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  • #55,161
  • Edited 7:05pm Jan 8, 2009 6:54pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting miketodd
Glad to see back on this thread....
I don't have anywhere else to sleep and can't hold a real job, so it's not like I have a lot of options.

ADDED: Two 20m candles opened and closed below the DP and it's bending the lower BB instead of bursting thru it... I call that seriously busted. If it bounces at M2, then probably more of the same and maybe even a quickie back upstairs ((see the bottom add)), but I'd like to see it hang a'rd M2 or continue below thru asia.

That suits my perception of the universe just right. ((short from 3730, locked at +5))

ADDED EVEN MORE: Mind your quarter pivots in this market, this slow PA is where they shine.. nearest one is at 3647 and 3724 between the Central and M3.
FUBAR...
  • #55,162
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:04pm Jan 8, 2009 7:04pm
waking up today 10am and scooping up 50pips, im gonna sit on this till tonight. maybe one more trade. hehe
happy pippin' and safe pippin.

pippippip
  • #55,163
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:06pm Jan 8, 2009 7:06pm
guys what do u think on the news Non-Farm Employment Change ? will EU have a strong bearish? any opinion?
  • #55,164
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:11pm Jan 8, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting DireXiv
just closed below the m15 50 ema
and then stalled to the pip on the 15m 89sma. Crap.

Should it get below that however, i have nothing of consequence ((besides the QP I mentioned on previous post)) until the 15m 200sma at 3620ish which is EU Psych level plus a biggie MA.

Like you said, tough sleddin below.
FUBAR...
  • #55,165
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:24pm Jan 8, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting gdep
guys what do u think on the news Non-Farm Employment Change ? will EU have a strong bearish? any opinion?
Ya, i was a bit curious of what "non farm" was. what is that?


Quoting ak4x
and then stalled to the pip on the 15m 89sma. Crap.

Should it get below that however, i have nothing of consequence ((besides the QP I mentioned on previous post)) until the 15m 200sma at 3620ish which is EU Psych level plus a biggie MA.

Like you said, tough sleddin below.
What makes you think it will go near that support of 20?
  • #55,166
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:30pm Jan 8, 2009 7:30pm
[quote=PipPipPip;2458078]what is that?


look at the calendar.. theres a news on non-farm employment change.. so will EU be bearish?
  • #55,167
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:38pm Jan 8, 2009 7:38pm
sorryy mr PipPipPip i still learning on the EU movements bcoz m still a newbie
  • #55,168
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:44pm Jan 8, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting gdep

look at the calendar.. theres a news on non-farm employment change.. so will EU be bearish?

NFP is very tricky news to trade. by far the most volatile of all the US based reports.

my only suggestion is to stay away from it unless you already have an open position heading into it that is in GOOD profits. and depending on the expected release set a stop to protect your current profits and a limit to capitalize on a move in your favor which would then be a nice end to an already good trade.

Do not sit there with your finger on the trigger and try to place a trade as soon as it is released. you will get burned every time.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #55,169
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:51pm Jan 8, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting PipPipPip
Ya, i was a bit curious of what "non farm" was. what is that?
Well it used to be the economic report that moved the planet and was the making or the breaking of many a trader who was silly enough to trade thru it w/o seriously having their hooey together.

Nowadays it's not been much more than a black box traded blip as everyone that isn''t in a coma knows the news is either bad, very bad, or worse than bad, all of which are priced in way ahead of time, hence no mucho movement.

On the other hand last month startled a few people and maybe blew up a few black boxes in the process as it re-defined "worse than bad". So while it's not the omnipotent force behind the cosmos it used to be, it can still make cautious traders whisper and tremble.

You might want to budget some time boning up on those kinds of things if you intend to seriously stalk pips. There are dangerous critters out there beyond the fence.

Quoting PipPipPip
What makes you think it will go near that support of 20?
I didn''t say it would, I said "should it get there..."

As to what would cause that to happen, that would be the almost confirmed turn downward on my 20m thru 2hr charts... 10 more minutes to the close of my 2hr candle at 8pm CST and I will reevaluate, but so far so good.
FUBAR...
  • #55,170
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:53pm Jan 8, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting Monk
NFP is very tricky...

Do not sit there with your finger on the trigger and try to place a trade as soon as it is released. you will get burned every time.
Amen.
FUBAR...
  • #55,171
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:07pm Jan 8, 2009 8:07pm
haha. its just hanging on to 60. where do you guys this is going before a pull back?
  • #55,172
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:08pm Jan 8, 2009 8:08pm
Quoting ak4x
Well it used to be the economic report that moved the planet and was the making or the breaking of many a trader who was silly enough to trade thru it w/o seriously having their hooey together.

Nowadays it's not been much more than a black box traded blip as everyone that isn''t in a coma knows the news is either bad, very bad, or worse than bad, all of which are priced in way ahead of time, hence no mucho movement.

On the other hand last month startled a few people and maybe blew up a few black boxes in the process as it re-defined "worse...
very well said.....

few years ago you got one shot a month to see 100 pip move in a day and it was called NFP
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #55,173
  • Edited 8:17pm Jan 8, 2009 8:09pm | Edited 8:17pm
EU Weekly chart for anybody wondering why this 3660 level is so hard...

That Green dotted line has been right there exactly at 3660 on my chart for a long time, along with the Pink one at 2500.

They are weekly S/R levels ((zones actually about 20-50 pips wide)) that go back to when price was pushing up thru them the first time. I find it helpful to go back and look at that sort of thing and see how price did what it did then, and why it might do it again when those levels get revisited.

Even the lack of respect at certain key prices can be revealing...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #55,174
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:21pm Jan 8, 2009 8:21pm
Quoting ak4x
EU Weekly chart for anybody wondering why this 3660 level is so hard...

That Green dotted line has been right there exactly at 3660 on my chart for a long time, along with the Pink one at 2500.

They are weekly S/R levels ((zones actually about 20-50 pips wide)) that go back to when price was pushing up thru them the first time. I find it helpful to go back and look at that sort of thing and see how price did what it did then, and why it might do it again when those levels get revisited.

Even the lack of respect at certain key prices can be...
GREAT chart. As day traders, we tend to look at a higher time frame as being the 4 hr or maybe the daily. the big boys look at the weekly and it just confuses us, for the most part, wondering why a certain point is important... Way to bring reality to the day trading world!
BS
  • #55,175
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:29pm Jan 8, 2009 8:29pm
and here comes the pullback to 3690
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #55,176
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:31pm Jan 8, 2009 8:31pm
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  • #55,177
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:50pm Jan 8, 2009 8:50pm
Here''s a 20m with swing fib plotted on left and pivots on right. My trading day starts at 5pm EST and so the colored zones represent that. The swing high and low from yesterday are the anchors for the fib.

One thing to note is the convergence of the 62% level with the green Central pivot line ((price at the daily open at 5pm)). I would normally consider that to be strong resistance.

The other thing is the small 10 pip difference between the DP and the 50% level. That alone is a potent combo and when paired with the weekly S/R level at 3660ish, this zone is like a huge magnet. When price clearly breaks away from it whatever direction it goes, there's the possibility of a good move. Which is why you can afford to wait and let the market confirm the move first, unless you're already in a trade.

Price simply moving away for a bit does not a break make, and this is where a lot of traders are going to donate their hard earned pips back to the borker.

What confounds all of this tho is the unknown but anticipated factor of the pre-positiong before NFP. Don't mistake people closing positions before the release for "market direction". And I'm not talking about us pipsqueak retail crumb snatchers either.

Off to other things for awhile here.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #55,178
  • Jan 8, 2009 9:05pm Jan 8, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting ak4x
Here''s a 20m with swing fib plotted on left and pivots on right. My trading day starts at 5pm EST and so the colored zones represent that. The swing high and low from yesterday are the anchors for the fib.

One thing to note is the convergence of the 62% level with the green Central pivot line ((price at the daily open at 5pm)). I would normally consider that to be strong resistance.

The other thing is the small 10 pip difference between the DP and the 50% level. That alone is a potent combo and when paired with the weekly S/R level at 3660ish,...
Is the fib drawn with 0 level at low and 100 high in move that moves up?

I always thought that it was inverse to that, so retrace of consolidation that you call the 62% should actually be 38% of retrace from move from low to high.

At least that's what I been thunking for awhile.

Thanks ahead for the clarifcation!

BTW- thanks for your contributions, and my shack is big but yours has wheels and an engine, unless you took the engine out! Can I have the wheels to paint white and plant flowers in? Jay said that is all I'm missing!
  • #55,179
  • Jan 8, 2009 9:13pm Jan 8, 2009 9:13pm
the fact we broke 60/55 and did not have a sudden drop to me convinces support to the upside for a little longer.

currently long from 3665 with a tight stop of 3650 - but thinking of closing

yawn
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #55,180
  • Jan 8, 2009 9:31pm Jan 8, 2009 9:31pm
Quoting Monk
the fact we broke 60/55 and did not have a sudden drop to me convinces support to the upside for a little longer.

currently long from 3665 with a tight stop of 3650 - but thinking of closing

yawn
Don't forget the 1.3635 level, another stone on the road the the southpol.

It's also 61.8 FIB

U/C also touched in this moment 61.8 level, the moment of the truth
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