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  • #53,041
  • Dec 30, 2008 6:44pm Dec 30, 2008 6:44pm
The EUR/USD rose the most in almost two weeks as the conflict in the Gaza Strip drove up oil prices. Higher oil prices add concerns about the economic slump in the U.S., which is the world’s largest energy-consuming country.

Crude oil February futures rose for a third day after rising 0.7% to $40.30 a barrel yesterday. After the U.S. currency weakened against 14 of the 16 mostactive currencies, analysts said they expect the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinian will continue to exert pressure on the USD.

The currency also fell against the JPY before the U.S. housing and manufacturing reports this week, that may show the economy slid further into recession. The EUR/USD is up 1.3%, which is the biggest rise since December 17th. The pair trades currently around 1.41 after touching a day-high of 1.4364 yesterday. The USD/JPY also fell to 90.27 from a day-high of 90.96. The USD decreased 0.8% to 1.4512 against the GBP and 0.9% versus the CHF.
Probability Professor
  • #53,042
  • Dec 30, 2008 6:50pm Dec 30, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
at this point oil is the world currency..
Bingo...

And the better we understand that dynamic, the clearer the picture will be, no matter the "current chaos of the day."

The ((practical)) fly in that pudding tho is that the perceived supply and demand structure for oil seems to be so obfuscated by so many things, i'm not yet confident i've figured out how to apply what i think i understand about what i think i know about it...

one cranky word from the right person and it shoots it up significantly, only to plummet a couple hours later when someone else says something soothing.

in any event, it can sure play havoc with position trades on pairs that are closely tied to oil movement.
FUBAR...
  • #53,043
  • Dec 30, 2008 6:51pm Dec 30, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting knuckledrag
First; AK thanks. I like to know what your thinking
Then God save us all....
FUBAR...
  • #53,044
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:02pm Dec 30, 2008 7:02pm
Here's a sincere question for any yoorow bull to take a shot at...

If the USD is so doomed, and it's apparently so obvious that it is according to all the plentiful and mostly well supported points that the yoorow bull camp makes, to the extent that any thoughts by dollar bulls to the contrary almost seem like wishful thinking or that they're in denial or something. I get all that. I think.

So then why is that not a clear enough argument that the yoorow is not already back up in the 1.50's or higher??

In other words, instead of debating the mysterious strength or glaring weaknesses of the USD, tell me why the yoorow isn't already much stronger than it is. That alone smacks of some kind of weakness to me...

Gotta go eat dinner first, be back later.
FUBAR...
  • #53,045
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:03pm Dec 30, 2008 7:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
if there is problems worldwide chf should offer some protection also. if i was any oil producing country i would love for humas to start problems to increase oil price. i bet iran or even sadis are paying for the unrest. spend 1 dollar and make a million.. a pretty good return..U.S. needs to get our head out our butt. the communist have a foothold in south america now and their is a lot of water between U.S. and oil fields. at this point oil is the world currency..
1>Bush family (or company if u like) invade iraq for making its oil deals, do u see other reason ?

2>Can u look at oil price charts just before-during-ending Bush presidency, what do u see ?

3>Did u see how Bush danced with his BEST friends sadis during his visit to them ?

so u have now 3 tools above: Fundamentals + Technicals+ Sentiment

long or short now ??
  • #53,046
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:14pm Dec 30, 2008 7:14pm
Quoting ak4x
Here's a sincere question for any yoorow bull to take a shot at...

If the USD is so doomed, and it's apparently so obvious that it is according to all the plentiful and mostly well supported points that the yoorow bull camp makes, to the extent that any thoughts by dollar bulls to the contrary almost seem like wishful thinking or that they're in denial or something. I get all that. I think.

So then why is that not a clear enough argument that the yoorow is not already back up in the 1.50's or higher??

In other words, instead of debating...
IMO: Because the euro is weak against the chf and this is a function of the european stockmarket (carry trade between Euro and Chf)
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #53,047
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:16pm Dec 30, 2008 7:16pm
Quoting ak4x
Here's a sincere question for any yoorow bull to take a shot at...

If the USD is so doomed, and it's apparently so obvious that it is according to all the plentiful and mostly well supported points that the yoorow bull camp makes, to the extent that any thoughts by dollar bulls to the contrary almost seem like wishful thinking or that they're in denial or something. I get all that. I think.

So then why is that not a clear enough argument that the yoorow is not already back up in the 1.50's or higher??

In other words, instead of debating the...
It is the market building in some eur strenght but waiting for tritchet to cut rates and how much. Then you will see something happen one way or the other. If he only cuts .25 basis points strong eur if he cuts 2% we may see some dollar strenght just due to the fact that the dollar is the goto currency in unstable times.
  • #53,048
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:18pm Dec 30, 2008 7:18pm
Quoting ak4x
Here's a sincere question for any yoorow bull to take a shot at...

If the USD is so doomed, and it's apparently so obvious that it is according to all the plentiful and mostly well supported points that the yoorow bull camp makes, to the extent that any thoughts by dollar bulls to the contrary almost seem like wishful thinking or that they're in denial or something. I get all that. I think.

So then why is that not a clear enough argument that the yoorow is not already back up in the 1.50's or higher??

In other words, instead of debating the...
1. Hedge fund deleveraging > sucking up dollars from the market.
2. Mutual fund baby boomer/panic redemptions acting as further $ sucking mechanism.
3. Euro-zone unrealistically high interest rate bound to go to 0%.
4. Dollar is regarded as safe haven for the time being, much like the CHF.
4. Please feel free to add more...
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #53,049
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:20pm Dec 30, 2008 7:20pm
I live in the UK. The news coming out of the UK and Europe is dire. Today, the FTSE100 index is the worst it has been in 25 years. The general sentiment throughout Europe is the same. USD is weak, EUR is weak, GBP is weak. It may come down to risk aversion. The EUR may be stronger than the USD, but historically people run to the USD.

The Chinese have over a trillion dollars of USD's in reserves, many other countries have investments in the USD. There could be a lot of central bank intervention, investing in the dollar to stabalize the world economy.

I believe the USD will be bullish for the first part of 2009, but as China and the rest of the world slowly pull away from the dollar, the USD will weaken.

Think about it: Oil is traded in USD's, and most commodities and international trade is done is US Dollars. The base currency in the different countries of trade are being sold, and dollars are being bought: therefore, whenever a barrel of oil is traded, it helps strengthen the USD. Since the introduction of the Euro in 1999, Iran stopped trading its oil in the USD. From the year 2000, Iran stopped trading its oil in USD's and started trading in the Euro. Over the past 3 years there has been a clear transition from the USD in oil and international business trade etc.

People will wake up, and will see that the USD is not a good currency to invest in at this time: it has nothing going for it apart from historical sentiment.

I better stop or I will type for hours!
Probability Professor
  • #53,050
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:21pm Dec 30, 2008 7:21pm
Quoting athahira
1>Bush family (or company if u like) invade iraq for making its oil deals, do u see other reason ?

2>Can u look at oil price charts just before-during-ending Bush presidency, what do u see ?

3>Did u see how Bush danced with his BEST friends sadis during his visit to them ?

so u have now 3 tools above: Fundamentals + Technicals+ Sentiment

long or short now ??


It's obvious YOU hate Bush. OK fine. Do you know anything about the future of this pair, or suspect maybe some news event is going to impact the direction of EUR/USD? I love a good game of cross talk, but please who gives a crap about Bush? Bush is out soon and no longer a factor in the world. Find a new reason to hate the USA he is out!
  • #53,051
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:21pm Dec 30, 2008 7:21pm
Quoting ak4x
Here's a sincere question for any yoorow bull to take a shot at...

If the USD is so doomed, and it's apparently so obvious that it is according to all the plentiful and mostly well supported points that the yoorow bull camp makes, to the extent that any thoughts by dollar bulls to the contrary almost seem like wishful thinking or that they're in denial or something. I get all that. I think.

So then why is that not a clear enough argument that the yoorow is not already back up in the 1.50's or higher??



well ,imho , 2000 pips rally that we've seen was the fastest we've seen yet so that gotta mean something for the bulls. Also the proverbial $hit has yet to hit the fan, its not an instant process. at the moment so called flight to safety and deleveraging keeps dollar relatively steady. Of course Europes economy may suffer due to their lack of rapid rate cuts as well and perhaps some are waiting to see how that plays out , i don't know, what I do know is that 2 biggest interbank dealers are bullish on Euro which should mean something also....no?


just my thoughts.
  • #53,052
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:24pm Dec 30, 2008 7:24pm
Hey ak4x, i don't go with that "Eur bull VS Dollar Bull" war. It'd be simple if only the dollar was weakening, but the fact as you know is that major economies around the world *are* shrinking.

I made a post some pages back about the whole de-leveraging process that was triggered by these economies, whose growth was/is greatly supported by DEBT and more DEBT .

Seeing over and over again the same measure from the FED/Central Banks, I guess we all know where this is going.

So the euro isn't back @1.60 or 100.1200 because afaik and you too, it simply doesn't work that way, the economies supporting euro are also in deep trouble, plus we have oil, gold... and other currencies as well(mainly GBP/JPY) that play a part in this overall pretty messed up scheme of things! (ohhh conspiracy theory )

Overall is that there's no "first world" economy growing right now, I myself have been Euro bull until last July, but now all I can say is that i've got no love in forex

Forgive me, but I'm a forex whore, i'll go with the one that gives me more potential satisfaction
Traders are smartasses
  • #53,053
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:26pm Dec 30, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting athahira
1>Bush family (or company if u like) invade iraq for making its oil deals, do u see other reason ?

2>Can u look at oil price charts just before-during-ending Bush presidency, what do u see ?

3>Did u see how Bush danced with his BEST friends sadis during his visit to them ?

so u have now 3 tools above: Fundamentals + Technicals+ Sentiment

long or short now ??
come isnt that going a little to far..next you will tell me he put binladden family back on airplanes after 911..or he gutted regulators department to allow wallstreet to act like druken sailors...or his dad has seccret ties with china allowing them to become a superpower..or his brother neil gets 3k per student enrolled in the no child left behind education... or even cheif justice goes hunting with the fomer vice president of halibuton who made him king. and that haliburton made billions doing business with goverment.. and that he didnt have sex with that women...oopss went to far... no man your out of line.. that is too far..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #53,054
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:39pm Dec 30, 2008 7:39pm
Quoting athahira
2>Can u look at oil price charts just before-during... Bush presidency, what do u see ?
9-11

Quoting klinckphilip
that the dollar is the goto currency in unstable times.
I've believed that for a very long time as well.

Quoting djambazov84
...Euro-zone unrealistically high interest rate bound to go to 0%...

Dollar is regarded as safe haven for the time being, much like the CHF.
good points all, and i agree with you there as well on the interest rate. i guess only time will tell if trichet is telling tales or no...

regarding the swissy, i'm intrigued by discussions that the swissy may actually eclipse the euro over time. i'm not much of a swissy guy myself, but may need to expand my understanding of it in the near future. when all i traded was UJ and GJ, i never bothered about it and never noticed the lack...
FUBAR...
  • #53,055
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:52pm Dec 30, 2008 7:52pm
Quoting knuckledrag
It's obvious YOU hate Bush. OK fine. Do you know anything about the future of this pair, or suspect maybe some news event is going to impact the direction of EUR/USD? I love a good game of cross talk, but please who gives a crap about Bush? Bush is out soon and no longer a factor in the world. Find a new reason to hate the USA he is out!
1.its obvious u did not read the oil charts , and its ur choice .

2. Do you know anything about the future of this pair , who on the earth do ?

3>Find a new reason to hate the USA he is out! and how did u jump to this conclusion ? Actually i dream to have US citizen id lol ..

let me clarify something here: Bush=Bigboys=Big dogs=.... i am not that dump to talk about single man here (its just that he resemble them).

I love BUSH ...hope u r happy now
  • #53,056
  • Dec 30, 2008 7:55pm Dec 30, 2008 7:55pm
just to take your mind of forex for 2 minutes

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=uihJWPWMD20
  • #53,057
  • Dec 30, 2008 8:01pm Dec 30, 2008 8:01pm
going off to sleep
this sucker was looks like after heart attack...
more action in a few hours i suppose
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  • #53,058
  • Dec 30, 2008 8:05pm Dec 30, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting Galation
The EUR/USD rose the most in almost two weeks as the conflict in the Gaza Strip drove up oil prices. Higher oil prices add concerns about the economic slump in the U.S., which is the world’s largest energy-consuming country.

Crude oil February futures rose for a third day after rising 0.7% to $40.30 a barrel yesterday. After the U.S. currency weakened against 14 of the 16 mostactive currencies, analysts said they expect the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinian will continue to exert pressure on the USD.

The currency also fell against...
I am not much of a fundamentalist, but given the current volatility these increases/decreases are mostly noise. I cannot make trading decisions based solely on these factors, and my current analysis of eur/usd contradicts the consensus.
  • #53,059
  • Dec 30, 2008 8:06pm Dec 30, 2008 8:06pm
do your homework on eur/chf im short at1.4926... its knocking on daily,weekly and monthly supports..daily 1.4887 weekly 1.4870 monthy 1.4895 .. worth looking into..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #53,060
  • Dec 30, 2008 8:14pm Dec 30, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting 5ysfx
going off to sleep
this sucker was looks like after heart attack...
more action in a few hours i suppose
Dude
How in the heck can you read that chart?
Looks like a diso light show. Hurt's my eyes.
But, if it works for you - That's Great!

Me I prefer close to naked charts with very little
cluter on it, except maybe my fibs
What works for me may not work for others
Then again I'm only up 4k for the week

Market should be very dull for the rest of the week
Watch out for and be aware of high spreads and
intereston rates on Friday
Be careful and best not to hold open trades

Have a Great New Years Celebration All !!!
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