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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,741
  • Mar 17, 2007 3:22pm Mar 17, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting jarroo
Closed out my last lot at 1.3312. What a ride. 127 pips.

Have a good weekend everyone. Drink plenty of Green Beer on me.

Jim
Well done Jim!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #2,742
  • Edited 9:18pm Mar 17, 2007 3:53pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting hard1head1
Dean, 90 % of the time when a major trend line is broken, the price will come back to test the back (Exa.1). This is the time to get in on a good signal after the test and is where I get in. The reason being is that I have seen them broken and pop back inside the trend line which is an nasty end to what was once thought a no-brainer trade. I have been taken like that back when I first started. So, In my view a signal from Phils stategy coupled with a re-tested trend line is my idea of Gold. Then again you get the dreaded ( Blew By You) which doesn't stop, doesn't test, and in this case I miss this trade (Exa2). I accept this since I am looking for the best possible trades, thus I miss a couple and I accept this and thats the way it is.

Jim
Jim, I am fascinated with your observation. This pair - usd/jpy - is really a great inspiration. I turned the chart into monthly and flipped it. You can see where the price is, today, in pullback territory. "If I have million dollars", then this is probably a life-time opportunity for monthly swing players, he-he. Just do not laugh at me - I like classic stuff. I am reading classic books over the weekend. Yours, T.
Attached Image
  • #2,743
  • Mar 17, 2007 5:18pm Mar 17, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting hard1head1
Dean, 90 % of the time when a major trend line is broken, the price will come back to test the back (Exa.1). This is the time to get in on a good signal after the test and is where I get in. The reason being is that I have seen them broken and pop back inside the trend line which is an nasty end to what was once thought a no-brainer trade. I have been taken like that back when I first started. So, In my view a signal from Phils stategy coupled with a re-tested trend line is my idea of Gold. Then again you get the dreaded ( Blew By You) which doesn't stop, doesn't test, and in this case I miss this trade (Exa2). I accept this since I am looking for the best possible trades, thus I miss a couple and I accept this and thats the way it is.

Jim
Jim,
Great!
U have turned out to be an expert so fast!
I am glad and hope to hear from you more of similar postings.
-Chandra.
  • #2,744
  • Mar 17, 2007 5:25pm Mar 17, 2007 5:25pm
Quoting Digitaldean
If price is aproching a strong trend line on the 4H chart and at the trend line MACD turns and does not give a rounded top/bottom signal but gives more of an agressive signal, would you still take the trade if you can get a 30 pips stop behind the trend line?

If we get a double top that consists of 2 agressive tops not rounded tops (see the usdjpy on the 5th march) do you still consider this to be a double top or does it have to be 2 rounded tops?

Thanks

DD
DD,
Both your questions are very useful ones for all of us.
As I learned form past discussions in this thread, aggressive tops (bottoms) are more poserful and worth a try, if not for long haul, at least for small, quick gain. (Phillip, please correct me ASAP if I am wrong because, if I am wrong, I am misleading others and myself and that is bad).
Now, back to you DD. What prompted you to say "30 pip stop behind the rred line"?
-Chandra
  • #2,745
  • Edited 6:23pm Mar 17, 2007 6:03pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting hard1head1
Dean, 90 % of the time when a major trend line is broken, the price will come back to test the back (Exa.1). This is the time to get in on a good signal after the test and is where I get in. The reason being is that I have seen them broken and pop back inside the trend line which is an nasty end to what was once thought a no-brainer trade. I have been taken like that back when I first started. So, In my view a signal from Phils stategy coupled with a re-tested trend line is my idea of Gold. Then again you get the dreaded ( Blew By You) which doesn't stop, doesn't test, and in this case I miss this trade (Exa2). I accept this since I am looking for the best possible trades, thus I miss a couple and I accept this and thats the way it is.

Jim
Hi,
Just some thoughts on the charts that you posted :

The first chart shows a very classic ABC formation and as you discovered had a very nice sweet spot for the entry.

The second chart shows an ABC formation that formed as a triangle prior to the breakout. When one of these blows by you as may be the occurance - don't walk away and think that you have missed the trade. On the contrary, be on the look out for the "hook". The "hook" is the first pull back to test the 21 EMA and any other MA that may be in confluence (see your red line on your second chart - the "hook" is where price did the retest). The break from this area is often also a good place to "stand in front of the market" because once again, it can not move against its own momentum, hence it is another sweet spot and is a classic swing trader technique often employed after an ABC move..
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #2,746
  • Mar 17, 2007 7:02pm Mar 17, 2007 7:02pm
Thanks FX, Ill try to remember that.

Jim
  • #2,747
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:21am Mar 18, 2007 6:21am
Hello,

Thanks for the very informative posts.

I am just new in fx trading, barely 5 months. I have read much about this 4H MACD strategy, and I liked it so much, albeit I still get very confused, especially while the pattern are forming.

Question - is this 4H strategy strictly for 4H setup only, or I can use it for 1H or 30M setup too?

Because I saw the other thread of Philip Nel, the 5M strategy, and it uses a completely different style.

Help please?
  • #2,748
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:37am Mar 18, 2007 7:37am
Hi everyone

This thread is going to reach soon 200 pages!!
I've been reading it from a couple of weeks and I found it extremely interesting. Actually it is much more than a trading system.
I would say that is trading itself!! So thanks to Phil that is teaching us everyday something new.

But for everyone that discover it right now, could be difficult start reading the thread from the beginning.
I wanted to do something to help everyone to read it all.

So I tried to create a file word that contains the most interesting post of the thread with all the chart attached in the same file word.
I saved all the Mp3 and the most important PDF contained and put them in a zip file
Where there is post with a PDF or MP3 I put the name of the mp3 so you can easily find it in the zip file above mentioned.

It is not a summary because it is almost 300 pages but I wanted to leave all the useful informations & examples. I've made a subjective selection of what to put in the file. Obviously I put all the post of "Master Phil"!!

The file word zipped is about 8 mb (because of the chart attached in it)
The zipped file with mp3 and pdf weight about 27 MB.
I upload all the files to the following link; it is an host file site free.

Word zipped file

  1. http://rs31tl.rapidshare.com/files/2...H_strategy.zip

Attachment zipped file (mp3 & pdf)

  1. http://rs22l33.rapidshare.com/files/21614033/Attach.zip

I hope that it help!! for me it is very useful: I've printed the 300 page and i study it every evening...

p.s. sorry for my basic english, I hope that you all understand
p.p.s: please PM me if you have any problem downloading the files

  • #2,749
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:39am Mar 18, 2007 7:39am
Quoting nsscott
I have been doing the same type thing with my entries. I have been using a fib calculation of the signal bar. I hope for a 50% retrace of the bar and place a pending order at 45%. If the close is already around 50%, it is likely a weak signal, so you likely should find other reasons to take the trade or even better skip it!. But if the price is near the high [on a long signal], you likely have a decent setup. When this happens I just place the pending order, which also allows me to not have to be glued to the screen. If I am filled and it continues against me, the loss should be manageable due to the "cheapskate entry".

love to hear your thoughts...

Scott
Hi Scott, thanks for helping tto clear this up for me. If i got this right, you do a "cheapskate" entry order at 45% retracement of the previous candle(the one that give the macd signal) if it closes around the high? That would sure get a better price and better r/r too. What % would you say of these entry orders works for you? Thanks Scott.
  • #2,750
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:44am Mar 18, 2007 7:44am
Quoting hard1head1
Dean, 90 % of the time when a major trend line is broken, the price will come back to test the back (Exa.1). This is the time to get in on a good signal after the test and is where I get in. The reason being is that I have seen them broken and pop back inside the trend line which is an nasty end to what was once thought a no-brainer trade. I have been taken like that back when I first started. So, In my view a signal from Phils stategy coupled with a re-tested trend line is my idea of Gold. Then again you get the dreaded ( Blew By You) which doesn't stop, doesn't test, and in this case I miss this trade (Exa2). I accept this since I am looking for the best possible trades, thus I miss a couple and I accept this and thats the way it is.

Jim
HH Jim, DD and FX, this is really good stuff. Your contributions are most appreciatd Thanks
  • #2,751
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:49am Mar 18, 2007 7:49am
Quoting kunz78
Hi everyone

This thread is going to reach soon 200 pages!!
I've been reading it from a couple of weeks and I found it extremely interesting. Actually it is much more than a trading system.
I would say that is trading itself!! So thanks to Phil that is teaching us everyday something new.

But for everyone that discover it right now, could be difficult start reading the thread from the beginning.
I wanted to do something to help everyone to read it all.

So I tried to create a file word that contains the most interesting post of the thread with all the chart attached in the same file word.
I saved all the Mp3 and the most important PDF contained and put them in a zip file
Where there is post with a PDF or MP3 I put the name of the mp3 so you can easily find it in the zip file above mentioned.

It is not a summary because it is almost 300 pages but I wanted to leave all the useful informations & examples. I've made a subjective selection of what to put in the file. Obviously I put all the post of "Master Phil"!!

The file word zipped is about 8 mb (because of the chart attached in it)
The zipped file with mp3 and pdf weight about 27 MB.
I upload all the files to the following link; it is an host file site free.

Word zipped file

  1. http://rs31tl.rapidshare.com/files/2...H_strategy.zip

Attachment zipped file (mp3 & pdf)

  1. http://rs22l33.rapidshare.com/files/21614033/Attach.zip

I hope that it help!! for me it is very useful: I've printed the 300 page and i study it every evening...

p.s. sorry for my basic english, I hope that you all understand
p.p.s: please PM me if you have any problem downloading the files

Thanks kunz78, appreciate of your effort
  • #2,752
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:03am Mar 18, 2007 8:03am
Everyone,

I have stayed away from the GBP/JPY simply beacuse of the 80-90 pip retracements. I have now figured out how to make this work for you. Check this pair out, and I know it has a 10 pip spread, but the way this thing moves, it really doesn't matter. Just recently it has had a 2 day move of over 1000 pips. I have seen this thing move 400 pips in one day. I got in Friday on a trendline break, after an evening star on the 4 hour, a bearish engulfing candle on the 1 hour and a T/C formation from the 4 hour strategy. With all that you cant miss, I didn't miss, I made 75 pips after those signals. I got out at market close cause I didnt want to lose what I gained over the weekend from a gap. Has a lot more gas in the tank and am looking at another 400 pips. Gonna wait for a nice long retracement and get back in. Beware, however, this pair has huge retraces and can clean out your account in a heartbeat.
Attached Images
  • #2,753
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:27am Mar 18, 2007 8:27am
On my chart the USD/JPY is three small bars into a break of the MACD zero line, the 8 is crossing below the 21, and the last (small) candle is still in contact with the 21. Additionally, we are coming off a tag of the 89.

Would now be a good entry?

Reason: The 3-16-2007 12:00 candle represented a dip down away from the 21 followed by a retrace (tag) to the 21 by both the 16:00 and 20:00 candles. Price is now ready to "run away" from the 21, correct?

Randy
Attached Image
  • #2,754
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:30am Mar 18, 2007 8:30am
Oh, and how about this little TC gem on the 1H.......

On EDIT: If agreed this is still a valid entry, the S/L would be at the 21 (30 pips) and a T/P target?????

Randy
Attached Image
  • #2,755
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:34am Mar 18, 2007 8:34am
Quoting hard1head1
Everyone,

I have stayed away from the GBP/JPY simply beacuse of the 80-90 pip retracements. I have now figured out how to make this work for you. Check this pair out, and I know it has a 10 pip spread, but the way this thing moves, it really doesn't matter. Just recently it has had a 2 day move of over 1000 pips. I have seen this thing move 400 pips in one day. I got in Friday on a trendline break, after an evening star on the 4 hour, a bearish engulfing candle on the 1 hour and a T/C formation from the 4 hour strategy. With all that you cant miss, I didn't miss, I made 75 pips after those signals. I got out at market close cause I didnt want to lose what I gained over the weekend from a gap. Has a lot more gas in the tank and am looking at another 400 pips. Gonna wait for a nice long retracement and get back in. Beware, however, this pair has huge retraces and can clean out your account in a heartbeat.
Hi Jim, when you are waiting for the retracement, is that where it retests the trendline it broke when you entered as you described in your 90% of the time it will retest( previous post)?
Thanks
  • #2,756
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:50am Mar 18, 2007 8:50am
No, I dont want it to come back that far. Just a nice little retracement with a nice little t/c from Phils strategy would be great. Maybe just after it comes back to the 21 EMA. I stress, BE VERY CAREFULL WITH THIS PAIR, IF YOU HAVE NEVER TRADED IT, USE A DEMO ACCOUNT. Gotta go

P.S. This pair may not retest the back, since the movement is so great, dont count on it.
Jim
  • #2,757
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:19am Mar 18, 2007 9:19am
Quoting kunz78
Hi everyone

This thread is going to reach soon 200 pages!!
I've been reading it from a couple of weeks and I found it extremely interesting. Actually it is much more than a trading system.
I would say that is trading itself!! So thanks to Phil that is teaching us everyday something new.

But for everyone that discover it right now, could be difficult start reading the thread from the beginning.
I wanted to do something to help everyone to read it all.

So I tried to create a file word that contains the most interesting post of the thread with all the chart attached in the same file word.
I saved all the Mp3 and the most important PDF contained and put them in a zip file
Where there is post with a PDF or MP3 I put the name of the mp3 so you can easily find it in the zip file above mentioned.

It is not a summary because it is almost 300 pages but I wanted to leave all the useful informations & examples. I've made a subjective selection of what to put in the file. Obviously I put all the post of "Master Phil"!!

The file word zipped is about 8 mb (because of the chart attached in it)
The zipped file with mp3 and pdf weight about 27 MB.
I upload all the files to the following link; it is an host file site free.

Word zipped file

  1. http://rs31tl.rapidshare.com/files/2...H_strategy.zip

Attachment zipped file (mp3 & pdf)

  1. http://rs22l33.rapidshare.com/files/21614033/Attach.zip

I hope that it help!! for me it is very useful: I've printed the 300 page and i study it every evening...

p.s. sorry for my basic english, I hope that you all understand
p.p.s: please PM me if you have any problem downloading the files



Thank you a lot. I will download for myself to backup and to give away to people.
  • #2,758
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:30am Mar 18, 2007 9:30am
Philip,

I want to thank you to sharing your knowledge!
I just wanted to do something back..

Hope that it help
  • #2,759
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:37am Mar 18, 2007 9:37am
thanks kunz78
you saved me from reading 184 pages
  • #2,760
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:41am Mar 18, 2007 9:41am
[quote=kunz78;247102]Hi everyone

This thread is going to reach soon 200 pages!!
I've been reading it from a couple of weeks and I found it extremely interesting. Actually it is much more than a trading system.
I would say that is trading itself!! So thanks to Phil that is teaching us everyday something new.

But for everyone that discover it right now, could be difficult start reading the thread from the beginning.
I wanted to do something to help everyone to read it all.


This is what is special about this thread. So many people willing to help. This is a great community!!!

Thanks Kunz for this.
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