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Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx

  • #1,341
  • Jan 6, 2009 2:40am Jan 6, 2009 2:40am
Quote
TRADE ALERT!

Confirmation candle in the making. If it is a bullish one then we can look for entry.

Thanks

Nice call james,

Confluence of Reasons
1. Price is making Higher high
2. change in polarity
3. Bullish divergence
4. 61.8 fib retracement


My entry would have been above the resistance line to play safe but i wont take this trade as a major important GBP news will come out 30mins after entry which void this A+ setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,342
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:55am Jan 6, 2009 3:55am
See what i mean, the GBP/USD, it went up but the draw down was very huge 70pips!


Is there anyway to ensure a safer entry? Coz I dun feel safe with such a large drawdown.
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  • #1,343
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:11am Jan 6, 2009 4:11am
Going long?

I would be interested to know on what basis the GBPUSD daily trend is perceived to be up.

I'm sure everyone has their own method of determining daily trend. Mine, based on HH/HL - LL/LH, has the trend as down, still.

What do others use?
All flesh is as grass
  • #1,344
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:16am Jan 6, 2009 4:16am
Quote
See what i mean, the GBP/USD, it went up but the draw down was very huge 70pips!


Is there anyway to ensure a safer entry? Coz I dun feel safe with such a large drawdown

Here are my recommendations

1. dont trade volatile pairs
2. set ur trade, place stop accordingly and go away from the PC
3. U will alwayz get draw down
  • #1,345
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:43am Jan 6, 2009 4:43am
This pair can go either way and the daily is down. News 2 differnt times at 2 and 4.
  • #1,346
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:00am Jan 6, 2009 5:00am
Actually, looking at the GBPUSD daily chart, it's a bit ambiguous, as there's been a LL but not a LH. To have a LH would require another LL.

So, on this basis, there probably isn't a definite 'trend' at the moment, though I would say, eyeballing the chart, it's down rather than up.

It would be nice to have totally objective trend determinator that was a bit more responsive than HH/HL - LL/LH.

Maybe a Demark trendline - which would show an uptrend of sorts already in place.
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All flesh is as grass
  • #1,347
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:41am Jan 6, 2009 5:41am
Quoting dod
Actually, looking at the GBPUSD daily chart, it's a bit ambiguous, as there's been a LL but not a LH. To have a LH would require another LL.

So, on this basis, there probably isn't a definite 'trend' at the moment, though I would say, eyeballing the chart, it's down rather than up.

It would be nice to have totally objective trend determinator that was a bit more responsive than HH/HL - LL/LH.

Maybe a Demark trendline - which would show an uptrend of sorts already in place.
I think that would be very difficult. Market conditions are always changing and alot of discretion is required to recognize trends. In fact, this is one of the most important factors to trade this method successfully IMO.

This pair should be recognized as a downtrend since price has been falling.
  • #1,348
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:57am Jan 6, 2009 5:57am
Yes, deciding the trend is discretional; and discretion is based on our perception of the facts, which will be as individual as we are; but I find it helps to have something unequivocal to 'hang my hat on'.

Maybe, if the trend isn't immediately obvious, it is best to simply avoid that pair, and look at others where the trend is clearer.
All flesh is as grass
  • #1,349
  • Jan 6, 2009 7:32am Jan 6, 2009 7:32am
Quoting dod
Yes, deciding the trend is discretional; and discretion is based on our perception of the facts, which will be as individual as we are; but I find it helps to have something unequivocal to 'hang my hat on'.

Maybe, if the trend isn't immediately obvious, it is best to simply avoid that pair, and look at others where the trend is clearer.
very true Dod- If its not clear, stay out

But i 'll say Gu right now is not so definitive. On the daily tf, Cf gives a possible uptrend in the making, though this has failed to move well enough, its gradually making HL's which gives more credence to to the up move which i see as a retrace of the impulse wave (since its majorly in an uptrend).

On the lower tf its obvious now that GU is ranging.

I'll conclude this pair as presently stalked in its momentary retracement of the down trend, and my action will be to trade lower tf with care, while i wait for the resumption of a clear trend on the daily.

Just my 2 cents.
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #1,350
  • Jan 6, 2009 7:57am Jan 6, 2009 7:57am
Isn't the original intent of the Daz sytem to trade in the direction of the major trend? If so, eyeing the daily chart would keep me from taking a long in the GBP. Any thoughts?
  • #1,351
  • Jan 6, 2009 8:27am Jan 6, 2009 8:27am
Quoting MightyMouse
Isn't the original intent of the Daz sytem to trade in the direction of the major trend? If so, eyeing the daily chart would keep me from taking a long in the GBP. Any thoughts?
Daz stated tht we should look for set ups in the 'direction' of the bigger trend.

How u interprete the above statement matters.(this is where discretion comes in and why some find it difficult to trade this method i think)---

direction of the bigger trend implies the present direction and not necessarily the major trend.
What i'm trying to say is this if the major trend (impulse wave) on the daily is down (as in GU) but presently there's a clear retracement of the wave going on, i would prefer to trade lower tf in the direction of the daily retracement or better still stay out of the pair and wait for it to resume the direction of the impulse wave on the daily.

just my own 2 cents opinion.
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #1,352
  • Jan 6, 2009 9:41am Jan 6, 2009 9:41am
Quoting D liberators
Daz stated tht we should look for set ups in the 'direction' of the bigger trend.

How u interprete the above statement matters.(this is where discretion comes in and why some find it difficult to trade this method i think)---

direction of the bigger trend implies the present direction and not necessarily the major trend.
What i'm trying to say is this if the major trend (impulse wave) on the daily is down (as in GU) but presently there's a clear retracement of the wave going on, i would prefer to trade lower tf in the direction of the daily...
You hit the nail right on the wall my friend. The Cable setup did not give a signal because the confirmation candle at A was too bearish. The next candle however formed another setup, but the confirmation candle, B spiked.
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Like D liberators pointed out, I perceive the pair as retracing after a big move down and hence, would gladly take a long setup provided it moves in this upward channel. Then again, a short signal can be taken based on the fact that the actual daily trend is still down (and price still consolidating in a channel). There was a short signal, but the R:R was too low for me.
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  • #1,353
  • Jan 6, 2009 12:11pm Jan 6, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting Dazfx
Well, if you look on the hourly chart, you will typically get atleast one setup from each currency on an intraday basis. If you go onto a smaller timeframe, you will be surprised at how many setups you will find. But I restrict myself to trading 6 currency pairs, so I get about 10-15 trades per week.

I only use 5MA for this system. The others are there for another system I use.

Thanks
I find I have trouble monitoring more than 1 currency pair/charts. maybe b/c I mainly trade 5min. do you have advice how you monitor multiple intraday charts?
  • #1,354
  • Jan 6, 2009 12:32pm Jan 6, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting leontancfa
I find I have trouble monitoring more than 1 currency pair/charts. maybe b/c I mainly trade 5min. do you have advice how you monitor multiple intraday charts?
On MetaTrader4, you can view multiple windows at a time. You can also have multiple screens.
  • #1,355
  • Jan 6, 2009 1:38pm Jan 6, 2009 1:38pm
Good day all

there are possible trades forming on

UJ and EU, 1hr tf

waiting for stoch and confirmation candle
These are hi probability trades
  • #1,356
  • Jan 6, 2009 2:00pm Jan 6, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting Naijafx
Good day all

there are possible trades forming on

UJ and EU, 1hr tf

waiting for stoch and confirmation candle
These are hi probability trades
Yes, EU I like very much.

Just curious NaijaFx, where have you pulled the fibs from? I will show you what I see.

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Edit: Looking at the way it closed, it might move up to 78.6 level.
  • #1,357
  • Jan 6, 2009 2:21pm Jan 6, 2009 2:21pm
Nice one friend. this thread will soon witness eruption soonest Mike
  • #1,358
  • Jan 6, 2009 2:25pm Jan 6, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting Naijafx
Nice one friend. this thread will soon witness eruption soonest Mike
Yeah!

I am still angry at the fact that I missed the huge move on Cable. I was right about the long setup, but too bad the confirmation candle ran away from me.
  • #1,359
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:10pm Jan 6, 2009 5:10pm
EUR/USD trade Signal SELL!!

Entry @ 1.3518
S/L @ 1.3540
T/P @ 1.3385

Trade at your own risk. (78.6 retracement isn't perfect)
But S/L is very tight, so I took this trade.
  • #1,360
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:31pm Jan 6, 2009 5:31pm
james,

i see, u got in from 15min tf. smart of u................ but i will prefer 1hr really............... 15min tf entry looked good though.

keep it up.

U have daz blood in u!
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