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First-Strike & One-Night-Stand users, show yourself and your mods, if you dare!!!

  • #101
  • Jan 18, 2009 10:27am Jan 18, 2009 10:27am
Quoting deathbait
I'm sorry for being harsh, but you see why I have to put you down; defending a strategy that relies on erroneous results can actually cause some people to lose money.

See how easy it is?
Oh, double dear...
  • #102
  • Jan 18, 2009 10:29am Jan 18, 2009 10:29am
Quoting hanover
Just a quick aside, I wouldn't pay 10 cents for any position sizing algorithm. Why? Because ultimately, all MM algorithms are created equal. (For an explanation, see my post here, and/or download any of the Excel spreadsheets from posts #31, #32 and #43 in this thread).

If a trader such as Joel is able to coincide his larger bets with winning trades, more often than not, then it's his forecasting...

Interesting to note of course is the fact that the only pure MM strategy that will not fall into the trap of betting less when you're winning and betting more when you're losing is one that resembles a martingale betting system. And well all know why that's frowned upon.

For novices of risk management : betting the same % of your account every trade means that you bet less after every drawdown(by defination, you're winning now) and more during a drawdown(you're currently losing)
  • #103
  • Jan 18, 2009 10:34am Jan 18, 2009 10:34am
This thread has turned into a good one!
  • #104
  • Jan 18, 2009 11:02am Jan 18, 2009 11:02am
Quoting tdion
www.infiniteyield.com is Joel's site, and the title is "Dangerous Secrets that Guarantee AUTOMATIC Forex Profits" .... You will see the One Night Stand backtest....
Apologies to Tdion on this one point. You are right about the website. You were right and I was wrong and I'm big enough to say so.

But I would like to see the OP get his thread back.
  • #105
  • Jan 18, 2009 2:47pm Jan 18, 2009 2:47pm
With FSP, I use a trend filter. After going through all of my past data, I found that the trades that are in the direction of the weekly trend have a higher expectation. With my position sizing, I put my full size on in the direction of the trend and half size on the trade against the trend. It helps to improve my profitability.
"If you personalize losses, you can't trade." - Bruce Kovner
  • #106
  • Jan 18, 2009 4:07pm Jan 18, 2009 4:07pm
You are correct tdion, I was referring to you! I have nothing against you, it's just odd that in almost every thread in this forum you are there to post why things won't work. And sometimes claim you do it to save noobs from themselves.

Trading for money is a zero sum game. If your winning that means you have to have other people losing. People who are on a mission to save other people from themselves in a zero sum game that is entered at in free will, well that makes we wonder how profitable they really are at actually trading profitably. Since this is a website about learning to trade forex, than I think it's just important to point out to new people that not everyone with a 10v by there name might actually be trading in profit. Of course perhaps you get something else of value out of trading (or testing and pointing out flaws in strategies and people) and that's fine too.

No offense indented, you seem to have Thick skin so I doubt I offended you, but just in case, I apologize .

In regards to the system, I think it's kind of odd to enter a position, set a stop and then hope the trade does what you want. I will be using the FS and ONS systems as I do the dibs hourly bars and 30m Inside Bar, just as indications that an event has occurred that might offer a higher probability trade and requires my attention. I will then go to a lower time frame and look for low risk entries that allow me to get my stop to BE within a few minutes. If I enter and it goes against me, I get out and wait for the next low risk opportunity. I guess you could say that is my mod to the system.
  • #107
  • Jan 18, 2009 7:50pm Jan 18, 2009 7:50pm
To all people trading FS these past few months...

I am very interested in how you did from September 1, 2008 through the present. Can you speak in terms of pips achieved (broken out by pair) and what your pip drawdowns were? We all have different money management, so pips are a universal language.

Most of my strategies require low volatility, and since September I have been mostly sitting on the sidelines.
  • #108
  • Jan 18, 2009 8:51pm Jan 18, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting tdion

Most of my strategies require low volatility, and since September I have been mostly sitting on the sidelines.
What are those strategies, and why are you mostly sitting on the sidelines? Inquiring minds want to know! LOL
  • #109
  • Jan 18, 2009 8:53pm Jan 18, 2009 8:53pm
Quoting Bobcat2
What are those strategies, and why are you mostly sitting on the sidelines? Inquiring minds want to know! LOL

I'm going to take a stab in the dark and guess it's because the recent months have been very volatile=)
  • #110
  • Jan 18, 2009 9:07pm Jan 18, 2009 9:07pm
Opening Range Breakout is a profitable trading concept.

Evidences do lean to the fact that Joel is a very experienced trader. For this alone, I believe that he knows many things that many of us are ignorant about.

Quoting hanover
Just a quick aside, I wouldn't pay 10 cents for any position sizing algorithm.
I have always wondered what are the elements that made up Joel's and other traders' position sizing algorithms. Personally, if possible, I would very very happily pay ten cents for anything from a good source which offers me the possibility of learning something. I find it more beneficial not to hold onto my own believes too tightly.
  • #111
  • Jan 18, 2009 9:13pm Jan 18, 2009 9:13pm
Show us the evidence that Joel is an experienced trader.

As for staying out these past few months.... I like tight trends on the EURUSD.... too much volatility stops me out and gives me too many signals.

For example (and this is not one of my current strategies) you could use a James16 pinbar on the hourly.... in recent years that would have been very profitable....

But have you seen all these crazy pinbars since September? When the ATR goes through the roof, candle formations are chaotic, and most of the babies go out with the bathwater.
  • #112
  • Edited 11:44pm Jan 18, 2009 11:24pm | Edited 11:44pm
Quoting tdion
We all have different money management, so pips are a universal language.
This is something where I have to disagree. It's all about stops (if you use proper MM), not pips. If you have a tight stop, you should use bigger position to get equal risk for each trade and as this is volatility breakout results will then differ widely from each other based on last weeks volatility. Low volatility = tight stop = larger position = bigger win if you get a win and volatility increases. Therefore pips don't really tell anything.

On this kind of a system [where stops differ very much] if system wins always after low volatility times and loses at high volatility (this is an example, not how this system works), the pips could be negative and profit would still be there.

ps. did you check the curves that I produced via mt4 1min data? Do they mirror your results?

pps. I don't trade this system live, it's too volatile for my taste. However I use something quite similar in my discretionary trading as a trend filter.
  • #113
  • Jan 19, 2009 12:56am Jan 19, 2009 12:56am
Quoting orange
Personally, if possible, I would very very happily pay ten cents for anything from a good source which offers me the possibility of learning something. I find it more beneficial not to hold onto my own believes too tightly.
These are not "my own beliefs". MM and expectancy are basic concepts in probability theory. Why pay for education that's freely available using an internet search engine?

Did you download and try the spreadsheets in the links in my previous post (#99)?
  • #114
  • Jan 19, 2009 12:59am Jan 19, 2009 12:59am
That thread is excellent IMHO.

Quoting hanover
Did you download and try the spreadsheets in the links in my previous post (#99)?


Hello Mikkom...

I wrote those EAs 10 months ago, and don't have them handy ATM. Trying to fry a whale of an EA right now.... extremely robust code because several K will be at risk..... Perhaps I will check into it at a later time.
  • #115
  • Jan 19, 2009 1:52am Jan 19, 2009 1:52am
Quoting tdion
To all people trading FS these past few months...

I am very interested in how you did from September 1, 2008 through the present. Can you speak in terms of pips achieved (broken out by pair) and what your pip drawdowns were? We all have different money management, so pips are a universal language.

Most of my strategies require low volatility, and since September I have been mostly sitting on the sidelines.
You asked for the FS/ONS.

I can only deliver the results from my own modified version (cut to intraday level trading but based on the same principles)

On a different note: I have tested FS (without ONS) over and over as described in J. Rensink's original method document and added simple core equity money management and position sizing models - and it performed very poorly without losing or winning too much.

For everyone else reading the this thread: the concept behind the strategies is more important. I suppose that might have been the original intend of the starter of this thread - to find out wht could be done with the concept to make it profitable - or not.

regards
daytrading
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc ORT September 2008.doc   95 KB | 626 downloads
File Type: doc ORT October 2008.doc   96 KB | 627 downloads
File Type: doc ORT November 2008.doc   96 KB | 458 downloads
File Type: doc ORT December 2008.doc   96 KB | 553 downloads
File Type: doc ORT January 2009.doc   93 KB | 615 downloads
File Type: doc ORT indiv curr..doc   32 KB | 672 downloads
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  • #116
  • Jan 19, 2009 2:50am Jan 19, 2009 2:50am
Quoting daytrading
You asked for the FS/ONS.

I can only deliver the results from my own modified version (cut to intraday level trading but based on the same principles)
hi daytrading,
Could you please tell us a little bit about your MM, SL and Position sizing? I could be helpful in order to learn from Joel's blog and from his FS and FSP-system.

By the way, I'm trading Joel's system live, closing the positions mostly before Monday morning - depends on resistance/support etc. Until now it works quite well, but I am not sure if it will continue in 2009. For me it is a learning experience, a basic system that can be improved. And your modifications seem to be promising.

regards,
07nioe
  • #117
  • Jan 19, 2009 3:14am Jan 19, 2009 3:14am
Quoting 07nioe
hi daytrading,
Could you please tell us a little bit about your MM, SL and Position sizing? I could be helpful in order to learn from Joel's blog and from his FS and FSP-system.

By the way, I'm trading Joel's system live, closing the positions mostly before Monday morning - depends on resistance/support etc. Until now it works quite well, but I am not sure if it will continue in 2009. For me it is a learning experience, a basic system that can be improved. And your modifications seem to be promising.

regards,
07nioe
Hi 07

Read my post #51

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #118
  • Jan 19, 2009 3:15am Jan 19, 2009 3:15am
Quoting daytrading
I can only deliver the results from my own modified version (cut to intraday level trading but based on the same principles)
Would it be too rude to ask a little detail on what kind of intraday method you are using [in general sense, I'm not askin precise logic]? I have been pondering about intraday version myself too, haven't just had energy to develop one. My idea was basically to use session [london/ny/tok] open ranges and its relation to previous same session, day range plus previous weekly range. If this sounds hazy it's because I haven't totally thought this over yet.
  • #119
  • Jan 19, 2009 3:50am Jan 19, 2009 3:50am
Quoting mikkom
Would it be too rude to ask a little detail on what kind of intraday method you are using [in general sense, I'm not askin precise logic]?
hi,
what i can derive from daytrading's results is that he uses a 80 pips sl (or a trailing sl) and closes the positions in the evening. That's it. Does anybody know a little bit more about the secrets of daytrading's system?

regards,
07nioe
  • #120
  • Jan 19, 2009 3:59am Jan 19, 2009 3:59am
Guys (and Girls):

Without wishing to sound arrogant or patronizing, everything there is to know about the basics can be found in various threads/links to websites.

The data I have supplied can be analyzed as to what position sizing and MM I was using for the set. (one of the attachments actually states the starting equity as well as the position size and risk per trade used)

Further to this, I have mentioned that I modified a method (first strike) from what it is to an intraday method. That in itself should tell you what kind of modifications I have made. (one extra clue: I am using 5m data-streams since I believe it is sufficient)

Besides that, none of the data is curve-fitted and whenever in doubt, I booked the biggest possible loss, in order not to end up with couloured or unrealistic results.

I calculate slippage at max. 5-6% per year basd on the fact that you would perform an avg of 5 trades per day or approx. 1300 trades per year.

That is all I am prepared to offer since this is not my thread.

regards
daytrading
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