Why Fibonacci Retracements are Bullocks | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Dynamic Traders's Fibonacci Price Retracements/Projects Levels 0 replies

Fibonacci Retracements 14 replies

Entering on Fibonacci retracements. 10 replies

Exit Strategy using Fibonacci Retracements 12 replies

fibonacci retracements etc 6 replies

Attachments: Why Fibonacci Retracements are Bullocks
Exit Attachments

Why Fibonacci Retracements are Bullocks

  • #101
  • Jan 6, 2009 1:00am Jan 6, 2009 1:00am
Quoting Scotty B
Does anybody else smell spam?
Smell your brain, which is the same colour but that's about all!
  • #102
  • Jan 6, 2009 1:05am Jan 6, 2009 1:05am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
not quite sure but i smell a person with a strong egotism.
It's about making money! Now I am short since the 61.8% fib on eurusd as per my chart that I posted here in this thread a few session back. Yesterday I kept adding to those positions! The net result - over 17000.00 usd, not bad for 11 days work so far - kraut! How much did you make?
  • #103
  • Jan 6, 2009 1:13am Jan 6, 2009 1:13am
Quoting TraderJack
It's about making money! Now I am short since the 61.8% fib on eurusd as per my chart that I posted here in this thread a few session back. Yesterday I kept adding to those positions! The net result - over 17000.00 usd, not bad for 11 days work so far - kraut! How much did you make?
Hey Traderjack

Have you read the recent publication called "Fibonacci Analysis" by Constance Brown. She has been an Institutional trader for over 25 years and has taken Joe Di Napoli's work to a whole new level.

Her Confluence / Inflection points are spot on.
  • #104
  • Jan 6, 2009 1:44am Jan 6, 2009 1:44am
Quoting TraderJack
It's about making money! Now I am short since the 61.8% fib on eurusd as per my chart that I posted here in this thread a few session back. Yesterday I kept adding to those positions! The net result - over 17000.00 usd, not bad for 11 days work so far - kraut! How much did you make?
says one kraut to the other.

like i said- egotism

who cares how much you made or how many houses you have? after your 5th post? no one in real life listening to those stats?
  • #105
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:21am Jan 6, 2009 4:21am
Quoting Tornado
Hey Traderjack

Have you read the recent publication called "Fibonacci Analysis" by Constance Brown. She has been an Institutional trader for over 25 years and has taken Joe Di Napoli's work to a whole new level.

Her Confluence / Inflection points are spot on.
Just added this to my shopping cart, thanks for the post.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #106
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:26am Jan 6, 2009 4:26am
Quoting TraderJack
It's about making money! Now I am short since the 61.8% fib on eurusd as per my chart that I posted here in this thread a few session back. Yesterday I kept adding to those positions! The net result - over 17000.00 usd, not bad for 11 days work so far - kraut! How much did you make?
Jack, nice analysis and trade.

The blue fibo on my chart, between points 1 & 2, is the same one you drew back in post #54. At point 3 we have a strong rejection candle (“pin bar” in James16 speak) at approx 61.8 retrace, as you point out. This also coincides with prior congestion type S/R shown by the blue rectangle.

My red fibo is drawn between points 2 & 3, and the orange one between 3 & 4. We get another strong rejection/outside candle (see orange arrow) at the 61.8 retrace of the orange fib. As you point out, it’s also around the 50.0 retrace of the blue fibo. The bounce at point 4 coincides with strong prior S/R shown by the leftmost red arrow, and a 38.2 retrace on the red fibo.

All of this is made easy (for me) by hindsight, of course.

OK, so where is the move likely to go to? My pick for a possible profit taking area is the green rectangle. It coincides with flipover S/R (green arrows), a 161.8 extension of the orange fibo, and a 61.8 retrace of the red fibo. There’s also some decent resistance that might become support, shown at the purple rectangle. Pure schoolboy guesswork on my part, as I’m still very much a newbie, and slowly learning which types of S/R are most likely to be respected.

Let’s see what happens......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro fibos and sr.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #107
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:48am Jan 6, 2009 4:48am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Just added this to my shopping cart, thanks for the post.
LahVahGoose,

I must warn you the book is very complex. I had to read it 3 times over and i'm still not fluent with her teachings.

The chapters on "Rhythmic wave diagrams" and "Harmonic Unity within market price and time" went completely over my head. I still cant grasp it.

The chapters on Conluence, Expansion, Contraction, S+R are very good. The hardest part is to choose which data sub sets to divide the Fib Ratios and a huge revelation is that is not the high / low or low / high that most traders use. She mentions the use of strong bars which begin either a Thrust up or a Meltdown

Enjoy
  • #108
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:29am Jan 6, 2009 5:29am
Quoting Tornado
Hey Traderjack

Have you read the recent publication called "Fibonacci Analysis" by Constance Brown. She has been an Institutional trader for over 25 years and has taken Joe Di Napoli's work to a whole new level.

Her Confluence / Inflection points are spot on.
Thanks for the tip. No, I have not read it but I did the STA Diploma course on technical analysis in 2004, in London and read Robert Fischer - Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders, as part of the course. Personally, I feel that I have enough or the right technical tools now. The Fib retracement on EURUSD, was just screaming out during that bear market rally (which by the way others were calling a bullish reversal!). All I do is move the 61.8% line down to the hourly or 30 minute chart and watch how the market price action reacts to the level. I will then go short or long with a stop just the other side once I feel that the levels is holding. Thats all I do with most of the technical aspects. Big picture down to shorter term and once my position is secure I will add to it with larger size. Its the only way, at least for me.
  • #109
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:32am Jan 6, 2009 5:32am
OK, so where is the move likely to go to? My pick for a possible profit taking area is the green rectangle. It coincides with flipover S/R (green arrows), a 161.8 extension of the orange fibo, and a 61.8 retrace of the red fibo. There’s also some decent resistance that might become support, shown at the purple rectangle. Pure schoolboy guesswork on my part, as I’m still very much a newbie, and slowly learning which types of S/R are most likely to be respected.

Let’s see what happens......[/quote]

Finally a chart with good support and resistance levels. I'm looking for 1.3220 area today/tomorrow. Then look again. My positions are all secure now but if the market starts holding above 1.3400 I might begin to close up!
  • #110
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:34am Jan 6, 2009 5:34am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
says one kraut to the other.

like i said- egotism

who cares how much you made or how many houses you have? after your 5th post? no one in real life listening to those stats?
No, I'm not Kraut. I come from London. And quite simply, I do not have time to post. Really not. This just further supports my argument that most people here are not regular profit makers - after all, its a lot easier to post than to place a position in the market! And there will not be many post from me!
  • #111
  • Jan 19, 2009 1:18pm Jan 19, 2009 1:18pm
Tornado, would it be possible to PM you regarding this book, I've made my way to page 39, would like to see how your doing drawing the fibs and would like to bounce some ideas.

Thanks,

Mike
  • #112
  • Jan 19, 2009 2:43pm Jan 19, 2009 2:43pm
I think the main people that people have, and the main reason they think Fibonacci doesn't work, is that they don't draw Fibs correctly.
The "from highest high to lowest low" is so open, that if you check a graph, almost any high is the highest high *from there* and any low is the lowest low *up to there*.
I have a friend, a very respectftul full time trader with more experience than me, who says that Fibonacci doesn't work because you can draw Fibs from any point to any point.
If you read DeMark and his way of drawing support and resistance channels, you can understand the difference between drawing something on a chart and drawing something that works on a chart.
Why is is that in the most obvious patterns Fibonacci work? Because you take all the people who draw them in a similar way douring the day, and make them draw them in the exact same way.
One of the great things about Steve and his No Brainer Trades is exactly that. One of the problems in trading is that it takes a genious to see the obvious.
  • #113
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:13pm Jan 19, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting Quantum4x
I think the main people that people have, and the main reason they think Fibonacci doesn't work, is that they don't draw Fibs correctly.
The "from highest high to lowest low" is so open, that if you check a graph, almost any high is the highest high *from there* and any low is the lowest low *up to there*.
I have a friend, a very respectftul full time trader with more experience than me, who says that Fibonacci doesn't work because you can draw Fibs from any point to any point.
If you read DeMark and his way of drawing support and resistance channels,...
Read Tornado's response regarding Constance Brown, they don't line up because they are either drawn wrong or the market is expanding or contracting. Crazy I know but it's true. You need to really be dedicated to get her book though and get ready to spend a day on a paragraph in some cases if not more.
  • #114
  • Jan 19, 2009 4:58pm Jan 19, 2009 4:58pm
Why stop at Fibonnaci? Most patterns are no better than 50/50 when it comes to predictive powers; test them all, triangles, 'pinbars' (or Wyckoff Springs as they are more commonly known), stochastics and so on, they all fail to fortell the future!!

When newbies trade these patterns and find that they are not predictive, they are told that they "applied it wrong", "didn't draw it correctly", "didn't overlay enough indicators" and so on. Sound familiar?

Despite this fact, I still trade using Fibonnaci, triangles, Wyckoff Springs, double tops/bottoms.

Once you figure out WHY these patterns are useful, then your thinking starts to change, and this is a critical step to becoming a profitable trader.
  • #115
  • Jan 27, 2009 10:21am Jan 27, 2009 10:21am
i think the best way to know if the strategy depend on fib works or not is to make back testing for daily fib , but that type of indicator which gives you bake results of fib is not available ,
and in you have this type of indicator will help you to know where the trend will retrace the most often,
....
  • #116
  • Feb 7, 2009 12:15pm Feb 7, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting Tornado
LahVahGoose,

I must warn you the book is very complex. I had to read it 3 times over and I'm still not fluent with her teachings.

The chapters on "Rhythmic wave diagrams" and "Harmonic Unity within market price and time" went completely over my head. I still cant grasp it.

The chapters on Confluence, Expansion, Contraction, S+R are very good. The hardest part is to choose which data sub sets to divide the Fib Ratios and a huge revelation is that is not the high / low or low / high that most traders use. She mentions the use of strong...
Thanks for the heads up. I have it saved in the cart and will get to it for sure. My interest right now is trading psychology since I think that needs to be nailed down. Having base system and having the psychology, then move on to the fancier stuff like the book you mentioned. Reading Elder and Douglas right now and then going to read Van Tharp's stuff.

I don't what it is about fibo's, but I like them and they work out for me. I guess everyone is wired a bit differently.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #117
  • Feb 7, 2009 12:16pm Feb 7, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting miklamx
Read Tornado's response regarding Constance Brown, they don't line up because they are either drawn wrong or the market is expanding or contracting. Crazy I know but it's true. You need to really be dedicated to get her book though and get ready to spend a day on a paragraph in some cases if not more.
Would you recommend another book as "primer" before reading the Constance Brown book?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #118
  • Feb 7, 2009 12:25pm Feb 7, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting Quantum4x
I think the main people that people have, and the main reason they think Fibonacci doesn't work, is that they don't draw Fibs correctly.
The "from highest high to lowest low" is so open, that if you check a graph, almost any high is the highest high *from there* and any low is the lowest low *up to there*.
I have a friend, a very respectful full time trader with more experience than me, who says that Fibonacci doesn't work because you can draw Fibs from any point to any point.
If you read

DeMark

...
Support and Resistance (supply/demand) is great and definitely a foundation for me. What I like even more is when you have Fibs that are right in line with the S&R areas and create zones where you see price react.

Another thing you can do is you can draw fibs from any point to any point then draw 2, 3, 7, however many Fibs on a chart and see where the lines cluster up, lots of time you will see a support / resistance area with a large cluster of fib lines all stacked on top of each other.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #119
  • Feb 7, 2009 12:44pm Feb 7, 2009 12:44pm
Where does common sense come into play??

Where does the idea that the market is 100% efficient, and never lagging sit with you? The fact that the price doesn't move anywhere.... it just IS.

And the price is always a current snapshot of exactly what it should be, based on the most recent information.
  • #120
  • Feb 8, 2009 11:08pm Feb 8, 2009 11:08pm
What the data of comparison retracements using fibo, decimal or any other ratios and their effectiveness? - and there is no argument ...
Questions why and what primer - chicken or an egg - matter for different discussion.
0 traders viewing now