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  • #56,301
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:08am Jan 14, 2009 3:08am
Quoting walb99
Do you think London wants to have a worse entry than Toykio?
I mean the news was there, of course it's a nervous market, but we knew that already...
  • #56,302
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:10am Jan 14, 2009 3:10am
Quoting fammira
I mean the news was there, of course it's a nervous market, but we knew that already...
isn't time eu to drop right now?
  • #56,303
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:12am Jan 14, 2009 3:12am
Quoting fammira
100 bp is impossibile, no cut is even more impossibile

90% is 50bp

10% is 75bp

to say something is impossible is foolish
  • #56,304
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:12am Jan 14, 2009 3:12am
Quoting MscWorld
suddenly 100 pips drop. What've happened??
My best guess would be...

1. A lot of bears waiting to short.. myself included to to expected cuts
2. We hit daily R1 in EU
3. Hit daily S1 on U/CHF
  • #56,305
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:15am Jan 14, 2009 3:15am
Quoting NwFXenthsist
to say something is impossible is foolish
exactly.. its unlikely but anything is possible.. without an open mind in this biz and being ready for worste/best case scenerios then.. might as well keep the day job.. IMO
  • #56,306
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:15am Jan 14, 2009 3:15am
Quoting NwFXenthsist
to say something is impossible is foolish

if you like different terms more, I would say it's an extremely hard event
  • #56,307
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:20am Jan 14, 2009 3:20am
Quoting Dansnali
exactly.. its unlikely but anything is possible.. without an open mind in this biz and being ready for worste/best case scenerios then.. might as well keep the day job.. IMO

yeah i got my ass handed to me trying to trade a rate cut with pending orders back in Nov when the BOE cut 1.5 bps (i believe it was said that they would cut 75-100bps in the forecast, if i can remember correctly)...it was an ugly day. after that i learned my lesson with rate cuts, expect the unexpected especially these days.
  • #56,308
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:21am Jan 14, 2009 3:21am
Quoting fammira
if you like different terms more, I would say it's an extremely hard event
thats better.. I don't expect a 100 point cut by any means.. but gotta expect the unexpected as well.. The Fed cutting to zero wasn't really expected (by most) and made for a good oppotunity..
  • #56,309
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:21am Jan 14, 2009 3:21am
Quoting fammira
yes, impossible
Oh really?

Euro just dropped 100 pips in 30 minutes right now.

Mood moves market prices, not news.
  • #56,310
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:23am Jan 14, 2009 3:23am
Quoting FXoffshore
Oh really?

Euro just dropped 100 pips in 30 minutes right now.

Mood moves market prices, not news.
in this case it was news
  • #56,311
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:24am Jan 14, 2009 3:24am
Quoting Dansnali
thats better.. I don't expect a 100 point cut by any means.. but gotta expect the unexpected as well.. The Fed cutting to zero wasn't really expected (by most) and made for a good oppotunity..
I do agree, but we have to be realistic, you can do this in USA, Canada or England, not in Europe

Economic fundamentals are poor, but I don't see the blood around...
  • #56,312
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:25am Jan 14, 2009 3:25am
Quoting NwFXenthsist
yeah i got my ass handed to me trying to trade a rate cut with pending orders back in Nov when the BOE cut 1.5 bps (i believe it was said that they would cut 75-100bps in the forecast, if i can remember correctly)...it was an ugly day. after that i learned my lesson with rate cuts, expect the unexpected especially these days.
AMEN... and gotta love when the news is negative and we head straight up.. or vise versa.. I find any big news avent is either best to get in much before hand with profits locked.. or wait for move and retrace then hop on.. i think pain teaches hard lessons.. and guessing everyone experiences the unexpected sooner or later.. or the "impossible".. Anyways speaking of retracements we might be ready to head back down soon.. so gonna stop typing on here for now
  • #56,313
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:31am Jan 14, 2009 3:31am
Quoting Jnita
Any divergence expert,

This was a buy divergence, right?

How long does the signal normally last, here it seemed for only 3 x 4h bars.
Where should I have taken profit if I took this trade?

Interesting and yes it is a buy divergence but I see this is a 4 hour chart so it could be indicating an upward move sometime in the future. For intraday traders it's perhaps better to use shorter time frames and the 15 minute chart was showing downward (sell) divergence on the RSI (top indicator panel)

Divergence though is not always reliable and it's always best to trade breakouts or some other indicator that you feel comfortable with for confirmation.

Safe trading.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #56,314
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:35am Jan 14, 2009 3:35am
Quoting sccz97
in this case it was news
That is the deception with news, one can assign a market move to anything that just happened, often with no real connection.

Markets are moved by fear and greed, the collective positive or negative moods of buyers and sellers. It is often irrational.

What was the news that moved euro down 137 pips in 40 minutes?
  • #56,315
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:38am Jan 14, 2009 3:38am
retraced back to 38% fib from down move.. 1.3142 would complete the fib at 138%

i took profit at 1.32 though.. weekly s1 and 3200 psyc level seem to be fairly strong.. so far anyways
  • #56,316
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:41am Jan 14, 2009 3:41am
Quoting Navigator
Interesting and yes it is a buy divergence but I see this is a 4 hour chart so it could be indicating an upward move sometime in the future. For intraday traders it's perhaps better to use shorter time frames and the 15 minute chart was showing downward (sell) divergence on the RSI (top indicator panel)

Divergence though is not always reliable and it's always best to trade breakouts or some other indicator that you feel comfortable with for confirmation.

Safe trading.....

Thanks,

I saw the sell divergence on the 15min, but disregarded it, because it was only clear once the 08:30 gmt bar finished. When should I have entered sell here .... on the 08:45gmt open?

Do you use your ATR as a SL or TP?
  • #56,317
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:45am Jan 14, 2009 3:45am
Be careful hopping onto retracements down for the moment. We just bounced off todays open twice. I would wait for it to break before going short. In a very emotional market we have to wait for at least a bit of order before jumping on. Lower and lows and lower highs is what I'm looking for if I'm feeling bearish. Watch out for those whips and itchy trigger fingers, they'll kill you today.
Its definitely payday for the brokers though, whatever happens
  • #56,318
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:52am Jan 14, 2009 3:52am
Quoting FXoffshore
That is the deception with news, one can assign a market move to anything that just happened, often with no real connection.

Markets are moved by fear and greed, the collective positive or negative moods of buyers and sellers. It is often irrational.

What was the news that moved euro down 137 pips in 40 minutes?
look at my prev post which shows the bb headlines that hit the wires and note the time and then look at the charts.

In terms of whether you think news causes moves, each to their own. But being a day trader in an office full of ppl who make money specifically from trading headlines, I know what I'm talking about. I'll give you a perfect example, tomorrow's ecb conference, the release of the rate decision might cause the market to move some but it's the conference later that the mkt will be focusing on. WAtch the conference while keeping an eye on the price action and then tell me if news donest cause the majority of the moves
  • #56,319
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:52am Jan 14, 2009 3:52am
Oecd Economist says ECB has room to cut rates further In the coming months
  • #56,320
  • Jan 14, 2009 3:53am Jan 14, 2009 3:53am
nervous movements on a nervous market...
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