia.

I want to short AND long this pair!
I really want to short it, but right now it looks like I may get a small long out of it. But nothing that I'm going to hold for days.

I've been long on this since the start of the week. Both technically and fundamentally I believe it's a good thing. That being said, I'm going to minise my risk on this one

There has been two nice, low risk trades over the last two days reversing from the ten year high back to the trend line. The ten year high and rising trendline should meet tomorrow so will be interesting to see which one breaks. I won't be taking any reversal trade tomorrow but will be setting a breakout trade to the upside.

Did anyone catch that ride?

I'm still long on this trade. I've just re set my stop loss to 0.8066.

yea, i got in around 7880 and another at 7950.

but now it's way above weekly highs...can it reach 8200? I can't find anymore place to add to these longs (resistance) until it broke 8200

I'm pretty sure it's actually broken 11 year highs now and getting close to or broken 20 year high.
I've got limit orders on two of my three mini contracts at 0.8127, lets see how they go.

My entry was voided at the FOMC announcment, it spiked through it. I've been watching this so much I feel inept of not doing any trades.
After the FOMC, I'd guess I could enter here at .8085 and sell at 81 even just for the thrill. But that's all fundamental speculation than anything else, and probably won't even take the trade.

I have offer sitting at 0.8160

what happen at this day?

Apr 01, 2007 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) -- The Australian dollar rose to highs of over $US0.80 in the week to 30 March 2007. The currency was buoyed by factors such as a solid outlook for commodity prices, expectations of interest rate rises and investor interest in risky trading. Toward the end of the March 2007 quarter, a 50 per cent likelihood of an interest rate rise at the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting was priced into the interest rate futures market. Hugely leveraged carry trades in recent years have also been to the benefit of the high-yielding Australian dollar.

How high can the AUS go?

Although I picked up some nice profit on the Aussie and Interest rate decision I think the current price action after the spike is a strong lead to everybody that selling the Aussie dollar will result in low probability trade for the moment.

Dips in the Asian session seem to be re-bounded by strong Carry trade demand. Carry trades, little profit taking, more Carry trades, little profit taking.

My humble opinion is that the dollar will range between 8250 and 8000 until the CPI figures at the end of April.

If the CPI figures are strong will it reach 8500?

Anyone else have an opinion on this?

I've got short orders for the aud at 8196, every indicator I have is saying overbought. It may get past 82 late tonight but I'm thinking it'll have a nice retracement the next time it hits.

I suspect there might be a bit of profit taking when the Asian session opens.
I can't see it pushing to 17 year highs without some strong CPI data pushing the probability of interest rate hike to a high probability. I going on the assumption that the Aussie will range until some strong data comes out.

I've just entered a short position for a short term trade.