EOD -1 day hold

Thanks for all your input and thanks for sharing your system QZ I will be looking at it over the next couple days thanks for being so generous

An update

The results for the last signals given by the system on the 12 swaps I follow

usdchf -220
eurusd +220
usdjpy +22
audusd -20
usdcad +149
eurgbp +29
eurjpy +226
gbpjpy +100
gbpchf +225
euraud +146

Dont forgt these are all held for 24hours only

I will be going short tonight on the following 2 as long as the signal is still there tonight

gbpusd
eurchf

I looked at a swap not really traded

usddkk the last signal made 969 pips


Paulus

Hi Paulus

Can you post your rules so far for this system, so it is easier to follow etc.

I know it is work in progress and they are not set in stone, but just how you see it so far.

I am not sure exactly what indicators you are using, perhaps you could clarify what you are using so far?

Thx

Law

Hi Law

The system is simple and works on a similar principle to the eod atr system

Identify a potential trend and identify a potential retracement for entry.

Im not a great fan of ADX but tried one that was sent to me which plotted signal arrows unfortunately it repainted butTodd then kindly posted a none paint version after testing the old one ...so we now have a none repaint ADX indicator that plots arrows for potential long and short areas.

I now have the indicator I need to show me a potential new trend,I then wanted to enter on a retracemnet but didnt want to use fibs or another indicator so I used price itself.

This gives me 3 advantages

 

1. Doesnt complicate things by adding another indicator
2. Gets price to show me the retracemnt
3. Means I always go long on a down candle and short on an up candle which for me is very important as Im only holding for 1 day and If i get the direction right means I get in very close the open of the following day.

Entry

 

1. Wait for an arrow from the ADX indicator
2. If its an up arrow wait for a down day and go long on that down day as far into the day as possible 1min before the close of the candle would be ideal but you could only do this with an EA unless you were single and nocturnal !

Exit

 

1. Same time 24 hours later win lose or draw

Important

 

1. The only time you go short on the same day as the adx signal,is if its given on an up bar which does happen now and then visa versa for longs

Notes

Its important you leave it as long as possible into the day before entering your trade today I posted GBPUSD was a short at this momnet in time it is now not a valid entry we did have an up bar after a down ADX arrow now we have a doji.

Eurchf is still showing an up bar so is valid still atm

I will show 2 live charts one a set up ready for today and another setup which we will have to watch and see.

Hi Paul,

No stops have been posted; is this a no-stop system?

Stop at prior candle high/low or 50% if large candle?

Gray.

we close the next day so no stop employed if want a safety stop you can employ one,but move it well out of the way.

Or use largest ATR over last 10 days perhaps it will have to be an extraordinary move to break that SL ..but the day bar does swing from negative to positive so dont set a stop to tight it will cause a winning trade to become a losing trade

New signals

GBPUSD short 1.4430
EURCHF short 1.4897
USDCAD long 1.253

Paulus

I don't know if we all have different EOD's or what. But I have 2 upcoming trades approaching in approx 50min is my EOD per IBFX platform. They are both long signals on a current down bar.

usd/jpy will be a long
usd/cad also a long

That's the only two adx signals I have on my 8 currencies.
I'm watching.....

e/u
g/u
usd/cad
aud/usd
usd/jpy
usd/chf
eur/jpy
eur/gbp

Thanks Paul,

Considering that some guys are using spread-betting brokers I would definitely use an emergency stop; as their losses are not restricted to their capital deposited with the broker.

IMO an emergency stop should always be used, regardless; placed technically.

Well done for another system.

Happy New Year to you.

Gray.

All this is hugely promising and exciting as we've all discovered - another voice in the chorus of thanks to Paulus!

But I'm confused. Like Paulus I'm in the UK; I use Alpari UK feeds to MT. But I'm not getting any of these signals which Paulus and Todd have reported for tonight. Am I using a different setting for the ADXcrosses perhaps? - the copy I downloaded had a default of 14 and I've left it there (it's the non-repainting version of course). What is everyone else using? What other variables might affect which signals we get?

I haven't had any ADXcrosses signals on GBPUSD since 23/12 (short, and CCI was <0); on USDJPY since 5/11 (!) (short, CCI <0); on AUDUSD since 8/12 (long, CCI hovering very close around 0); on USDCAD since 11/12 (short, but probably invalid as CCI was >0).

Incidentally is anyone using the V-TBv6 indicator as posted by Qwerty777 in post 16? Paulus's post 17 refers to the wick ratios etc which V-TBv6 uses, so it looks as if he was using this indi at that stage, but his updates make it clear that at some time later he changed to the ADXcrosses. V-TBv6 seems to give a lot more signals than ADXcrosses does, and with CCI filtering (as for the unlimited-time EOD system) etc it looks - eyeballing only - as if they might be just as good ones on the whole. Has anyone shown this to be true or untrue, or is there a problem with that indi?

Finally, backtesting, forward testing etc. One or two people have spoken of trying things out on Vhands, which I haven't used; but I can vouch for Trade Simulator which seems to me to come as close to real live trading as anyone could reasonably expect to get. Candle by candle, each one forming naturally, over any period you choose; it's really exactly like live trading except that you choose how fast or slow you want to go and can pause the action whenever you want, and of course you're not risking any money while you experiment.

As well as being a brilliant test-bed, it's great for practice - you can cover a couple of month's-worth of daily candles in a few minutes if you want: much better than hanging around waiting in real time, and forgetting what built up to a good trade and what induced you to take that rubbish trade that you regretted the moment you got into it!

Here's the link to the original posting in FF:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=70742

It's all in the first post of this link. You MUST read the PDF file to learn how to set it up and use it - it simply won't work properly and will be very frustrating indeed if you just try to rely on instinct.

When I get the chance, I might try running a pair for 2-3 months on both ADX and V-TB on TradeSim and compare what the results look like - but if anyone wants to do it first.......

Thanks again Paulus, and everyone else who has helped here. I'm constantly amazed and thrilled by the amount one can learn here, and the help everyone gives so unstintingly, no matter how apparently silly or elementary the questions we learners ask.

Cheers! George

Hello to Paulus and all,

I am reading this thread but I still haven't got it completely. I attach a chart with adx indicator. Can you explain to me how would you trade this period of time?

Thanks,

r.

P.S. I do not have any signal from adx on G/U at the moment.

The GBPUSD is suddenly heading up North.... How do you pinpoint the top when shorting?

geo

Lets see if I can untangle this a bit ..we dont use the CCI for this system.
V-TBv6 repaints so was binned

you wrote - I haven't had any ADXcrosses signals on

GBPUSD since 23/12 - mine was on the 22nd and then all down bars the 30th was the 1st up bar that is the entry

AUDUSD since 8/12 - same as me no signal here since that time

USDCAD since 11/12 - when i took the signal the adx cross was there it has since gone due to the fact that the price droped further and the adx uncrossed and hence the signal disapeared,this is not repianting the signal will never come back its just a case of timing it does happen now and then when a cross depends on just a few pips for it to disapear

Dont forget a system with an 80% strike rate will over time taking 100 signals at a time have a losing streak of 20 in a row that statistic is out there in the ether so money manegment must be employed

Paulus

This system is new in fact so new if it was a human its eyes would only just be open ! lols

Money management

How do we work out our 2.5% if we havnt got a fixed SL ..hmmmmm

1. Perhaps we take the swing hi lo and use that as a potential stop for the MM calculations
2. Perhaps we look at the largest bar over 10 days and use that as our stop..ie.. if the largest bar hi to lo was 300 pips then we use the 300 pips for our MM calculations

Idealy what we want from MM is this

If we have 3 signals and 2 make a little and 1 makes a big loss the big loss must not destroy the wins.

MM can do this a signal with a large stop will be traded on perhaps a mini contract a signal with a small stop will be traded on a full contract if both SL are hit the losses should be approx the same.

We will all get different signals depending on where we are and the time the signals are taken.

When I trade Futures my trading partner had the same pc the clocks were adjusted every day just before trading we have the same plateform and the data feed feed came from the same broker on the same server and we traded from the same account

We still ended up with different signals !

Paulus

I think that adxcrosses and adxcrossesNon-repainting indicators are the same,only different is that the arrow appears close of the candle if u use adxcrosses and if u use the other it appears opening of current candle,so they give the signal at the same time.

Oblo

Hope this helps

ET

If you decide to place orders at 10pm then you go by what the candle is doing at that time.

Hope that helps

paulus

Thanks Paulus - clear and happy now!

I think my confusion over V-TBv6 arose because
i) in post 11 Dezil discovered that it repainted
ii) in post 13 he says "if you set "UseNew" parametr to false you will see all signals without repaint as i think", and no one has posted since then to suggest that that doesn't actually stop it repainting
iii) in post 24 you said you do use CCI as a filter - but obviously this only applied because you were still persevering with V-TB.

So that's why I continued trying it alongside the newer ADXcrosses system.

ADXcrosses combined with waiting for the right colour candle certainly does show great results - dare I say, even better than I have experienced with your original EOD system?

As you explain, however, MM is the real key, whatever entry/exit system one uses. It took me a couple of years to learn that (why? it seems so obvious once you have learnt it), but once I did, my overall results straightaway became far more consistent and profitable! And after all, that's what it's all about.

Thanks for your help, and best of luck in 2009! - George

Hi Paulus,
are u still in short for GU?

yes ..its a loser atm

P

Though the GU is in a downtrend overall, the 4H and 1H showed an uptrend. On the 1H charts, the pair has broken the Daily R2 which happens to be the FIB 100% Level. Maybe its due for a correction to the upside....

Hello
Anyone has the ADX cross indicator(preferably the non-repaint version) with an alarm ?