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  • #56,321
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:54am Jan 14, 2009 3:54am
Quoting FXoffshore
What was the news that moved euro down 137 pips in 40 minutes?
Not sure about the news, but an obvious double top formation returning to the high point at 11:30am yesterday. Also someone mentioned an inverted H&S and its likely that is what we're seeing now. Not perfect, but its there to consider. On days like today however, these formations can change rapidly.
  • #56,322
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:57am Jan 14, 2009 3:57am
LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The euro slid more than a cent against the dollar on Wednesday, with traders citing a report that Ireland's Prime Minister said IMF help may be needed if its economic downturn worsens.
The Irish/German 10-year government bond spread widened slightly to over 175 basis points. Traders cited a report on Bloomberg, quoting Irish news channel RTE.
By 0904 GMT, the euro had fallen more than a cent from session highs hit earlier to $1.3200 <EUR=>, extending losses after weak Italian induatrial output data. The euro also hit a session low against sterling <EURGBP=>.
"This is certainly a negative for the euro," Brown Brothers Harriman currency analyst Audrey Childe-Freeman said.
"So far it has only been emerging economies that have been asking for help and if one of the euro zone countries moved in that direction it would affect credibility and weigh on the currency," she said.
Irish government bonds slightly underperformed benchmark German Bunds following the report, pushing the 10-year Irish/Bund spread marginally wider to 175.4 basis points from 172 basis points.
The spread had been widening in the last few days and hit a historic wide near 177 basis points on Tuesday after Standard & Poors last Friday said it may cut Ireland's AAA sovereign debt rating due to buckling public finances.
(Reporting by London Treasury Team)
  • #56,323
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:00am Jan 14, 2009 4:00am
Quoting sccz97
look at my prev post which shows the bb headlines that hit the wires and note the time and then look at the charts.

In terms of whether you think news causes moves, each to their own. But being a day trader in an office full of ppl who make money specifically from trading headlines, I know what I'm talking about. I'll give you a perfect example, tomorrow's ecb conference, the release of the rate decision might cause the market to move some but it's the conference later that the mkt will be focusing on. WAtch the conference while keeping an eye...
News causes the move and the reaction determines the direction. Any bit of news today will send the market one way or the other.

NB 3rd time luck, will it break???
  • #56,324
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:03am Jan 14, 2009 4:03am
Euro annual industrial output biggest drop since dec 1990
  • #56,325
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:06am Jan 14, 2009 4:06am
Nope. I see retracement north for the short-term. Will not trade that thought quite yet though. Still too choppy for me.
  • #56,326
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:06am Jan 14, 2009 4:06am
It was a A-B-C retracement from the low earlier today, that peaked in a contracting diagonal triangle, then fell sharply - as expected.

I expect it was wave A of a 5:3:5 zig-zag pattern, with the B wave drop, to be followed by one more leg where C = A as a target, or fibo 1.382 - 1.618 larger. That brings it up to 1.34 range, setting up a large 5 wave move down.

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  • #56,327
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:07am Jan 14, 2009 4:07am
Quoting Dazzer
Be careful hopping onto retracements down for the moment. We just bounced off todays open twice. I would wait for it to break before going short. In a very emotional market we have to wait for at least a bit of order before jumping on. Lower and lows and lower highs is what I'm looking for if I'm feeling bearish. Watch out for those whips and itchy trigger fingers, they'll kill you today.
Its definitely payday for the brokers though, whatever happens
good advice.. scalpers might be able to work with this PA with one key entries and exits.. and good broker.. but personally i put the pips i already got from last 3 trades and put them in the vault.. and forgot the combo
  • #56,328
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:11am Jan 14, 2009 4:11am
Barclays Says ECB Will Cut Rates as Low as 1.25%, Japanese Yen Will Rise The European Central Bank is likely to eventually cut interest rates as low as 1.25 percent as it seeks to stimulate the region’s faltering economy, according to Barclays Capital, a unit of Britain’s second-biggest lender.
Give me patience
  • #56,329
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:14am Jan 14, 2009 4:14am
Quoting Dazzer
News causes the move and the reaction determines the direction. Any bit of news today will send the market one way or the other.

NB 3rd time luck, will it break???

the news pretty much causes the direction as well. If the news wires reported a voting ecb member saying that further rate cuts would not help the situation and they would have to look for alternatives, eur$ is going only one way
  • #56,330
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:16am Jan 14, 2009 4:16am
Quoting Dansnali
good advice.. scalpers might be able to work with this PA with one key entries and exits.. and good broker.. but personally i put the pips i already got from last 3 trades and put them in the vault.. and forgot the combo
I can't work with this at the moment, too many long wicks=too much indecision. Stops need to be too tight and its not worth it right now. M2 is a mess, but M3 is looking slightly bullish. But if I take a position now, I'll be getting "gamblers rush". I've been lucky so far with this and that is sure to run out today. Patience, patience, patience.
  • #56,331
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:19am Jan 14, 2009 4:19am
Wow did the asians completely screw up what I had planned for today... They did the entire setup in their session....oh well.. guess I'm on break too. May scalp a bit.. but not holding anything very long.

Quoting Dazzer
I can't work with this at the moment, too many long wicks=too much indecision. Stops need to be too tight and its not worth it right now. M2 is a mess, but M3 is looking slightly bullish. But if I take a position now, I'll be getting "gamblers rush". I've been lucky so far with this and that is sure to run out today. Patience, patience, patience.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #56,332
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:20am Jan 14, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Dazzer
I can't work with this at the moment, too many long wicks=too much indecision. Stops need to be too tight and its not worth it right now. M2 is a mess, but M3 is looking slightly bullish. But if I take a position now, I'll be getting "gamblers rush". I've been lucky so far with this and that is sure to run out today. Patience, patience, patience.
I agree 100%.. easy to overtrade at the moment.. and in a pretty tight range..
  • #56,333
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:23am Jan 14, 2009 4:23am
Here is a count of the current correction, half way through a zig-zag.

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  • #56,334
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:26am Jan 14, 2009 4:26am
hi guy's is it save to entering short by now...?
The Ottelo way's find the mutual system to wins
  • #56,335
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:28am Jan 14, 2009 4:28am
Quoting Jnita
Thanks,

I saw the sell divergence on the 15min, but disregarded it, because it was only clear once the 08:30 gmt bar finished. When should I have entered sell here .... on the 08:45gmt open?

Do you use your ATR as a SL or TP?
It's everybody to his own but I just see divergence as an early indication of what may happen.

Breakouts of TL's or horizontal lines are usually good for a few pips and yes I set the TP at the ATR amount but always manually close on the first stall if the TP isn't reached. SL also initially at ATR but I move mine to BE +1 immediately after the breakout...just in case...I never worry about closing too soon...lol...You can take your breakout profit and run or look for a trend trade. Price most often retraces to the breakout level and then one can check if other indicators and MA's are indicating a trend. It's a good idea to check several time frames but I usually scalp on the 5 minute chart. I wouldn't trend trade unless there's a good slope on the 8 EMA and it's on the right side of the GANN. Then you just trade bounces off the 8 EMA (some prefer the 5 EMA) and close on stalls.

Safe trading...
  • #56,336
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:35am Jan 14, 2009 4:35am
Ok long 1.32384 for a 15 pipper. Will amend the stop to BE at 1.32518.
  • #56,337
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:36am Jan 14, 2009 4:36am
These are the times when singals are mixed for me.. be very careful and use good s/l placement.. dont' get greedy if you do take a trade.

I'm looking for specific price action only. No need to get caught the wrong way.

Quoting ottelo
hi guy's is it save to entering short by now...?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #56,338
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:36am Jan 14, 2009 4:36am
WOW. Amend the stop
  • #56,339
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:36am Jan 14, 2009 4:36am
Quoting ottelo
hi guy's is it save to entering short by now...?
its never safe..
  • #56,340
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:42am Jan 14, 2009 4:42am
Missed the TP as I was writing that last post
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