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  • #53,281
  • Jan 3, 2009 11:37am Jan 3, 2009 11:37am
Quoting Terminale
Forex in the weekend is mostly wrong. Some traders close their positions friday . Try to look at XE.com from Sunday 6:00 PM GMT. Anything before could be wrong data.
Thats ok, my broker is opened by that time.
  • #53,282
  • Jan 3, 2009 12:35pm Jan 3, 2009 12:35pm
Just finished my complete analysis of all time frames available to me. I find that we are about to enter a continuation of a multi year bear market in eur/usd. I am ready to short.
But I would recommend for everyone to do their own analysis and not follow someone else's advice.
  • #53,283
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:04pm Jan 3, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting iii
Just finished my complete analysis of all time frames available to me. I find that we are about to enter a continuation of a multi year bear market in eur/usd. I am ready to short.
But I would recommend for everyone to do their own analysis and not follow someone else's advice.
multiyear?

care to explain your analysis in more detail? would this not change once the rush out of treasure happen? plus i dont think eur got hit as hard as usd from the bubble and flight to safety caused usd to be valued at a much higher rate then it actually is? given eur less effected + rate will be higher (by the time eur finish cutting rate, i believe it will be higher then usd rate), short term i can see eurusd heading down, but i can't seem to see multiyear bear movement especially when money run away from treasury and euro stop cutting rates?
  • #53,284
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:14pm Jan 3, 2009 1:14pm
the eur will most likely go up.

Oil shot up and there is a conflict going on in Gaza. Hamas and Israel are going at it.
  • #53,285
  • Edited 1:23pm Jan 3, 2009 1:22pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting mirex
multiyear?

care to explain your analysis in more detail? would this not change once the rush out of treasure happen? plus i dont think eur got hit as hard as usd from the bubble and flight to safety caused usd to be valued at a much higher rate then it actually is? given eur less effected + rate will be higher (by the time eur finish cutting rate, i believe it will be higher then usd rate), short term i can see eurusd heading down, but i can't seem to see multiyear bear movement especially when money run away from treasury and euro stop cutting...
Hi iii,

Our friend did include a disclaimer to the multi-year analysis. Co-inccidently, I was just reviewing my progress for the month of December 2008 and thinking about the same thing i.e. Long-term Vs Short-term trading. If a pair moves 100 pips in one direction and let's say 120 pips in other direction in a day, it will take ages for it to get a net position of 1,000 pips in any one direction. So why not trade short term? I am sure there would be multi-year bear or bulls out there somewhere, but have no idea how many of them - may be very few.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #53,286
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:25pm Jan 3, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting mirex
multiyear?

care to explain your analysis in more detail? would this not change once the rush out of treasure happen? plus i dont think eur got hit as hard as usd from the bubble and flight to safety caused usd to be valued at a much higher rate then it actually is? given eur less effected + rate will be higher (by the time eur finish cutting rate, i believe it will be higher then usd rate), short term i can see eurusd heading down, but i can't seem to see multiyear bear movement especially when money run away from treasury and euro stop cutting...
As you can see in my disclaim, I do not wish for someone else to follow my analysis. My approach is very involved, and subjective so I will not try to explain it here.
Fundamental reasons do not concern me, as I have seen from prior experience their inability to accurately forecast future value.
I am simply stating my findings but it is ultimately up to each individual traders to use their own system to come up with trading decisions.
  • #53,287
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:29pm Jan 3, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting Chicky
Hi iii,

Our friend did include a disclaimer to the multi-year analysis. Co-inccidently, I was just reviewing my progress for the month of December 2008 and thinking about the same thing i.e. Long-term Vs Short-term trading. If a pair moves 100 pips in one direction and let's say 120 pips in other direction in a day, it will take ages for it to get a net position of 1,000 pips in any one direction. So why not trade short term? I am sure there would be multi-year bear or bulls out there somewhere, but have no idea how many of them - may be very...
I do trade both short and long term (short term is my preference). I just think that it is advantageous to know the overall, macro trend as it would be easier to follow the direction with least resistance. For instance I would be hesitant to take long trades in the current situation, but it does not mean that I will not take them at a much smaller time frame.
  • #53,288
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:34pm Jan 3, 2009 1:34pm
Quoting iii
Just finished my complete analysis of all time frames available to me. I find that we are about to enter a continuation of a multi year bear market in eur/usd. I am ready to short.
But I would recommend for everyone to do their own analysis and not follow someone else's advice.
I disagree. I have faith in the slow stochastics over the long run

http://i39.tinypic.com/309rkhd.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
  • #53,289
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:38pm Jan 3, 2009 1:38pm
Is anybody following the speeches by the Federal Reserve seniors that are due soon?
Do you think they are meaningful?
  • #53,290
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:40pm Jan 3, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I disagree. I have faith in the slow stochastics over the long run

http://i39.tinypic.com/309rkhd.jpg
Stochastics do point to a long about now, but I do not use indicators because I find them to lag. However good luck with your trades, hope they work out.
  • #53,291
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:41pm Jan 3, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting Yohay
Is anybody following the speeches by the Federal Reserve seniors that are due soon?
Do you think they are meaningful?
I do not follow them, but I cannot provide a reason why I dont, I just dont.
  • #53,292
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:41pm Jan 3, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting Yohay
Is anybody following the speeches by the Federal Reserve seniors that are due soon?
Do you think they are meaningful?
I follow them but not as closely as I used to.

It's meaningful and it's also meaningless at the same time.

Meaningful in the sense that their speeches will have a short term impact. Good thing if you do intraday trading.

Meaningless in the sense that in the end, the United States are broke which negatively impacts their currency in the long term.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #53,293
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:42pm Jan 3, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting iii
I do trade both short and long term (short term is my preference). I just think that it is advantageous to know the overall, macro trend as it would be easier to follow the direction with least resistance. For instance I would be hesitant to take long trades in the current situation, but it does not mean that I will not take them at a much smaller time frame.
Thanks iii for explaining the purpose of multi-year analysis. I do understand benefit of knowing long-term trend. However, just to share my experience, I tried to do the same thing in June 2007, and if I correctly remember, noticed everything whether currecy pairs, DJI, gold or oil maintained same direction since 2004. However, things started to change from July 2007 and that also is at a very rapid pace. The lesson learned for me was to rely more on recent trend. I now do not look at the trend, just pa. However, like you said, everyone should do thier own analysis. An approach that works for me, may or may not necessarily work for all our friends.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #53,294
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:46pm Jan 3, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting Chicky
Thanks iii for explaining the purpose of multi-year analysis. I do understand benefit of knowing long-term trend. However, just to share my experience, I tried to do the same thing in June 2007, and if I correctly remember, noticed everything whether currecy pairs, DJI, gold or oil maintained same direction since 2004. However, things started to change from July 2007 and that also is at a very rapid pace. The lesson learned for me was to rely more on recent trend. I now do not look at the trend, just pa. However, like you said, everyone should do...
I am likewise a pa trader myself. For my short term trades I do a daily analysis on 10M, 1H, 4H, 1D. Longer term I include all those for the short term but also use 1W 1MN. I find gold to be closely correlated with the price of eur/usd not so much oil as it deviates quite alot.
  • #53,295
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:47pm Jan 3, 2009 1:47pm
Good evening - support @ 1.3835/20 still holding as price bounced higher. Horizontal lines are S&R levels from the dayly tf drawn by oldschool line method. Nothing new and nothing magical. Looks like price has made a complete 61.8% retrace from the fall of 1.4717 Now if support level i have marked in blue breaks im looking for the targets i have marked below. If that happens ill be looking at price action to confirm the lower TL i have drawn in projection of the upper border as i believe we might be trading inside a possible bullish flag pattern. I might be completely wrong, so just trade the chart. I have some fibo levels on the downside marked as targets once and if support breaks. If the high @ 1.4360 right on the 61.2% fibo retrace is taken out i will reevaluate. Another clue of this going down is the dayly bearish HD divergence in observing on MACD, that shows more downside to come. We still need it to be confirmed as she might try to avoid the crossover

More information to come @ my trading journal if anyone is interested.

Regards and safe pippin'

Cheers!
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  • #53,296
  • Jan 3, 2009 2:42pm Jan 3, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I follow them but not as closely as I used to.

It's meaningful and it's also meaningless at the same time.

Meaningful in the sense that their speeches will have a short term impact. Good thing if you do intraday trading.

Meaningless in the sense that in the end, the United States are broke which negatively impacts their currency in the long term.
Yeah, I guess they are meaningless in the weekend.
And yes, the US is broke, and the dollar has quite a dark future...
  • #53,297
  • Jan 3, 2009 6:44pm Jan 3, 2009 6:44pm
Quoting Atondra
The price is 1.3851 now at http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
Well 8 hours later that site is showing Bid 1.3920 / Ask 1.3923 so unchanged from Friday close.

Meaningless anyway when almost all of the forex world takes weekends off.
  • #53,298
  • Jan 3, 2009 6:53pm Jan 3, 2009 6:53pm
Why ........... does someone do long term analysis if they trade short term ??

Kind of like checking the weather forecast for a month away when you are going on vacation this week.
  • #53,299
  • Jan 3, 2009 7:13pm Jan 3, 2009 7:13pm
Quoting SunTrader
Why ........... does someone do long term analysis if they trade short term ??

Kind of like checking the weather forecast for a month away when you are going on vacation this week.
I hope that you guys read the FULL post. I stated that I do both short and long term trades, hence the analysis of all.
  • #53,300
  • Jan 3, 2009 7:31pm Jan 3, 2009 7:31pm
Quoting SunTrader
Why ........... does someone do long term analysis if they trade short term ??

Kind of like checking the weather forecast for a month away when you are going on vacation this week.
You are right in a way. But to add, a trade entered for a small gain or loss may turn into a major move in no time because all small moves are part of major swings. It is therefore always prudent to check monthly forecast. Watch birds, but beware of lions behind the bushes.
The Thief of Wall Street
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