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  • #56,221
  • Edited 9:31pm Jan 13, 2009 9:29pm | Edited 9:31pm
Quoting ak4x
Chicky, he's got a point there, plus R1 is at 3321 and it's good horizontal resistance as well, and the pysch number. So any break above the figure will almost certainly get to the 20 at least if fore no other reason to clear the stops between there and the figure.

that's my usual theory anyway at these levels and when the PA is all hinky and I'm confident it's headed down at some point but does this kind of thing first.
Watch out! Your analysis seems right. My 5M chart is showing weakning up trend.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #56,222
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:39pm Jan 13, 2009 9:39pm
The nice thing about this kind of movment is with a falling channel even being broken on h1, in a downtrend, the more time it takes to move up .. the more the channel falls away below it.... so when the short does come... it has a good ways to fall
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #56,223
  • Edited 9:39pm Jan 13, 2009 9:39pm | Edited 9:39pm
Feeling a little better but that grey 21sma and lower bb HAVE to break and soon or I'm going to be sorry i think.... unless it a bounce at this point would not look good to me unless it's to make one more run at M3.

With this pivot tho getting hit, and coming up from the DP in a bearish environment, that would be a wee bit unusual, as normally it would retreat with enthusiasm back to DP and then M2 would be my first target with lower ones to follow.

This is all a bit odd tho and I don't feel in synch yet.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #56,224
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:39pm Jan 13, 2009 9:39pm
Sell
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  • #56,225
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:40pm Jan 13, 2009 9:40pm
Quoting Chicky
Watch out! Your analysis seems right. My 5M chart is showing weakning up trend.

Remember something..we may be seeing a rally on news of poor USA sales for december..but that information is being factored in already. We new that.

The story on ECB rate cut is coming around the corner...

We are seeing news reports causing this volatile swing ...

What we have are as an earlier trader stated..we are seeing extreme range movement for most any news or strong Resistence or Support barriers.

im looking at the hourly and hoping to maintain a bearish direction...and we do have a reason for such. but then...I dont have any control of events.
  • #56,226
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:41pm Jan 13, 2009 9:41pm
Quoting SunTrader
Lets try this again, this time closer look with more highlights - how I am seeing 1.3312 as resistance:
Perfect. Thanks SunTrader
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #56,227
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:41pm Jan 13, 2009 9:41pm
Quoting DireXiv
The nice thing about this kind of movment is with a falling channel even being broken on h1, in a downtrend, the more time it takes to move up .. the more the channel falls away below it.... so when the short does come... it has a good ways to fall
yah i notice that
  • #56,228
  • Edited 9:47pm Jan 13, 2009 9:45pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting JammerJams
Remember something..we may be seeing a rally on news of poor USA sales for december..but that information is being factored in already. We new that.

The story on ECB rate cut is coming around the corner...

We are seeing news reports causing this volatile swing ...

What we have are as an earlier trader stated..we are seeing extreme range movement for most any news or strong Resistence or Support barriers.

im looking at the hourly and hoping to maintain a bearish direction...and we do have a reason for such. but then...I dont have any control...
I share the same views. US bad news already built-in, ECB rate cut generates movement that is partly off set by residual impact of December sale figures ...... maybe leading to a range,..... downward daily trend is likely resultant direction...... but who knows! one newer news and everything off balances once again.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #56,229
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:51pm Jan 13, 2009 9:51pm
If I get a 3m close below the QP at 3254, I'll be mo betta.

add: in fact gy and ej 30m are looking more bearish now as well, they both hit significant ma's and seem to be retreating.
FUBAR...
  • #56,230
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:58pm Jan 13, 2009 9:58pm
yep.. i was showing a 3-4 point h1 t/l on e/j being pierced.... may have been the asian head fake. I had an m15 engulf to short entry at .76.. but didnt' take it... apparently i should have
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #56,231
  • Edited 10:04pm Jan 13, 2009 10:00pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting wwwin
Sell
Good call. Have you been reading Stewartr's thread? or maybe he is reading yours.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #56,232
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:05pm Jan 13, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting ak4x
sure... but i really don't think i did the whole story justice tho... maybe rx money could add something more useful about how that earnings thing worked. it sure was part of my learning curve tho.

stocks schmocks up to that point for me. now tho it's different, instead of earnings reports it's loss reports.
As I recall that GE earnings trade was in the spring/April and was one of the significant first signs of unexpected corporate earnings losses. The next quarter I was all set to go with another big trade with GE but nothing happened with the negative results. The only conclusion is now there is so much bad news already in the markets that it will take highly unusual circumstances to move the market based on earnings announcements or world events.
Look at the price of oil today with the battle going on in Israel or the Somali pirates. A year ago the price of oil would have skyrocketed taking the markets with it. Today it nothing but a blip on the currency screen along with
trillion dollar deficits, 0 interest rates, and billion dollar corporate losses.

And when is this so called huge dollar devaluation going to start? And against which currency? The "experts" that correctly predicted the global meltdown
are also calling for massive inflation and dollar weakness. If and when the dollar begins to fall it will be the trade of the year much like shorting G/J in early 2007.
The strongest currencies in recessions/economic downturns are the YEN and Swiss Franc. I have been shorting all Yen crosses for over a year and will continue but the big question is still whether or not the massive spending will catch up to the dollar and when will US confidence in the gov.start to wane.
History is written by the victors.
  • #56,233
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:10pm Jan 13, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting Money-RX
As I recall that GE earnings trade...
excellent... thanks for that.
FUBAR...
  • #56,234
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:15pm Jan 13, 2009 10:15pm
Quoting SunTrader
Lets try this again, this time closer look with more highlights - how I am seeing 1.3312 as resistance:
You are spot on! I posted somewhere much earlier with a yellow line this spot as S/R. It now is good resistance, if it ever makes it back there. I figure the Asian session will test it before the Euro and London session push it down.

I now have to redraw my chart cause my dumba** somehow hit the wrong "x" and I am now in the twilight zone.
We should at least see .3140 by NY opening in mho based on channel and retest of low. The upper TL is lining up with my 60lwma to try to contain the bull on the 15m.

We shall see
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  • #56,235
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:15pm Jan 13, 2009 10:15pm
Quoting Chicky
Good call. Have you been reading Stewartr's thread? or maybe he is reading yours.
Let's not count our chickens before they hatch. No, I have not read any thread for the call
  • #56,236
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:15pm Jan 13, 2009 10:15pm
A Cup? that would work for me... looks almost perfect on m15
  • #56,237
  • Edited 10:24pm Jan 13, 2009 10:18pm | Edited 10:24pm
Quoting Money-RX
As I recall that GE earnings trade was in the spring/April ........And when is this so called huge dollar devaluation going to start? And against which currency? The "experts" that correctly predicted the global meltdown
are also calling for massive inflation and dollar weakness. If and when the dollar begins to fall it will be the trade of the year much like shorting G/J in early 2007. .....start to wane.
Very true. Just one question I am trying to find an answer for last several weeks, probably you may help me on this one. When economic condition of a country is not very good, it weakens its currency. Why it is vice versa in USA's case? Is it because US $ is in demand by big businesses to settle their commitments and US$ gets difficult to earn because of falling demand by the US consumers? If this is the situation, what happens after these commitments are met and some other currency becomes global currency? US $ drops like stone!

I ask this question with my limited knowledge of economics, so please forgive me if my question is a silly one.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #56,238
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:23pm Jan 13, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting Chicky
Very true. Just one question I am trying to find an answer for last several weeks, probably you may help me on this one. When economic condition of a country is not very good, it weekens its currency. Why it is vice versa in USA's case? Is it because US $ in demand by big businesses to settle their commitments and US$ gets difficult to earn because of falling demand by the US consumers? If this is the situation, what happens after these commitments are met and some other currency becomes global currency? US $ drops like stone!

I ask this question...
That is why Amero is coming... coming to kill us... me not quite happy with that...
  • #56,239
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:28pm Jan 13, 2009 10:28pm
News:

EUR/USD (1.3280)
European & US sessions forecast levels: 1.3040/1.3410
Trend Sessions: European: Neutral/Downward
US: Neutral/Downward
Market Focus: 8:30 AM Trade Balance, 2:00 PM Treasury Budget.
Daily Strategy: The dollar continues gain against the euro due too expecting interest rates cut in the Euro Zone. The European Central Bank will cut the key interest rates at least with 50 bps to 100 bps. Due too the deeper of the recession in the Euro Zone, ECB will cut more than 50 bps. The trading strategy today is opening short positions. The dollar may gain to the levels of 1.30 even to break below this week.
Forex Forecast by FS Team
  • #56,240
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:31pm Jan 13, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting Radik
That is why Amero is coming... coming to kill us... me not quite happy with that...
Don't worry, commodities and stocks will always be there to bet on.
The Thief of Wall Street
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