On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
- #3,981
- Jan 11, 2009 4:40pm Jan 11, 2009 4:40pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts
- #3,982
- Jan 12, 2009 12:11am Jan 12, 2009 12:11am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts
peaches , what is your view about daily CABBLE?
The 1,49-1.50 area is a kind of good support I think, but the 138.2 monthly fibo level at 1.535 is also a tough resistance. If price managed to go above
1.535, I see next resistance at 1.585.
- #3,985
- Jan 12, 2009 12:13pm Jan 12, 2009 12:13pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Nov 2007 | 1,079 Posts
Our bearish harami indeed became a three inside down (pending today's final close). In my view, this reconfirmed bearish sentiment could help confidence in setting a target of 1.44/43, (before a longer term bull move) if support levels continue to fail.
Any thoughts guys?
Rob
EDIT: I've just seen Hussin's post below "GBPUSD------down---------------------1.46------1.43" which of course gives rise to even more confidence
Any thoughts guys?
Rob
EDIT: I've just seen Hussin's post below "GBPUSD------down---------------------1.46------1.43" which of course gives rise to even more confidence
Silverheat has already posted but I wanted to add my view which agrees with the bearish sentiment.
Will the bearish Harami be proven correct by developing into a three inside down?
Steve Nison wrote; the harami pattern is a small real body which is contained within a prior relatively long real body. "Harami" is an old Japanese word for "pregnant." The harami formation is comparable to the Western inside day. An inside day occurs when the highs and lows are within the prior period's range. The harami pattern predicts......
- #3,986
- Jan 12, 2009 3:20pm Jan 12, 2009 3:20pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts
This is fear. Pure fear all over the market.
This means yen bullish (confirmed by yen index and tnx), dollar bullish (how crazy, desaster area in the US and a bulish dollar
, and a big suprise: a bullish swiss franc.
This means yen bullish (confirmed by yen index and tnx), dollar bullish (how crazy, desaster area in the US and a bulish dollar
, and a big suprise: a bullish swiss franc.
- #3,987
- Jan 12, 2009 3:25pm Jan 12, 2009 3:25pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts
a bearish engulfing candle at the end of an uptrend is a bearish engulfing candle...
sorry for my bad forecast for GBP/CHF.
Weekly target:
1.46
1,32
sorry for my bad forecast for GBP/CHF.
Weekly target:
1.46
1,32
- #3,989
- Jan 12, 2009 3:39pm Jan 12, 2009 3:39pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts
the driver for eur/gbp is not the euro, it is the pound on my charts:
daily: bullish engulfing
weekly: piercing line ???
monthly: "uncharted area"
daily: bullish engulfing
weekly: piercing line ???
monthly: "uncharted area"
- #3,994
- Jan 12, 2009 7:14pm Jan 12, 2009 7:14pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: KISS=Keep it simple and Stupid | 131 Posts
I see a confirmed weekly shooting star on UJ, but I donīt see realistic targets, because fibo-extension levels are below 80.
BOJ never would allow this bullish yen, because this would
cause some serious economic problems (trading products with the US).
They can intervent when UJ to 85 so risk for short althought we can see the main down trend for UJ
- #3,995
- Jan 13, 2009 6:20am Jan 13, 2009 6:20am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts
hey peaches. gopher looks bearish to me too. bearish hidden divergence off the 50 ema. plus a two day pinbar.
- #3,996
- Jan 13, 2009 6:21am Jan 13, 2009 6:21am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts
Yes,BOJ and China don't like JPY and Yuan strong.
They can intervent when UJ to 85 so risk for short althought we can see the main down trend for UJ
- #3,997
- Jan 13, 2009 11:30am Jan 13, 2009 11:30am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts
hi hussin,
thank you for your useful posts.
Can I ask you some more details on your view on EUR/GBP?
Yesterday I have tried to go short on the trendline (0,8905) and it did not look like a clever move for the moment
I am now afraid that a ECB rate cut could push the cable towards the parity again
maybe hussin might say something later about this pair. If I am allowed to give my point of view: Based on the weekly charts some may definetly analyses a further drop, but a save short trade with this, would have waited for a daily close below the trendline.
Based on the daily candles, there was a bullish move a must (see chart).
Last rate cuts from the BOE and FED has been more then traders expected, so there might be a surprise-cut from the EZB on thursday. The question is not, if the eur is bulish or bearish. It is the relationship of the eur against the pound, which one is more bearish imho.
I think nobody can forecast the effect the rate cut on thursday. But watch
analyses from Mr. chen as second or third opinion:
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=145011
These are very special times, keep in mind that the market can stay irrational longer than the traders can stay solvent.
But wait for further analyses after daily close in a few hours.
- #4,000
- Jan 13, 2009 2:16pm Jan 13, 2009 2:16pm
- Joined May 2008 | Status: dynamic | 2,412 Posts
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack