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Why Fibonacci Retracements are Bullocks

  • #81
  • Edited 3:11pm Jan 3, 2009 3:01pm | Edited 3:11pm
The rest...

Edit...When I said to notice that price could not break the T1 on the last screen shot, I meant to say the T2, because the T2 is the next growth trigger.
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  • #82
  • Jan 3, 2009 3:06pm Jan 3, 2009 3:06pm
You're right, you confused the heck out of me, lol. I'll check out your blog, as I'm always interested in different approaches to fibs.

What are your source materials for this approach? Just a point in the right direction will suit me just fine.

Thanks for the post.
  • #83
  • Jan 3, 2009 3:09pm Jan 3, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting Dopey
You're right, you confused the heck out of me, lol. I'll check out your blog, as I'm always interested in different approaches to fibs.

What are your source materials for this approach? Just a point in the right direction will suit me just fine.

Thanks for the post.
My brain, and a few headaches serve as the source material.
  • #84
  • Jan 3, 2009 5:14pm Jan 3, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting Scotty B
My brain, and a few headaches serve as the source material.
it's like taking fibs to a whole nother level. Pretty cool stuff. Have you ever heard of Fib Zones?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #85
  • Jan 3, 2009 5:23pm Jan 3, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
it's like taking fibs to a whole nother level. Pretty cool stuff. Have you ever heard of Fib Zones?
Yes, but I don't trade them. The truth is, there are several different ways to trade fibs. To each man his own.
  • #86
  • Jan 3, 2009 7:18pm Jan 3, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting SunTrader
Since there are some that trade price action, I am curious, do they believe price has to move a certain way to the exact pip in order for that method to be considered successful?

And if not, why then does any other method have to be held to that standard.

Proponents of fibs are the ones who are "holding it to that standard." How? By putting a digit after the decimal point in the retracement values. Look up the terms "precision" and "significant digits."

When someone says a valid retracement is 38.2% they are claiming a level of precision of 1/1000 and only values which fall within 5/10,000 to each side of that value are valid. So a retracement value of 38.2% implies that only values between 38.15% and 38.25% (non-inclusive of the endpoints) are valid. A retracement of 41.4% or whatever is well outside this level of precision claimed by the proponents.

The critics aren't holding fibs to this standard; the proponents are claiming this standard. Otherwise, they would just say 40% or something instead of "38.2%." The OP's point on this is quite valid.
  • #87
  • Jan 4, 2009 12:50am Jan 4, 2009 12:50am
Quoting capitalist88
Proponents of fibs are the ones who are "holding it to that standard." How? By putting a digit after the decimal point in the retracement values. Look up the terms "precision" and "significant digits."

When someone says a valid retracement is 38.2% they are claiming a level of precision of 1/1000 and only values which fall within 5/10,000 to each side of that value are valid. So a retracement value of 38.2% implies that only values between 38.15% and 38.25% (non-inclusive of the endpoints) are valid. A retracement of 41.4% or whatever is...
That's a generalization. I've been trading fibs for years now. I use 38.2, 61.8, etc, but I really don't give a shit if it hits 40%. I see fibs as just S/R zones. I think it's the critics who get bent out of shape when they point out the under and over shoots.

We're tossing hand grenades when we trade, not splitting atoms.
  • #88
  • Jan 4, 2009 4:34am Jan 4, 2009 4:34am
First of all, I personally do not believe that there are full-time or successful traders on this site. By successful I mean month in month out profit/loss sheets showing good regular profits! The traders I know, some of whom snipe as many as 2000 bund contracts at a time, are not sitting down and living out their technical fantasy on some chat site! The technical stuff that gets written here is flawed.

Secondly, and this is aimed at Scotty B! Your Fibonacci levels are not correctly placed on the chart? Also, and probably more important, Fibonacci retracement levels have nothing to do with cycles? Where the hell do you get cycle phases from??

Well, the truth is in your profit and loss sheet right!

Technical trading is all about finding opportunities and then taking advantage of them by using a chart and confiming the signals with indicators. Technical indicators are about confidence building. Market opportunities require confirmation, but when the picture becomes too complicated then so does the decision making process! Entering a position in the market has to come from a position of power and confidence. A position taken in a frenzied uncertain moment will always result in a loss. For this reason many successful traders keep their charts simple applying only the same indicators set at the same parameters.

Fibonacci retracement levels can signal great opportunities during corrections (surpassing the 61.8% with a good close above/below will often signal a complete retracement), potential targets are likewise good for keeping you in the trade when projected forward.

TIP: If you find a sharp move in the market on the short term chart, either up or down, and find that the market then retraces 100%, you can take the lower number from the higher number and multiply the total by 0.618 and/or 1.618 to get "to the pip" potential targets. Also you can apply the golden section after the first target has been hit to find the potential timing of the second target!

In thisd business, it's profit that counts, nothing else!
  • #89
  • Jan 4, 2009 2:22pm Jan 4, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting TraderJack
First of all, I personally do not believe that there are full-time or successful traders on this site. By successful I mean month in month out profit/loss sheets showing good regular profits! The traders I know, some of whom snipe as many as 2000 bund contracts at a time, are not sitting down and living out their technical fantasy on some chat site! The technical stuff that gets written here is flawed.

Secondly, and this is aimed at Scotty B! Your Fibonacci levels are not correctly placed on the chart? Also, and probably more important, Fibonacci...
Hey Jack...You sound like you have your mind made up, or maybe more frozen up. You made big blanket statements and assumptions but backed up none of them with evidence. You made no attempt to understand what I presented. So I guess all we can do until that happens is talk about what you like...So are you a pretty big Nascar fan? Who is your favorite driver? Are you a card-holding member of the flat earth society?

Regards,

Scotty B
  • #90
  • Edited 3:54pm Jan 4, 2009 3:31pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting TraderJack
First of all, I personally do not believe that there are full-time or successful traders on this site. By successful I mean month in month out profit/loss sheets showing good regular profits! The traders I know, some of whom snipe as many as 2000 bund contracts at a time, are not sitting down and living out their technical fantasy on some chat site! The technical stuff that gets written here is flawed.

Secondly, and this is aimed at Scotty B! Your Fibonacci levels are not correctly placed on the chart? Also, and probably more important, Fibonacci...
determining targets by maths, because the markets move only because of maths, shows how professional... you are

2000 microlots? nice

keep on indicating

btw. here are more big money guys socializing than you think...50-100 standards isn't something i'd call small for individual traders.
  • #91
  • Jan 4, 2009 6:33pm Jan 4, 2009 6:33pm
Quoting TraderJack
First of all, I personally do not believe that there are full-time or successful traders on this site. By successful I mean month in month out profit/loss sheets showing good regular profits! The traders I know, some of whom snipe as many as 2000 bund contracts at a time, are not sitting down and living out their technical fantasy on some chat site! The technical stuff that gets written here is flawed.

Secondly, and this is aimed at Scotty B! Your Fibonacci levels are not correctly placed on the chart? Also, and probably more important, Fibonacci...
That's a pretty hard statement you made over here.Personally I think a profitable trader is a kind and humble person by nature.

I fill that Scotty's post have some value ,even it looks kind of confusing for me.But because it may not make sens for me let's say, I don't need to nail him down.
  • #92
  • Jan 5, 2009 2:21am Jan 5, 2009 2:21am
Quoting Scotty B
Hey Jack...You sound like you have your mind made up, or maybe more frozen up. You made big blanket statements and assumptions but backed up none of them with evidence. You made no attempt to understand what I presented. So I guess all we can do until that happens is talk about what you like...So are you a pretty big Nascar fan? Who is your favorite driver? Are you a card-holding member of the flat earth society?

Regards,

Scotty B
Well my mind is now made up about this site! There are no big statements, just real life experience. There is very little point in trying to understand what you say about Fibonacci - but I hope that it works for you and that it yields good profit for you, but you know my thoughts. Between trading I have very little time to present different technical aspects here. But there is a trading competition beginning in February, the link is currently on FX Street. Perhaps you would care to sign up there Scotty, that would be good evidence right?

To the others, I am not nasty or hard, just real! I pay into Plan International since years - that is surely being kind right. Humble, well I own two houses and burn a log oven, thats humble isn't it?
  • #93
  • Jan 5, 2009 2:35am Jan 5, 2009 2:35am
Quoting TraderJack
Well my mind is now made up about this site! There are no big statements, just real life experience. There is very little point in trying to understand what you say about Fibonacci - but I hope that it works for you and that it yields good profit for you, but you know my thoughts. Between trading I have very little time to present different technical aspects here. But there is a trading competition beginning in February, the link is currently on FX Street. Perhaps you would care to sign up there Scotty, that would be good evidence right?

To the...
Does anybody else smell spam?
  • #94
  • Jan 5, 2009 3:05am Jan 5, 2009 3:05am
Quoting Scotty B
Does anybody else smell spam?
not quite sure but i smell a person with a strong egotism.
  • #95
  • Jan 5, 2009 5:34am Jan 5, 2009 5:34am
Quoting TraderJack
Well my mind is now made up about this site! There are no big statements, just real life experience. There is very little point in trying to understand what you say about Fibonacci - but I hope that it works for you and that it yields good profit for you, but you know my thoughts. Between trading I have very little time to present different technical aspects here. But there is a trading competition beginning in February, the link is currently on FX Street. Perhaps you would care to sign up there Scotty, that would be good evidence right?

To the...
I think TraderJack has hit the nail on the head. Solid, Succesful traders who turn a profit month in month out, quarter in quarter out, year in year out, dont have time to post on forums. This site as many others only has 7.5% - 10% of individuals making consistent profit. Those people know who they are.
  • #96
  • Jan 5, 2009 5:40am Jan 5, 2009 5:40am
I smell a very very successful trader.

The last sentence of the "TIP" in post #88 is something which only very few traders know of. I will give anything to learn that.

regards for everyone.
  • #97
  • Jan 5, 2009 5:59am Jan 5, 2009 5:59am
Quoting Tornado
I think TraderJack has hit the nail on the head. Solid, Succesful traders who turn a profit month in month out, quarter in quarter out, year in year out, dont have time to post on forums. This site as many others only has 7.5% - 10% of individuals making consistent profit. Those people know who they are.
Probably much less than 7.5%. What is the motivation to spend time arguing with idiots or trying to help people who just throw it back in your face? Intellectual discussion is rare. It gets to a stage where you do not care what other people think about the markets or indicators or systems. If you believe in what you do, then what other people think does not matter. If Scotty B is cool with the way he trades then he does not give a shit if Trader Jack says otherwise. If your beliefs can not stand up to the scutiny of some hot head on a forum then they aren't really beliefs, at least not ones that you should risk your money on.

The vast majority of forum users are scrambling around in the dark futilely looking for a system that will make them rich, some come to leech trade ideas from other traders who appear to know what they are talking about and a handful just come here to shoot the shit whilst they wait for their next trade and have the occasional argument.
  • #98
  • Jan 5, 2009 6:03am Jan 5, 2009 6:03am
Quoting TraderJack
1. First of all, I personally do not believe that there are full-time or successful traders on this site. ....

2. Technical trading is all about finding opportunities ...

3. In this business, it's profit that counts, nothing else!
Hi Trader Jack.. I agree with you..
1. Successfull trader not sell their system to someone else, like I did. But way back before, I got all my system from this site. My system has complete now.
2. Opportunities.. yes.. I remember one member of this site quote.. "I trade like a snipper.. I wait.."
3. Yup.. it's about profit. But always make losses as your friends too.

So, everybody is right. There are no wrong. Just always read forum, and analyse chart. Someday, you all will have your own system and trading style.
  • #99
  • Jan 5, 2009 10:55am Jan 5, 2009 10:55am
Quoting birdt
Probably much less than 7.5%....
Very well put, and I suspect probably very close to the truth.

It's interesting how many folk here seem to cling desperately to their beliefs, and react indignantly if challenged. There is more than one profitable way to trade, and different, even seemingly contradictory, maxims might both be valid in different situations. Like you say, intellectual discussion is rare, and there are many contributors who make sweeping generalizations without supporting evidence. There are also plenty who apparently believe that just because they can't make a certain tool or approach work profitably for them, that nobody else can either. Hence the threads like "Why Fib retracements are bollocks", "Why indicators will fail you", and so forth.
  • #100
  • Jan 5, 2009 11:10am Jan 5, 2009 11:10am
Yes they shud be called ' Why I cant make fibs work' and 'why i cant make indicators work'
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