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  • #1,241
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:50am Mar 16, 2007 3:50am
Quoting PipVip
I'm wondering who the heck is pushing up the Euro right now. There are a bunch of conspiracy nuts talking on other boards who think the US will attack Iran on the new moon March 18th. Idiots.
The attack on Iran, in case it ever happen, is very likely to be positive for the buck.
  • #1,242
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:57am Mar 16, 2007 3:57am
only short term,...after they got burned not so likely,...its todays news that drives market, especially gold...
its just money
  • #1,243
  • Edited 4:26am Mar 16, 2007 4:04am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting de123
only short term,...after they got burned not so likely,...its todays news that drives market, especially gold...
don't think so... the market recently demonstrates a typical reversal behavior... downside for the buck is limited by a few hundred pips, while on the upside it points toward the parity with the euro in a few years from now... whether there will be an attack or not, the market will do what it is supposed to...
  • #1,244
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:00am Mar 16, 2007 8:00am
So here I am, dazed and confused thinking:
A large rally in the early morning with no news at all,
Unexplained volume always pushing it up to 1.330,
and no movement on the news(thats the only thing that was logical)
and then I realize from my stock day trading days...
This is the 3rd Friday of the month... Hmmmm
Do they have future contracts on Currencies? (Im only familiar with commodity contracts)

Yep.... Future contracts on currencies exist AND also expire the 3rd friday of the month.

Now I make a mental note to myself... on the 3rd friday, expect the Forex to move in mysterious ways...
  • #1,245
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:10am Mar 16, 2007 8:10am
what now for the Euro?

buy on the dips for a test of 13350 and higher levels? Or short on a retracement to 13220-50's????

I got stopped out of my shorts of 133even at 13330..and now I'm sitting here twiddling my thumbs trying to figure out what is next...somehow I don't think technicals and fundamentals is going help much in this scenario.
  • #1,246
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:19am Mar 16, 2007 8:19am
Just bought at 1.3317 and I'm betting the farm these B*stards are gonna push it back up to the strike price of 1.330 again.. lets see.
  • #1,247
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:33am Mar 16, 2007 8:33am
OK now watch for a surge of volume come out of no where and rescue the price as it rises....
  • #1,248
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:35am Mar 16, 2007 8:35am
Quoting PipVip
So here I am, dazed and confused thinking:
A large rally in the early morning with no news at all,
Unexplained volume always pushing it up to 1.330,
and no movement on the news(thats the only thing that was logical)
and then I realize from my stock day trading days...
This is the 3rd Friday of the month... Hmmmm
Do they have future contracts on Currencies? (Im only familiar with commodity contracts)

Yep.... Future contracts on currencies exist AND also expire the 3rd friday of the month.

Now I make a mental note to myself... on the 3rd friday, expect the Forex to move in mysterious ways...
ye ole "Triple Witching"
It should be noted though that {most} Currency Futures are not available for Every Month but March is indeed one of them.
Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec.
  • #1,249
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:48am Mar 16, 2007 8:48am
Whalaaa... Back up to 1.330 and then comes to a nice stop.
So here's what I'm thinking:
1) I am now one of the official conspiracy nuts... and the price is manipulated today.
2) *IF* that's true, those pushing the euro around like a drunken sailor must have some *very* deep pockets.
3) I assume Monday the market forces will be back to normal and I'm thinking the euro will retreat back to the support of around 3.185 or near it.

Thanks for the tip on "not all months", Bemac.
  • #1,250
  • Mar 16, 2007 9:00am Mar 16, 2007 9:00am
You know, just as an after thought, wouldn't it be my luck if the USA decides to attack Iran in the darkness of the New Moon on March 18th Sunday before Monday comes, and then make a mockery of my retracement prediction?

*Sigh*.... The world is so complicated these days.
  • #1,251
  • Mar 16, 2007 9:34am Mar 16, 2007 9:34am
attack on Iran on the 18th? I don't think so. Well let's say I don't think the US would be the one attacking if something was to happen, maybe Israel would, but then again what do I know.

I think and I hope that Euro is done, well temporarily done, imo it has to retrace before breaking any new major levels but again what do I know.

I'm just going to make sure I'm out of the markets for the weekend, not going to take any chances in case logic, reason and common sense is thrown out of the window and something does happen on the geopolitical arena.
  • #1,252
  • Mar 16, 2007 9:57am Mar 16, 2007 9:57am
Normally it is difficult to stay long above the R3. Most of the time it pulls back at least to below the R3
  • #1,253
  • Mar 16, 2007 10:14am Mar 16, 2007 10:14am
Tripple witching may be part of the reason for the broad-based dollar sell off. But that's just the problem. The sell off was clear dollar weakness, have a look at Dow theory and you'll see that this move was confirmed across the board. What's even more damming is that strong volumes are being reported. I remember reading that in Market Wizards Bruce Kovner said that a large move that happens for no apparent reason is a very strong signal. The real question is what are market players focusing on for this move to have occured? What is actually going on here?
  • #1,254
  • Mar 17, 2007 10:15am Mar 17, 2007 10:15am
My plan for Monday is to wait for retrace and enter long see how it works.
  • #1,255
  • Mar 17, 2007 10:23am Mar 17, 2007 10:23am
Quoting luqmanz
My plan for Monday is to wait for retrace and enter long see how it works.
I'm for a retrace b/c I'm not afraid to say I made a huge blunder.

I haven't done this in awhile especially since I started trading for a living:

I tried to outsmart this bull trend!

So, I'm stuck in a short Euro trade with all the fun (pain) carrying over the weekend with my wife not knowing that a good chunk of my acct. is in the red.

At least it's warm and sunny today here in the Rockies.
  • #1,256
  • Mar 17, 2007 12:48pm Mar 17, 2007 12:48pm
ktrade,

Man my heart is realy going out for you. I have been there.

I will short this pair on sunday open. Because the price is up and the RSI is not.

Some say "The sky is the limit". I say "I own the sky".
  • #1,257
  • Mar 17, 2007 1:38pm Mar 17, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting ktrade
I'm for a retrace b/c I'm not afraid to say I made a huge blunder.

I haven't done this in awhile especially since I started trading for a living:

I tried to outsmart this bull trend!

So, I'm stuck in a short Euro trade with all the fun (pain) carrying over the weekend with my wife not knowing that a good chunk of my acct. is in the red.

At least it's warm and sunny today here in the Rockies.
My heart goes out to you as well mate......

All I can say is the dollar cant go on for ever.......
  • #1,258
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:31am Mar 18, 2007 7:31am
It looks like EUR/USD might target 1.3450 straightaway now. We'll see again after it reaches there. For now the impulse wave up from 1.3073 hasn't finished yet. Just my opinion.
Tra-X
  • #1,259
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:01pm Mar 21, 2007 2:01pm
Looks like it's still on track to 1.3450 target. Let's see again. Might retrace for a while first tho.
Tra-X
  • #1,260
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:07pm Mar 21, 2007 2:07pm
It has finished the 5th wave if not 9. Will retrace untill it meet good support and rally again on FED.
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