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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,721
  • Edited 4:10pm Mar 16, 2007 2:42pm | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Very good run. Will give you the confidence.
Thanks, Phillip. Thanks for your advise, teachings, mp3s, and perspective of the markets. If people take the time to get the "feel" of your stragety they will be successful. It does take time. I have only been trading it for only a short time. I'm sure I will be better at finding good deals as time progresses. I think if people look for only Trend Continuation patterns in the beginning, their rate of success (and Confidence) will improve.

For now, I only trade(T.C.) live with a micro account and demo account counter trends trade. Guess which account has grown?

Thanks again for your help and continued education,

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,722
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:25pm Mar 16, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting tamkras
I did not monitor aud last night and saw that it made another high, along with euro. What is chasing them? Anyway, hope you did not short it around 0.7920 because the strong trend continued and price pushed thru the resistance levels easily. I just imagine how many positions of impatient traders burned over this night. Now what? I am still in game. The price is trying to push thru the high made on January 2nd this year and all the rules are in place. If you have ability to convert your chart to 8HR, then you could see it. Good luck.
Hi T,

I watched and didn't get conformation for the short, so I passed on the trade. Didn't fit the set up and thought with the market acting outside of what I had planned for, my bed seemed like a better place to be. Thought it might be cheaper to sleep than to force a trade Have a nice weekend
  • #2,723
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:27pm Mar 16, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting jarroo
This looks good. GBP is trending down, 365, 200 and 89 sloping down. 8 & 21 are flating or maybe turning down. I am now waiting for the MACD to confirm this with a Aggressive Reversal. To me, it is following the trend. If confirmed signal, I will see how price acts around the 9400 level. We'll see.

Jim
Looks like GBPUSD might have finally gotten a kick in the pants and will finally start moving again! Has been a painful week watching that pair.....
  • #2,724
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:33pm Mar 16, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting Pipsi cola
Hardhead,
the same head&shoulders patter has formed on the usd/chf 4hour graph during the past two weeks. only the whole formation is sloping downwards as oppose to usd/jpy h&s patter which is sloping upwards. as you already know the h&s of eur/usd just broke upwards, not downwards like it was supposed to, so i better hold back on explaining this phenomena with usd/chf and usd/jpy, but looking forward to hear from our experts of the thread.
Have a good weekend everybody!
Not expert....but sounds like flight from risk in both cases! CHF has been getting much stronger against the dollar b/c of concerns re:subprime mortgages (so break lower was and probably still is in the cards). 4 hr has been giving great signals for USDCHF TC (pullback to 21 followed by TC). I missed my entry point by a few pips (per my plan) and missed the short from upper TL and don't know where I was for break below low...oh well, next week will present many more opportunities to gather pips!!
  • #2,725
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:35pm Mar 16, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Looks like GBPUSD might have finally gotten a kick in the pants and will finally start moving again! Has been a painful week watching that pair.....
You can say that again. I think we are going to see nice signals next week. We came through a bad patch. If you manage to be break even or even a little in the green this week you did well. The 5min strategy kept me going. 75pips for the week.
  • #2,726
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:36pm Mar 16, 2007 3:36pm
Quoting jarroo
Closed out my last lot at 1.3312. What a ride. 127 pips.

Have a good weekend everyone. Drink plenty of Green Beer on me.

Jim
See what happens when you scout the river first? You get a great ride through the rapids (and no one goes for a swim)!

Thanks for your explaination re:entry! Beautiful!!!!!!!!
  • #2,727
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:40pm Mar 16, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
You can say that again. I think we are going to see nice signals next week. We came through a bad patch. If you manage to be break even or even a little in the green this week you did well. The 5min strategy kept me going. 75pips for the week.
Great Job! I managed a few pips this week too. Now it is time to rest up for the week ahead! I agree w/next week seeing nice signals! Have a fantastic weekend!!!!!!
  • #2,728
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:48pm Mar 16, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Great Job! I managed a few pips this week too. Now it is time to rest up for the week ahead! I agree w/next week seeing nice signals! Have a fantastic weekend!!!!!!

Nice weekend to you as well and to everybody out there. Thanks for the participation and willingness to help each other. It makes it so much easier for me.
  • #2,729
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:57pm Mar 16, 2007 8:57pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
You can say that again. I think we are going to see nice signals next week. We came through a bad patch. If you manage to be break even or even a little in the green this week you did well. The 5min strategy kept me going. 75pips for the week.
Thanks Phillip, looking forward to what next week has for us and learning more from you, 40 pips this week, finally went positive, have a great weekend, all your effort is very much appreciate
  • #2,730
  • Mar 16, 2007 9:23pm Mar 16, 2007 9:23pm
thanks for your patient training This week i forund 3 trades all closed at a profit. I will be reading the enitre thread and reviewing the downloads which your generously provided. This week was on demo and i plan to go live on a micro account next week. I look forwarda to the excitement you project. Thanks a Million Cliff =D>
  • #2,731
  • Mar 17, 2007 7:24am Mar 17, 2007 7:24am
Phillip or anyone,

This is something im sure You may have noticed already but il post it all the same.

While i have been back testing and in real trading of this MACD method I have noticed that more often than not when a 4H trend line is broken price will retrace back to the trend line giving a very nice signal before taking off, usually also bouncing off of the 21 ema. I have traded 2 of these signals and found a great entry off of the 1H charts. What do you think of these entries?

Thanks

DD
  • #2,732
  • Mar 17, 2007 7:51am Mar 17, 2007 7:51am
If price is aproching a strong trend line on the 4H chart and at the trend line MACD turns and does not give a rounded top/bottom signal but gives more of an agressive signal, would you still take the trade if you can get a 30 pips stop behind the trend line?

If we get a double top that consists of 2 agressive tops not rounded tops (see the usdjpy on the 5th march) do you still consider this to be a double top or does it have to be 2 rounded tops?

Thanks

DD
  • #2,733
  • Mar 17, 2007 8:25am Mar 17, 2007 8:25am
Dean, 90 % of the time when a major trend line is broken, the price will come back to test the back (Exa.1). This is the time to get in on a good signal after the test and is where I get in. The reason being is that I have seen them broken and pop back inside the trend line which is an nasty end to what was once thought a no-brainer trade. I have been taken like that back when I first started. So, In my view a signal from Phils stategy coupled with a re-tested trend line is my idea of Gold. Then again you get the dreaded ( Blew By You) which doesn't stop, doesn't test, and in this case I miss this trade (Exa2). I accept this since I am looking for the best possible trades, thus I miss a couple and I accept this and thats the way it is.

Jim
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  • #2,734
  • Mar 17, 2007 8:35am Mar 17, 2007 8:35am
Hi Al
  • #2,735
  • Mar 17, 2007 8:50am Mar 17, 2007 8:50am
Quoting hard1head1
Dean, 90 % of the time when a major trend line is broken, the price will come back to test the back (Exa.1). This is the time to get in on a good signal after the test and is where I get in. The reason being is that I have seen them broken and pop back inside the trend line which is an nasty end to what was once thought a no-brainer trade. I have been taken like that back when I first started. So, In my view a signal from Phils stategy coupled with a re-tested trend line is my idea of Gold. Then again you get the dreaded ( Blew By You) which doesn't stop, doesn't test, and in this case I miss this trade (Exa2). I accept this since I am looking for the best possible trades, thus I miss a couple and I accept this and thats the way it is.

Jim
Thanks for your input on that, I am putting together my trading rules on papaer and I wasnt sure if i should include that setup or not. I think i will though.

Its difficult to write hard fast rules for a system with some much discretion involved. Its also difficult to back test it.

DD
  • #2,736
  • Mar 17, 2007 9:05am Mar 17, 2007 9:05am
Dean,

This is one you can backtest, prove and see in any pair, any day and on any time frame. Just draw your lines from tops and off bottoms and you will see what I mean, don't just take my word for it.

J
  • #2,737
  • Mar 17, 2007 9:15am Mar 17, 2007 9:15am
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  • #2,738
  • Mar 17, 2007 9:41am Mar 17, 2007 9:41am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info

Phillip,

Thanks for spending the time to answer my questions.

Cheers

Dean
  • #2,739
  • Edited 2:17pm Mar 17, 2007 1:35pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Phillip or anyone,

This is something im sure You may have noticed already but il post it all the same.

While i have been back testing and in real trading of this MACD method I have noticed that more often than not when a 4H trend line is broken price will retrace back to the trend line giving a very nice signal before taking off, usually also bouncing off of the 21 ema. I have traded 2 of these signals and found a great entry off of the 1H charts. What do you think of these entries?
Thanks

DD
You have observed a very classic chart pattern (ABC or 123) that can be traded very succesfully as a breakout pattern trade. These occur quite often, as you have observed, at important trend line breaks. One can grow one's account nicely by becoming a bit of an expert at these. The beauty of them is that they often allow you to step in front of the market at a point when the market can not go against it's own momentum (the break of the B point). This is a very sweet spot to be in - quick profits, quick break even, small stop loss. They certainly are worth watching for and practicing. MACD gives a nice signal on them - bonus!
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #2,740
  • Mar 17, 2007 3:16pm Mar 17, 2007 3:16pm
Quoting jarroo
Good question. I don't have a specific way of telling how long to wait. That's why I said that it will probably burn me soon. Much like entering a trade to early, anticipating the signal, is not a smart thing to do.

If I get a signal. My favorite (obviously) is the Trend Continuation signal. I look to see where the 8 ema, 21 ema, trend line, S/R levels, etc. are in relation to that signal. If price immediately drops (in a long trade) I'll wait to see if it will bounce off those MAs, trendlines, etc. The problem is that price may just take off and there I am waiting, as pips pass me by. So, waiting to long I may miss a trade that would have been a no brainer.

Jim
I have been doing the same type thing with my entries. I have been using a fib calculation of the signal bar. I hope for a 50% retrace of the bar and place a pending order at 45%. If the close is already around 50%, it is likely a weak signal, so you likely should find other reasons to take the trade or even better skip it!. But if the price is near the high [on a long signal], you likely have a decent setup. When this happens I just place the pending order, which also allows me to not have to be glued to the screen. If I am filled and it continues against me, the loss should be manageable due to the "cheapskate entry".

love to hear your thoughts...

Scott
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