GBP/JPY has been stopped out.
Liquidate Long GBP/JPY @ 223.38 = -331 pips or -3.52%
Total Pip P/L: -331 pips
Total % P/L: -3.52%
Liquidate Long GBP/JPY @ 223.38 = -331 pips or -3.52%
Total Pip P/L: -331 pips
Total % P/L: -3.52%
- #123
- Mar 13, 2007 10:37pm Mar 13, 2007 10:37pm
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
I am impressed with your honesty, I suspect I would be extremely hesitant to publish the same!
wwh
I know from backtests that my method has about a 15% maximum drawdown. When I committed to using my system, I in effect decided I would be ok with losing 15% of my account (or even more; if this year isn't as good as last). So, when I get one trade that shows I have lost 3.52% out of my maximum tolerable 15%, it is something I have already come to terms with. In the not so distant future, you will see how my method really performs
. Regards,
Kevin
- #126
- Edited 12:55pm Mar 14, 2007 9:37am | Edited 12:55pm
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
Kevin,
WWH and MikeH both stated it very nicely, so let me simply echo their thoughts . . . your willingness to post the occasional loss demonstrates the confidence you have in the method you developed. I agree with you that by the end of the year, you will have posted far more wins than losses.
When doing back testing, it's easy just to record a win or loss and move on to the next trade without emotional attachment. That's harder to do in real trading, when psychology and emotions and fear of loss come into play. It's a tribute to your method and your discipline that you chose to stay the course on this trade.
I've heard in the past that a group of traders can all use the same good method, and some will be fabulously successful, while others will fail, claiming it's the method that's to blame. The key is finding a good method, which you know you have, and then sticking to it faithfully. You set a great example of doing just that.
O.K., enough about Kevin's loss and on to my own loss.
My GBP/USD Long trade was stopped out at -77 pips. I agree with Kevin that it looks like we're setting up for another Long signal.
Four other trades were closed today (these were price action trade rather than Kevin's method):
USD/JPY -20
GBP/JPY +41
GBP/CHF +83
USD/CHF +54
It appears that GBP/JPY may be setting up for a Long trade per Kevin's method. With a daily range of over 300 pips the last few days, though, the issue becomes stop placement.
WWH and MikeH both stated it very nicely, so let me simply echo their thoughts . . . your willingness to post the occasional loss demonstrates the confidence you have in the method you developed. I agree with you that by the end of the year, you will have posted far more wins than losses.
When doing back testing, it's easy just to record a win or loss and move on to the next trade without emotional attachment. That's harder to do in real trading, when psychology and emotions and fear of loss come into play. It's a tribute to your method and your discipline that you chose to stay the course on this trade.
I've heard in the past that a group of traders can all use the same good method, and some will be fabulously successful, while others will fail, claiming it's the method that's to blame. The key is finding a good method, which you know you have, and then sticking to it faithfully. You set a great example of doing just that.
O.K., enough about Kevin's loss and on to my own loss.
My GBP/USD Long trade was stopped out at -77 pips. I agree with Kevin that it looks like we're setting up for another Long signal.
Four other trades were closed today (these were price action trade rather than Kevin's method):
USD/JPY -20
GBP/JPY +41
GBP/CHF +83
USD/CHF +54
It appears that GBP/JPY may be setting up for a Long trade per Kevin's method. With a daily range of over 300 pips the last few days, though, the issue becomes stop placement.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #127
- Mar 14, 2007 3:30pm Mar 14, 2007 3:30pm
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Kevin,
WWH and MikeH both stated it very nicely, so let me simply echo their thoughts . . . your willingness to post the occasional loss demonstrates the confidence you have in the method you developed. I agree with you that by the end of the year, you will have posted far more wins than losses.
When doing back testing, it's easy just to record a win or loss and move on to the next trade without emotional attachment. That's harder to do in real trading, when psychology and emotions and fear of loss come into play. It's a tribute to your method and your discipline that you chose to stay the course on this trade.
I've heard in the past that a group of traders can all use the same good method, and some will be fabulously successful, while others will fail, claiming it's the method that's to blame. The key is finding a good method, which you know you have, and then sticking to it faithfully. You set a great example of doing just that.
O.K., enough about Kevin's loss and on to my own loss.
My GBP/USD Long trade was stopped out at -77 pips. I agree with Kevin that it looks like we're setting up for another Long signal.
Four other trades were closed today (these were price action trade rather than Kevin's method):
USD/JPY -20
GBP/JPY +41
GBP/CHF +83
USD/CHF +54
It appears that GBP/JPY may be setting up for a Long trade per Kevin's method. With a daily range of over 300 pips the last few days, though, the issue becomes stop placement.
Hey Yen,
Very nice post! Thank you for your compliments! I think it is important that I stick to the rules I thought of. Otherwise, I will never know for sure whether my method as is works on its own or not.
Also, it looks as though my early morning prediction may have been correct! I will more than likely be adding 2 long lots on top of my lots I already have for USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Also, I will be giving GBP/JPY a second try long. All these are as per my method.
Best of luck,
Kevin
- #128
- Mar 14, 2007 3:56pm Mar 14, 2007 3:56pm
- | Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Constantly learning | 150 Posts
Hi guys!
Sorry about your losses Kevin, but hang in there!
Two new trades for now:
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2168
Short EUR/GBP @ 0.6830
Hopefully there will be plenty of pips when I wake up tomorrow
Good night for now...
Sorry about your losses Kevin, but hang in there!
Two new trades for now:
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2168
Short EUR/GBP @ 0.6830
Hopefully there will be plenty of pips when I wake up tomorrow
Good night for now...
- #129
- Edited 5:58pm Mar 14, 2007 5:11pm | Edited 5:58pm
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
New Trades:
GBP/JPY (gulp): Long @ 226.51
SL 225.51
TP 229.85
GBP/USD: Long @ 1.9346
SL 1.9246
TP 1.9439
USD/CHF: Long @ 1.2187
SL 1.2095
TP 1.2251
Switzerland releases its Interest Rate Statement at 4:30 EST on Thursday and FF is forecasting a rate increase, but I'm hoping that's already been priced into the market by now.
I'm sticking with these 3 trades, but there are several other trade opportunities on my charts today:
Long: CAD/CHF EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
Short: EUR/CAD EUR/GPB EUR/USD
All these trades are based on Kevin's method according to my charts.
GBP/JPY (gulp)
: Long @ 226.51 SL 225.51
TP 229.85
GBP/USD: Long @ 1.9346
SL 1.9246
TP 1.9439
USD/CHF: Long @ 1.2187
SL 1.2095
TP 1.2251
Switzerland releases its Interest Rate Statement at 4:30 EST on Thursday and FF is forecasting a rate increase, but I'm hoping that's already been priced into the market by now.
I'm sticking with these 3 trades, but there are several other trade opportunities on my charts today:
Long: CAD/CHF EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
Short: EUR/CAD EUR/GPB EUR/USD
All these trades are based on Kevin's method according to my charts.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
wwh,
I know from backtests that my method has about a 15% maximum drawdown. When I committed to using my system, I in effect decided I would be ok with losing 15% of my account (or even more; if this year isn't as good as last). So, when I get one trade that shows I have lost 3.52% out of my maximum tolerable 15%, it is something I have already come to terms with. In the not so distant future, you will see how my method really performs
Regards,
Kevin
Honesty pays you many times in your life.
Forback testing, what platform do you use?
Thanks.
-Chandra
- #133
- Edited 9:19pm Mar 14, 2007 9:11pm | Edited 9:19pm
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Hellooo everyone,
It's that time of the night again; the time we are all excited about; the posting of my TRADES!
Long USD/JPY @ 117.240
T/P = 118.539
S/L = 115.507
Long GBP/USD @ 1.93619
T/P = 1.94649
S/L = 1.92000
Long GBP/JPY @ 226.956
T/P = 230.762
S/L = 223.154
I have switched from 4% risk to 5% risk yielding an 18% drawdown and way more profits (according to backtests)
Best of luck ,
Kevin
PS for wwh and my trades
wwh,
I have found that assuming you have already lost once a trade has been placed is the best policy. That way when you are winning you are pumped and when you are losing, you feel indifferent because you have already lost in your mind. Most people will disagree with the be happy when you win thing, but why the hell wouldn't I be happy when I'm making money? I'm not going to try to fool myself or others by acting indifferent to a win.
Regards,
Kevin
Also here are my trades since I forgot. As you can see, I still have the lot in GBP/USD and USD/JPY from a while back.
It's that time of the night again; the time we are all excited about; the posting of my TRADES!
Long USD/JPY @ 117.240
T/P = 118.539
S/L = 115.507
Long GBP/USD @ 1.93619
T/P = 1.94649
S/L = 1.92000
Long GBP/JPY @ 226.956
T/P = 230.762
S/L = 223.154
I have switched from 4% risk to 5% risk yielding an 18% drawdown and way more profits (according to backtests)
Best of luck
,Kevin
PS for wwh and my trades
I found your response re- reporting losses quite informative. I suspect that I have not come to terms with that aspect yet (still probably embarrassed). I wish you the greatest performance with your method. Btw your call on gbp/usd and usd/jpy was very accurate despite the fact that these usually run opposite!
wwh
wwh,
I have found that assuming you have already lost once a trade has been placed is the best policy. That way when you are winning you are pumped and when you are losing, you feel indifferent because you have already lost in your mind. Most people will disagree with the be happy when you win thing, but why the hell wouldn't I be happy when I'm making money? I'm not going to try to fool myself or others by acting indifferent to a win.
Regards,
Kevin
Also here are my trades since I forgot. As you can see, I still have the lot in GBP/USD and USD/JPY from a while back.
- #136
- Mar 15, 2007 4:19pm Mar 15, 2007 4:19pm
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
No new trades today, but I did place a Limit Order to Short EUR/USD if it reaches 1.3250 again. I rarely trade this pair, but was swayed by:
Short signal per Kevin's method
Double Top or close @ 1.3260 on 2/27, 1.3253 today
Divergence on Momentum indicator--Daily & 240 charts
High for the year is 1.3297, so a fairly small stop is possible
The GBP/JPY Long trade has moved up nicely so far (+101 pips), but this trade's a long way from done, so time will tell.
Short signal per Kevin's method
Double Top or close @ 1.3260 on 2/27, 1.3253 today
Divergence on Momentum indicator--Daily & 240 charts
High for the year is 1.3297, so a fairly small stop is possible
The GBP/JPY Long trade has moved up nicely so far (+101 pips), but this trade's a long way from done, so time will tell.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #137
- Mar 15, 2007 5:12pm Mar 15, 2007 5:12pm
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Hi Chandra, My answers can be found within your quote in red
Hey Yen,
I'm seeing the high for the year at 1.3363 on 12-8-06. Also, I'm not getting a signal on my charts although it's close. I do like that it is forming a doji on the daily today. I would wait for some bearish confirmation to enter, but whatever you do, good luck!
Current trades are looking pretty good at the moment; was hoping for more movement today, but maybe tonight/tomorrow will be enough to cash out.
Good luck,
Kevin
Hi Kevin,
How many pairs you watch?
For now, I am only going to be trading USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and GBP/USD. I'm doing this because they are the top performers in backtests averaging a 70% win rate.
Do you take all trades that come up?
Yes; if it is a signal by my method, I take it.
Do you analyse at the end of the day and place orders immediately or wait to place order until next day.
I usually check on my trades throughout the day, just to see the progress. I actually place my trades an hour or two before close; which for me is 11PM CST. I like to look at the charts on smaller time frames just glancing using candlestick analysis and fib lines, so I can know what to expect in the short term. No matter what though, I will follow my method's rules.
I have learned that analysis work and identifying the entry signals is only a small part of the job, managing the trades to successful completion takes more effort, more intellegince and more time. I am trying to find how do you distribute your time.
Thanks for everything you have done to this group.
No Problem
-Chandra
No new trades today, but I did place a Limit Order to Short EUR/USD if it reaches 1.3250 again. I rarely trade this pair, but was swayed by:
Short signal per Kevin's method
Double Top or close @ 1.3260 on 2/27, 1.3253 today
Divergence on Momentum indicator--Daily & 240 charts
High for the year is 1.3297, so a fairly small stop is possible
The GBP/JPY Long trade has moved up nicely so far (+101 pips), but this trade's a long way from done, so time will tell.
Hey Yen,
I'm seeing the high for the year at 1.3363 on 12-8-06. Also, I'm not getting a signal on my charts although it's close. I do like that it is forming a doji on the daily today. I would wait for some bearish confirmation to enter, but whatever you do, good luck!
Current trades are looking pretty good at the moment; was hoping for more movement today, but maybe tonight/tomorrow will be enough to cash out.
Good luck,
Kevin
- #138
- Mar 15, 2007 5:22pm Mar 15, 2007 5:22pm
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
Hey Yen,
I'm seeing the high for the year at 1.3363 on 12-8-06. Also, I'm not getting a signal on my charts although it's close. I do like that it is forming a doji on the daily today. I would wait for some bearish confirmation to enter, but whatever you do, good luck!
Current trades are looking pretty good at the moment; was hoping for movement today, but maybe tonight/tomorrow will be enough to cash out.
Good luck,
Kevin
I should have been clearer on my post . . . 1.3297 is the high for the year 2007, not for the last calendar year.
The Short signal for EUR/USD (on my charts) actually was from yesterday, 3/14. I just have no interest in the trade, though, unless I can get in with a minimal stop. I drew a trend line from the high on 12/8/06 down to the high on 2/27, and then today's high just barely penetrated the trend line, but closed right at it, which I'm taking as a bearish sign.
With all that said, an even safer entry would be near this year's high or the 1.3363 high you referred to from December, and especially if bearish confirmation forms as you mentioned.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- #139
- Mar 15, 2007 6:33pm Mar 15, 2007 6:33pm
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
On second thought . . . it appears my EUR/USD analysis may be dead wrong based on the early Asian session. We've already exceeded the 2/27 high of 1.3263.
Well, I guess I now get to see if the 2007 high of 1.3297 on 1/2 will hold as the ceiling.
Humbled by the markets again!
We've already exceeded the 2/27 high of 1.3263.Well, I guess I now get to see if the 2007 high of 1.3297 on 1/2 will hold as the ceiling.
Humbled by the markets again!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
