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  • #57,261
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:05pm Jan 19, 2009 4:05pm
*shultz impression* i c nuttin i c nutting
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,262
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:10pm Jan 19, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting ak4x
I wouldn't have thought that he'd manage that w/o me seeing him, but he surely slipped past.
its ok we all slip.. with or without high oil.. btw i think oil 25 bucks is not out the question... as long as crazies stay in check.. one refinery shell oil here sold a ship of oil 20 bucks below what they paid for it.. all their tanks are full..it was cheaper to seel the oil then to rent ship for storage. debarge contract fee must have been extremily high.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,263
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:11pm Jan 19, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting dwildes
Well - I think many have the right idea that the sellers have to cash out sometime, and they are right about it. However - they don't seem to plan it around good S&R areas, which then it's just a gamble.

I don't see a good support area on here until we get to the 1.3050 area.
Going long before then and being profitable will be just luck.

Agree with you on the possible support at 1.3050.
  • #57,264
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:12pm Jan 19, 2009 4:12pm
Good day for all the shorting people. I am out with 100 points loss.
  • #57,265
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:14pm Jan 19, 2009 4:14pm
Pivots for today from 5pm EST

Central Pivot of 3067 is irrelevant as it's right on top on M2. Price breaking below M2 at session start will give me a strong bear bias for pre and early asia... but times are strange and I'd keep my finger on the Close button this evening until things sort out ((...if they sort out))

This is a great session to mind those Quarter Pivots, especially in early session
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FUBAR...
  • #57,266
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:18pm Jan 19, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
one refinery shell oil here sold a ship of oil 20 bucks below what they paid for it.. all their tanks are full..it was cheaper to seel the oil then to rent ship for storage. debarge contract fee must have been extremily high.
That's something I'd love to have a reputable source for current industry data on, like weekly or monthly reports?

I've not been able to find one, mostly cuz i don't really know what to look for terminology wise. Any thoughts?
FUBAR...
  • #57,267
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:24pm Jan 19, 2009 4:24pm
Good morning to any still up for the Australian/Asian sessions. Does anyone have any thoughts how Obama's inauguration will affect the USD and AUD?

I read how people will probably be joyful which will reduce their risk aversion. Is this other people's take on it too?
Making Pips is easy, loosing them is even easier!
  • #57,268
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:31pm Jan 19, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting Tjpld
2x. Good post from Jay.

Why do so many try to predict bottoms?
"Ok price has fallen 234 Pips todays. NOW it will turn around.
Let's place a 25 Pips stop loss". Disaster waiting to happen...

I tried it 3 times today (picking the bottom) and all three times got wiped out in a matter of minutes. Price has adhered to very few support levels. Completely crazy. I expect tomorrow wont be much different either.
  • #57,269
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:32pm Jan 19, 2009 4:32pm
hmmm i get my fo straight from the horses mouth... got 3 bro at 3 different refineries.. also most dont know but most smaller older refineries here will close.. their going to mega refineries.. my personal thought is... why dont the saudis, mexico, russia ect. refine all their own oils? then they could really put the screws to us.. they could eliminate lots of cost labor.insurance envirmental ect.. then if they still sold crude they could sell a smaller commodity to more buyers.. increasing demand increases price.. it would not be long before U.S. refineries would shut down.. just like the autos.. making us 3rd world on bicycles.. buy some Swinn stock..

if you want more info google marathon/garyville la. plant or motiva/norco la. or valloro/norco la.. spelling may be off
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,270
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:37pm Jan 19, 2009 4:37pm
okay, as i thought it reached previous level and we have VERY STRONG resistance here

probably time to take profit and go to sleep
  • #57,271
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:42pm Jan 19, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting Dazzer
I tried it 3 times today (picking the bottom) and all three times got wiped out in a matter of minutes. Price has adhered to very few support levels. Completely crazy. I expect tomorrow wont be much different either.
dog chasing tail in the end is just as happy licking balls.. see what you did? dont do it again and move on... bottoms are nomans land.. until bigger chart comfirms reversal.. its just a pullback... continue trend... cash is a position.. sell peeks buying valley keeping in min s/r but only after your charts confirm reversal.. picking tops and bottoms without comfirmation is account suicide.. if you have to do it use smaller position.. then slap yourself ... cause it was stupid!!
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,272
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:43pm Jan 19, 2009 4:43pm
Closed a "scalpy" short from just above the figure at 3068. Didn't like the pre-session dive and then the way it was hanging a'rd the M2.

Smells like a Big Dog pre-session bear trap setup to clear the stops below the figure for a run up to get better short entries in anticipation of a larger downmove.

The 4hr has had zero retracement to speak of since the high a'rd 34xx and it doesn't sit right with me. A simple 50% retrace would take it back to 3220ish and the 4hr 34sma... ((I'd probably short the stuffin out of it if it does that)) Added: Wouldn't even have to be that much now that I think about it, 38% at 3180ish works too.

If I'm wrong, a reentry short is not a problem with no pips lost or eroded away in the meantime

Out ((of trades)) for a few hours now and watching, careful trades all.

This chart DOES NOT represent what I think or hope will happen, but something I'm pondering could happen. The session is too early to make any sense to me yet and in this environment, I plan to keep my short term pips instead of giving them back. I am in no long term trades atm.

Personally, I'd be happy to see it plummet and stay there. I'd happily give up a few dozen pips or more out of several hundred downside for that
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FUBAR...
  • #57,273
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:44pm Jan 19, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
dog chasing tail in the end is just as happy licking balls.. see what you did? dont do it again and move on... bottoms are nomans land.. until bigger chart comfirms reversal.. its just a pullback... continue trend... cash is a position.. sell peeks buying valley keeping in min s/r but only after your charts confirm reversal.. picking tops and bottoms without comfirmation is account suicide.. if you have to do it use smaller position.. then slap yourself ... cause it was stupid!!
You're damn right !
  • #57,274
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:52pm Jan 19, 2009 4:52pm
same here i just pulled out 8 pips.. gonna be conservative and wait for a pullback and re-enter im in no way saying i would long anything.. i aint that clever.. im just saying im thinking we may be in no mans land and looking for a better entry to short until charts tell me something different ..
Quoting ak4x
Closed a "scalpy" short from just above the figure at 3068. Didn't like the pre-session dive and then the way it was hanging a'rd the M2.

Smells like a Big Dog pre-session bear trap setup to clear the stops below the figure for a run up to get better short entries in anticipation of a downmove.

The 4hr has had zero retracement to speak of since the high a'rd 34xx and it doesn't sit right with me. A simple 50% retrace would take it back to 3220ish and the 4hr 34sma... ((I'd probably short the stuffin out of it if it does that)) Added: Wouldn't...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,275
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:53pm Jan 19, 2009 4:53pm
I am away from my Metatrader. Can someone tell me current price?

Thanks,
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #57,276
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:54pm Jan 19, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting SpecialEd
I am away from my Metatrader. Can someone tell me current price?

Thanks,
3062
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #57,277
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:55pm Jan 19, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting walb99
3062
Thanks walb99
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #57,278
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:57pm Jan 19, 2009 4:57pm
man the gbp been taken to the wood shed since last night.. i screwed up i rode it up but not down.. 450 pips..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,279
  • Jan 19, 2009 5:03pm Jan 19, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
dog chasing tail in the end is just as happy licking balls.. see what you did? dont do it again and move on... bottoms are nomans land.. until bigger chart comfirms reversal.. its just a pullback... continue trend... cash is a position.. sell peeks buying valley keeping in min s/r but only after your charts confirm reversal.. picking tops and bottoms without comfirmation is account suicide.. if you have to do it use smaller position.. then slap yourself ... cause it was stupid!!
Thanks for taking the time to write that. You are absolutely right. The positions were relatively small and I'm still +pips on a very good day. Still, could've been a brilliant day if I had stuck to the plan. Lost about a third of my gains on those.
  • #57,280
  • Jan 19, 2009 5:24pm Jan 19, 2009 5:24pm
Quoting Dazzer
Still, could've been a brilliant day if I had stuck to the plan. Lost about a third of my gains on those.


Dude, we've all had our "less than brilliant days", and I bet I've had more than you.

On the other hand, only lost a third of your gains? So let me see if I got this right... you still have 60-70%?
FUBAR...
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