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  • #53,081
  • Dec 31, 2008 12:59am Dec 31, 2008 12:59am
sweet.. holding this long till next year..
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  • #53,082
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:00am Dec 31, 2008 1:00am
cool just triggered my TP +90pips on the spike up
  • #53,083
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:09am Dec 31, 2008 1:09am
Quoting pippin_min
sweet.. holding this long till next year..
Good trade.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #53,084
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:16am Dec 31, 2008 1:16am
Friends

If you look at last 10 years data - the last trading day of the year has a good 200+ pip range - and 90% of the times - the day's position is in the direction of the last 3 days - so we should have a UP day today - if we can simply look into that statistic as a guide.

There arent too many players in the market today - but year and quater end books squaring will move this pair
  • #53,085
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:18am Dec 31, 2008 1:18am
Quoting gmohata
Friends

If you look at last 10 years data - the last trading day of the year has a good 200+ pip range - and 90% of the times - the day's position is in the direction of the last 3 days - so we should have a UP day today - if we can simply look into that statistic as a guide.

There arent too many players in the market today - but year and quater end books squaring will move this pair
Do you have a link to a site that has 10 years +data? I'm too lazy to google it
Not all sins are created equal
  • #53,086
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:20am Dec 31, 2008 1:20am
Quoting pippin_min
sweet.. holding this long till next year..
I'm with you also holding a small lot going long till next year. Happy new year everyone!
  • #53,087
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:24am Dec 31, 2008 1:24am
Quoting Jay Walker
Do you have a link to a site that has 10 years +data? I'm too lazy to google it
i saw it on my esignal platform - not sure of any website.
  • #53,088
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:41am Dec 31, 2008 1:41am
Quoting Pyramus
I'm with you also holding a small lot going long till next year. Happy new year everyone!
the up movement for today is over. Beware of the down movement , as trichet is going to speak soon and announce a imminent Rate cut. we might see under 1.39
  • #53,089
  • Dec 31, 2008 1:44am Dec 31, 2008 1:44am
that 3 day average also works with most time ranges from 5 min to hours, days ect. most moves average 3 cycles then retrace some. a stagnet period also counts in this evaluation.. whatever time period you chose X 3 then pullback..thats not to say you cant go 6 periods or more without a pullback 3 is just an average.. this may not be noticible much in short frames of time.. all it is is the demand catching up with supply..either by equalizing or passing supply.. either it will resume trend or reverse trend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #53,090
  • Dec 31, 2008 2:37am Dec 31, 2008 2:37am
Quoting lexazver
... Also the proverbial $hit has yet to hit the fan, its not an instant process. at the moment so called flight to safety and deleveraging keeps dollar relatively steady... just my thoughts.
Quoting Galation
...The Chinese have over a trillion dollars of USD's in reserves, many other countries have investments in the USD. There could be a lot of central bank intervention, investing in the dollar to stabalize the world economy.

I believe the USD will be bullish for the first part of 2009, but as China and the rest of the world slowly pull away from the dollar, the USD will weaken.
Quoting Spsantos
Hey ak4x, i don't go with that "Eur bull VS Dollar Bull" war. It'd be simple if only the dollar was weakening, but the fact... is that major economies around the world *are* shrinking...

Overall is that there's no "first world" economy growing right now...

Forgive me, but I'm a forex whore, i'll go with the one that gives me more potential satisfaction
And we have a winner!!! Several of them in fact...

Excellent posts all, these are just some of the the parts I liked best, especially the very last line from spsantos... may none of us ever forget that, at our peril.

See everybody next year...
FUBAR...
  • #53,091
  • Dec 31, 2008 2:47am Dec 31, 2008 2:47am
Quoting Terminale
the up movement for today is over. Beware of the down movement , as trichet is going to speak soon and announce a imminent Rate cut. we might see under 1.39
A cut rate? Now? That would a dramatic closure for the roller coaster year for the Euro.
Maybe such an announcement give the Euro the direction it's looking for.
But where do you take that information from?
  • #53,092
  • Dec 31, 2008 3:04am Dec 31, 2008 3:04am
Quoting Terminale
the up movement for today is over. Beware of the down movement , as trichet is going to speak soon and announce a imminent Rate cut. we might see under 1.39
Can we have some basis for this rumour please?
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #53,093
  • Dec 31, 2008 3:10am Dec 31, 2008 3:10am
Quoting Terminale
the up movement for today is over. Beware of the down movement , as trichet is going to speak soon and announce a imminent Rate cut. we might see under 1.39
FYI - Calendar says Trichet will be speaking at 11am pst / 2pm est
Most brokers will be closing at 1pm est
You will have to wait until Friday 2am when brokers open back up
Then you will be seeing high spreads and high interest rates
Market will be open for only 12 hours - be careful
  • #53,094
  • Dec 31, 2008 3:55am Dec 31, 2008 3:55am
Quoting Yohay
A cut rate? Now? That would a dramatic closure for the roller coaster year for the Euro.
Maybe such an announcement give the Euro the direction it's looking for.
But where do you take that information from?
ECB has to cut it rate if they dont want to be the last ones that do so. Additionally a strong EUR is bad for Europe economy in the current crisis. I think we could see a continuation of the bears in until 1.18 or 1.23.

The euro will lose ground like the GBP did in the last few month.
  • #53,095
  • Edited 4:34am Dec 31, 2008 3:56am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting ak4x
And we have a winner!!! Several of them in fact...

Excellent posts all, these are just some of the the parts I liked best, especially the very last line from spsantos... may none of us ever forget that, at our peril.

See everybody next year...
One thing that I don't think many people understand is that while yes, recession is in everywhere (That is a fact), the situation is US is different to for example euro zone (or china or other countries) in many aspects.

What is different between united states is that US does not face just a recession or depression, US is facing monetary crisis. It's really worth going through money supply statistics to understand the reasons behind this.

Here is the latest information about the issue, M1 multiplier has gone below 1.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/70...Flat-Spin.html

Other USD money supply statistics are interesting too, one was posted here a few days ago. You must understand what happens when banks will start lending again if you want to understand where USD value will go.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=140915

No other economy at the moment (except maybe UK) faces a severe monetary crisis because of this huge financial crisis. Yes, other economies are in deep trouble too but for entirely different reasons. You need to have recessions between growth periods, it's just how the world works.

My bet for the 2009 is that USD will lose its safe haven status. You can already see the comments by chinese central bank about this, comments about how they will move to yuan in their trade [this is bearish to the euro too in some aspects]
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2008/1...dollar-is.html

Then there is this news that came in just today
http://english.aljazeera.net/busines...346616980.html

I can only speculate what that means for the oil trade but I would be very surprised if oil trade would not be moved at least partly to the new currency.

Then there is the question about the oil. IEA has made a large study that says that oil supply will peak at about 2020. This will trigger a huge crisis before the peak because oil price will shoot up to heavens when first supply problems will emerge. Combine this with the fact that biggest oil consumer is US and dollar has been negatively correlated to the price of oil. (This is an event of such scale that its actual impact is really hard to guess but it will definitely be very bad for those countries who need a lot of oil)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...020-prediction

And this is not some tin foil prediction, this is a fact from IEA that has made the first (yes, first ever) global study about worlds oil fields. all former IEA predictions have been just guesses.

So there are my short comments about USD, everyone is feel free to comment on them but please include actual statistics and information, not just guesses.
  • #53,096
  • Dec 31, 2008 4:14am Dec 31, 2008 4:14am
Quoting Terminale
ECB has to cut it rate if they dont want to be the last ones that do so. Additionally a strong EUR is bad for Europe economy in the current crisis. I think we could see a continuation of the bears in until 1.18 or 1.23.

The euro will lose ground like the GBP did in the last few month.
I totally with everything that you wrote. Trichet will have lower the rates soon.
My question is about the timing: Will it be announced today, not at the scheduled rate conferences, and when markets are closed?
  • #53,097
  • Dec 31, 2008 4:40am Dec 31, 2008 4:40am
Quoting Yohay
I totally with everything that you wrote. Trichet will have lower the rates soon.
My question is about the timing: Will it be announced today, not at the scheduled rate conferences, and when markets are closed?
Market useally move long time before the rate is released. I think today he can give us some hints on how deep they will cut it.

I think we could see US unemployment drop to 4xxK or 3xxK again today.
  • #53,098
  • Dec 31, 2008 5:28am Dec 31, 2008 5:28am
still holding short from 1.4188... technically I see short... fundamentally I see long... it would not be a surprise for me if we break support and go to 1.35 in the following days..... but I see that the last bull run has not been rejected.. price is trying to be maintained there in the 1.4x... so it was not a false run to hunt stops... it was a real move. I don't expect a big cut in euro interest... that would bring the euro higher... but meanwhile... we could hunt all the stops and short the euro in these holidays days... before skyrocketing.... time will tell... any direction I would not risk to much until next week.
  • #53,099
  • Dec 31, 2008 5:39am Dec 31, 2008 5:39am
Quoting emda
still holding short from 1.4188... technically I see short... fundamentally I see long... it would not be a surprise for me if we break support and go to 1.35 in the following days..... but I see that the last bull run has not been rejected.. price is trying to be maintained there in the 1.4x... so it was not a false run to hunt stops... it was a real move. I don't expect a big cut in euro interest... that would bring the euro higher... but meanwhile... we could hunt all the stops and short the euro in these holidays days... before skyrocketing.......
Cutting rate will not skyrocket the EURO , but will Sink it. Look at the GBP when it got Cut rate . For me the support will not hold a lot. And i agree with you. Shorting EUR until the end of Q1 2009 is what the smart money are doing right now.
  • #53,100
  • Edited 6:06am Dec 31, 2008 5:47am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting Terminale
Shorting EUR until the end of Q1 2009 is what the smart money are doing right now.
Why guess when you have COT?

Inserted Code
EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                                Code-099741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/22/08                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
      NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
  LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000)                           OPEN INTEREST:      118,546
COMMITMENTS
  30,977   34,622    1,399   49,358   56,185   81,734   92,206   36,812   26,340

CHANGES FROM 12/16/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:       -843)
     179   -2,802      405    1,612    5,751    2,196    3,354   -3,039   -4,197

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
[color=Yellow] [color=Black]   26.1     29.2   [/color][/color]   1.2     41.6     47.4     68.9     77.8     31.1     22.2

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:       98)
      35       30        9       21       24       59       60
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brandon12127