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  • #56,401
  • Edited 10:10am Jan 14, 2009 9:59am | Edited 10:10am
Also keep an eye on the Dow, not looking too good today thus far!
  • #56,402
  • Jan 14, 2009 10:01am Jan 14, 2009 10:01am
Quoting Farstrider
I think it means that the market movers are short biased and if the news is not MUCH worse than anticipated they continue to short. At the moment it feels like any news is $ positive

Very good point. It's looking like the market is beginning to interpret the sales figures as MUCH worse judging by the way the DOW is tanking and unlike after the NFP figures U/J is now falling faster than E/J so that E/U is rising. It's interesting to try to understand fundamentals but IMO it's far better to trade technicals.

Safe trading
  • #56,403
  • Jan 14, 2009 10:08am Jan 14, 2009 10:08am
Quoting Naked
No offend. Many thanks. What learning material would you recommend? I like your answer very much, thus I ask you. Thanks.
well, at least once in your trading career you should go through all the lessons on www.babypips.com , that's a great eye opener

then if you have the time go ahead and read some decent technical analysis books, one of them is Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by john murphy

and Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition by Steve Nison

these will give you a very good knowledge after which you will definetly feel more comfortable assessing trades.

and the invaluable advise someone gave me long time back : practice, practice, practice , and then practice some more!!

best of luck, by the way these books are only my personal recommendation, someone might think that other titles are better, no problem , as long as you cover these topics you'll know after that how to get more education.

All the best for you and everyone in this forum
  • #56,404
  • Jan 14, 2009 10:28am Jan 14, 2009 10:28am
Quoting gregam1128
Also keep an eye on the Dow, not looking too good today thus far!
Could you explain correlation between dow jones and eur/usd? thx
Vedanta - The End Of Knowledge. ~ J. Krishnamurti ~
  • #56,405
  • Jan 14, 2009 10:32am Jan 14, 2009 10:32am
Quoting Naked
No offend. Many thanks. What learning material would you recommend? I like your answer very much, thus I ask you. Thanks.
Naked,

For what its worth, I've also blown up an account in the past and I demo'd for a full 12 months after that to get my method and MM right.
Don't put on any more trades until you've read Steve Nison's Candlestick Charting Techniques. I also would recommend "Come into my Trading Room" by Elder.

Tried just about every system I could find using custom indicators. I once had about 8 indicators on one chart from Macd, Ichimoku, CCI, RSI...etc, very pretty, but completely useless. I couldn't even see the price, but I convinced myself that they work because it looks good and so-and-so used them on a forum somewhere. You would not believe how many pointless hours I've wasted changing settings and re-testing and then changing them again. The best indicator is in your head. Oh and don't buy/use EAs either, they WILL blow up your account. GUARANTEED.

Just read, re-read and start off very, very small. You will be surprised how compounding will grow your account.

Good luck

Dazzer
  • #56,406
  • Jan 14, 2009 10:44am Jan 14, 2009 10:44am
Quoting Aloen
Could you explain correlation between dow jones and eur/usd? thx
Correlating equites and curreny puts you in dangerous, shark infested waters my friend. I would stay away.
  • #56,407
  • Jan 14, 2009 10:46am Jan 14, 2009 10:46am
Quoting Aloen
Could you explain correlation between dow jones and eur/usd? thx
Sometimes they don't. Depends on investor sentiment, and what investors chose to use as a safe haven for risk aversion. ie gold, crude, etc.
  • #56,408
  • Jan 14, 2009 10:59am Jan 14, 2009 10:59am
Quoting Dazzer
Naked,

For what its worth, I've also blown up an account in the past and I demo'd for a full 12 months after that to get my method and MM right.
Don't put on any more trades until you've read Steve Nison's Candlestick Charting Techniques. I also would recommend "Come into my Trading Room" by Elder.

Tried just about every system I could find using custom indicators. I once had about 8 indicators on one chart from Macd, Ichimoku, CCI, RSI...etc, very pretty, but completely useless. I couldn't even see the price, but I convinced myself that they...
Thank you Dazzer and Zoheir for your kind words and suggestions. You can't believe but I've just already ordered the candestick book you both recommended

After testing tens & 100s of different indicators I came to the same conclusion as Dazzer - indicators just clutter the space. Now I'll try the 'naked eye' approach, thus my nickname


Thanks!!
Live to ride. Ride to live.
  • #56,409
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:09am Jan 14, 2009 11:09am
may any one exlpain why the sudden drop around 2pm, and the slow rise starting back up again?
  • #56,410
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:11am Jan 14, 2009 11:11am
Quoting Aloen
Could you explain correlation between dow jones and eur/usd? thx
There's correlation actually, if you know about Asset Management. Movements of funds into and out off..Index,Currencies,Stock& Shares, treasury. These are the workings of large funds like banks, insurance companies, They all have their impact in some form.
  • #56,411
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:14am Jan 14, 2009 11:14am
Quoting "expert"
Did you see it did go above 30 m 62 ema after all like i was thinking it will?
Yeah, 15 hours ago and posted as much...

You know, I never questioned your S/R levels, as I pretty much have the same ones on 2 completely different charting packages that have almost nothing in common with each other.

What I questioned then ((and still do)) is what YOU saw that made YOU think it would get there in the first place. I saw the same levels and saw no good reason for price to go there, as I stated in my follow-on posts. Your one reply didn't really clear that up, or else I missed something in it.

I have my thoughts now in hindsight ((on last nights PA)), but that's on the other side of some trashed shorts that wound up ultimately approaching my targets but got stopped out first. Oh well, that's trading...

In any event it was great call that was spot on and then some, but w/o some reasoning to go with it, it's just words to me and I usually move on pretty fast. I was curious about that all night actually.

I'd really like to encourage you to expand on what you're looking at on WHAT is going to move price thru those kinds of levels in future posts, especially one that runs counter to what's anticipated. I am genuinely anticipating your future posts ...
FUBAR...
  • #56,412
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:19am Jan 14, 2009 11:19am
Quoting tradeinstant
I’m working with whole numbers and either it’s forming a channel between 1.3200 and 1.3100 or it would continue over the 1.3100 level for a while.

That was a great idea.
thanks!
You might want to see the 15M chart.
HUGE CHANNEL
  • #56,413
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:31am Jan 14, 2009 11:31am
Quoting Money-RX
www.dollardaze.org - fate of paper money and numerous articles
www.financialsense.com - Peter Schiff or just about any of the authors

US biggest economy in the world, most aggressive recession remedies, and historically safest haven for $$$$ and investments. For the dollar to weaken which country is stronger or where is there more confidence in another government? As I said earlier the question is will the huge deficit spending fail and create massive inflation...

Good to see there are more people listening to the wise words of Jim Puplava. He his amazing making predictions.

/H
  • #56,414
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:41am Jan 14, 2009 11:41am
Quoting ak4x
Yeah, 15 hours ago and posted as much...

You know, I never questioned your S/R levels, as I pretty much have the same ones on 2 completely different charting packages that have almost nothing in common with each other.

What I questioned then ((and still do)) is what YOU saw that made YOU think it would get there in the first place. I saw the same levels and saw no good reason for price to go there, as I stated in my follow-on posts. Your one reply didn't really clear that up, or else I missed something in it.

I have my thoughts now in hindsight...
For what it's worth CAM Level HL4 was at 1.3315 during last nights move up.

I've been wathching CAM levels for a week to see the can be applied to forex and how to use them effectively.
  • #56,415
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:48am Jan 14, 2009 11:48am
Quoting sccz97
look at my prev post which shows the bb headlines that hit the wires and note the time and then look at the charts.

In terms of whether you think news causes moves, each to their own. But being a day trader in an office full of ppl who make money specifically from trading headlines, I know what I'm talking about. I'll give you a perfect example, tomorrow's ecb conference, the release of the rate decision might cause the market to move some but it's the conference later that the mkt will be focusing on. WAtch the conference while keeping an eye...

You are absolutely right. A lot of people in this thread dosen't seem to give importance to news. Now, not all news affect our currencies but it there are definitely news that do. As a serious trader you should take notice to this. I'm not telling anyone to run and get a subscribtion to either Bloomberg or Reuters, but get a good feed for news.

I need to get a better news provider myself, as soon as my funds get better.

/H
  • #56,416
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:48am Jan 14, 2009 11:48am
Quoting Naked
After testing tens & 100s of different indicators - indicators just clutter the space. Thanks!!
Sounds like you didn't spend the time to get to really know any of them...

The so-called "naked" approach still must of necessity rely on some kind of information input, even it's just candles or a line chart on a screen. A truly naked technique would mean looking at a blank screen.

The chart below is about as Naked as you can get on the right side and still trade, but unfortunately, the chart is a weekly and therefore the data lags by that amount at least...

My point is that now after all the past investment in time and resources into "indicators" you refer to, you're now making a significant shift to yet another "system" in a pendulum swing reaction to some unsatisfactory efforts.

When the end of that path is reached, then where? Not even attempting to suggest what you "ought" to do, but whatever you do, there's a committment to getting to know your tools that is inescapable.

I and I'm sure many other traders here are constantly "evolving" our methods and tools in resonse to a changing market. I run 2 separate charting packages most of the time, a primary and secondary setup... with tons of indi's total, most of which play a limited part in my trading. But I like to tinker and explore so that's what I do. On the other hand, I could trade with nothing more than a couple pivots, a fib and maybe a couple TL's all on one or two TF's if I had to... Wouldn't be any fun, but I could make pips in a pinch.

So before you bash "indi's" just becauz they're there as space waster, make sure you have "yourself" sorted out first or nothing will ever fall into place for you, naked or otherwise in this business.

All the best to you along the way...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #56,417
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:57am Jan 14, 2009 11:57am
Quoting ak4x
Sounds like you didn't spend the time to get to really know any of them...

The so-called "naked" approach still must of necessity rely on some kind of information input, even it's just candles or a line chart on a screen. A truly naked technique would mean looking at a blank screen.

The chart below is about as Naked as you can get on the right side and still trade, but unfortunately, the chart is a weekly and therefore the data lags by that amount at least...

My point is that now after all the past investment in time and resources into "indicators"...
Hey ak4x:

I agree. Most everyone will use some type of indicators in their trading discipline. At the very least TL, MA, Fibs, PA something. We start with indi's and then refine our own trading technique to find what is best suitable. We must have an idea where to even begin to determine price direction and that is where some kind of indicator will have a place.
  • #56,418
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:58am Jan 14, 2009 11:58am
Quoting gregam1128
Those are some really sarcastic answers for someone who is on here asking for directional opinionshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif

Agreed. The discussions so far were great.

/H
  • #56,419
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:59am Jan 14, 2009 11:59am
If this stalls and heads back down we have the above on the M2.
  • #56,420
  • Jan 14, 2009 11:59am Jan 14, 2009 11:59am
Many keep spotting bullish H&S's ................ as we head lower ....... and lower.

Dazzer - my post is coincindental to yours. I was meaning the multiple times lately. Not good to look for a bottom.
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