Trading Naked - Reading Candlesticks and other Price Analysis

It is on the 5min TF on USD/JPY on Dec 31 2008, I am not sure about the time it occurred as I am in Japan and Mt4 says it was about 12:45 AM but this is certainly not 00:25 AM here in Japan.

Thanks for the interest.

On a 5M UJ chart on an MT4 platform (usually these are calibrated to US ET) in the middle of the night New York time, would make it mid afternoon in Tokyo - this is the quietest time of the trading day. Europe is not yet awake and the US has just gone to bed. Add to that, market is very thin on liquidity at present due to the holidays.

The set-up is termed "Muddle Mess Pattern" meaning market hasn't got a clue what it wants to do and there's not enough liqudity for it to make up it's mind. It's not something you want to trade.

I prefer not to trade the middle piece of the Asian session (even when market is fully liquid)... better to trade the overlaps, US close / Asian open, then come back in a couple of hours and trade the lead up to European open, then the major overlap when Europe and the US are both in full swing. Quiet markets creep too slowly and the candles are not all that reliable.

The "Muddle Mess Pattern" Did you make that up? LoL
It fits well though...
Yes obviously, the market was running out of punters and losing direction.

Thanks for the information.

hehehe yup

yw

nice thread, simple price action/analysis is really all a trader needs regarding entry.

I trade solely using price action via candlesticks and support/Ressistance

Although price action can be extremely effective if used correctly, i will only ever trade with the trend. As many have said before me concerning trend determination, simply look at a chart and if it starts in the top left and moves to the bottom right it is a downtrend. Simple as that. Dont make it too complicated. If i see a perfect price setup but it is against the major trend i will never take it. Going against the trend is much riskier and will produce smaller profits. More than enough trades will pop up with the trend. Also i believe that all traders should trade using daily candles or larger as they are more reliable

As for Support/Resistance, I only trade using Horizontal support/resistance using trendlines or ma's as s/r is too subjective and less reliable. Ideally i trade with the trend with a price confirmation. I never trade into a support/resistance area. I make trades either on bounces or breakthroughs of S/R with trend, or simply when there is not S/R anywhere that could affect my trade

Im sure everyone has heard the whole trading naked thing and just look at price and all that stuff but it will not make you money alone. It may give you an edge if you are good using price action but that does not mean profits. All it means is you are in a trade with a better chance the trade will go your way. But what then? Money management and position sizing will kill most traders no matter how good you are with entries.

Everyone knows that to make money you should cut losses short and let profits run. While risking a small percentage of your capital on each trade such as 2% My money management strategy is not perfect but i would like to tell anyone if they happen to be interested.

I trade using the daily candles. When making a trade i look at the charts at the end of the day. Ideally i would like to make a trade at the end of the day on monday, tuesday or wednesday. Once i make a trade i will always close it out when the market closes on friday if it does not hit my stop loss. As for my stop loss i risk 2% of my capital. My stop loss for example is 200 pips on Eur/Usd, but that varies depending on what pair to adjust to the speed or volatility of that market. I adjust my price per pip so 200 pips will be 2% I like a larger stop loss to avoid any of the noise or chaos of the market and also because i am prepared to hold a position for almost a week. Even though this is a large stop loss i have weeks closed out for a 600+ pip profit. I adjust my price per pip so 200 pips will be 2%. I have no set take profit. Instead as i have explained, i have a timed exit at the end of the week. I feel this is an effective way to let your profits run while limiting losses. I like the timed stop for a few reasons, first, you will capitalize on those huge weeks we see following the trend. Second, after a good price indicator to buy/sell with the trend, i feel when using the daily chart, the price indicator may loose its edge or reliability after holding for a few days and especially over the weekend. If your price indicator gives you say a 60 % reliability. After taking a position based on that indicator and holding over six days i say after that its 50/50 where the price will go. If the price tells you the trend is continuing at the start of the new week you can get right back in. I make an average one trade a week

I feel the question of how to trade is nothing compared as to what to trade. Have you ever wondered why so many forums pop up out of no where and it seems everyone is making money and then it just stops. Its odd how a system could be so effective and then suddenly useless. I feel that this is because market conditions change and the strategy everyone is following no longer works on the few markets they are looking at. The strategy may have been perfect for the conditions of the market at that moment but the personality or behavior of the market is constantly changing. This is why you have to understand what type of markets your strategy works on and search for those markets to trade in. As long as spread is not a huge factor should should keep an eye on it. Don't force trades in a pair you are comfortable with if there a better setups in an unfamiliar pair. Follow the trending markets. If you are unsure about where the trend is going do not trade it.

I dont know if this helped anyone just some input, sorry it may be off topic just trying to help. Thanks for anyone who took the time to read this.

Kburd

A trading group is all about confidence.............nothing else.....

your reward>risk at the end of every month

I am also trying to learn a little about candle patterns. I am currently looking at inside bars. Can be great on higher TFs like 4hr or daily.

Hello guys again

Really happy that you realized that trading the clasic technical analaysis with reading Candelastick patterns at the Support and resistance area is the only best way to trade and sucess hall life.
attached same examples with a current position with GBP/USD indecating the reverse caused by the daily trend line and double top on hourly chart supported by bearish ingulf created right now and divrengece on MACD

another example on JPY

another example trading Candles

To recognize pattern I think it's better to use bar chart.. candlestick bar more useful when we observe market moves

simple resistance with candle breakout from the small range took short at arrow, naked charts and pa are the best

I just read plain bar chart but like to add my trendlines, channels, formations. Keeping it KISS

Is yhis thread still alive?

Sure, check the date in each post

our traget with selleing GBP/USD has been made with +200 pips also EUR retest the broken support and traget more than +200 >>>all of this by reading the candlestick

EUR/USD

I agree.....no indicators.

My normal trading chart

I can see whats happening without bloody indicators and lines everywhere, I have nothing against candles, I even use them when there is a power cut

Real true wisdom here, lots of golden nuggets of truth. If I had the power to vouch, I would definitely give this guy a vouch: What are you guys waiting for! Vouch for him!

Sound Wisdom.

Watch the raly with cable