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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,581
  • Dec 16, 2008 10:10pm Dec 16, 2008 10:10pm
Still in it to win it. If it breaks the last high from a few weeks ago then the next support would be the daily 100 ema. The USD was an artificial rally as many funds had to liquidate and reverse positions. It's time to sell the hell out of the dollar again against most currencies. So my strategy with A.U is Buy, hold (weeks, months) sell. Easy.
Just Trade It
  • #2,582
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:43pm Dec 16, 2008 11:43pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Still in it to win it. If it breaks the last high from a few weeks ago then the next support would be the daily 100 ema. The USD was an artificial rally as many funds had to liquidate and reverse positions. It's time to sell the hell out of the dollar again against most currencies. So my strategy with A.U is Buy, hold (weeks, months) sell. Easy.
Yep, entered again and bigger position. Pyramid, Ponzi, whatever you call it.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,583
  • Dec 17, 2008 5:47am Dec 17, 2008 5:47am
Quoting DutchTrader
Yep, entered again and bigger position. Pyramid, Ponzi, whatever you call it.

Ponzing your position? Or I'm going to Madoff into this trade.
Just Trade It
  • #2,584
  • Dec 17, 2008 5:54am Dec 17, 2008 5:54am
It's putting in the right shoulder, 15M chart, if anyone is interested. Could be ugly for south.
  • #2,585
  • Dec 17, 2008 6:06am Dec 17, 2008 6:06am
Quoting Jade Gate
It's putting in the right shoulder, 15M chart, if anyone is interested. Could be ugly for south.

Right shoulder needs to be a little bit higher. It could still go south, but it will most likely be a correction and an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price. Wait and see what N.Y does.
Just Trade It
  • #2,586
  • Dec 17, 2008 6:15am Dec 17, 2008 6:15am
I went short when the collection of wicks appeared on the 5m around .6960, 15M chart confirmed, hammer, and head n shoulders.... cruising.
  • #2,587
  • Dec 17, 2008 11:17am Dec 17, 2008 11:17am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Still in it to win it. If it breaks the last high from a few weeks ago then the next support would be the daily 100 ema. The USD was an artificial rally as many funds had to liquidate and reverse positions. It's time to sell the hell out of the dollar again against most currencies. So my strategy with A.U is Buy, hold (weeks, months) sell. Easy.
took my profits and ran didn't like the correction
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,588
  • Dec 17, 2008 11:46am Dec 17, 2008 11:46am
Quoting DutchTrader
took my profits and ran didn't like the correction

I loaded up one more long, last one netted 75 pips then got out due to CHF and EU hitting targets. (signaling the end of the move) Will wait for a meaningful correction before I go back in. Or another impulsive move to the upside or downside.
Just Trade It
  • #2,589
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:00pm Dec 17, 2008 12:00pm
I'm looking for a CHF correction towards 1.12 then below 1.00 to parity versus the US Peso. That will coincide with a runup to 76.00 and 82.00 in Aud. Thoughts?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,590
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:06pm Dec 17, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I'm looking for a CHF correction towards 1.12 then below 1.00 to parity versus the US Peso. That will coincide with a runup to 76.00 and 82.00 in Aud. Thoughts?

I am looking for a correction as well. To what level I don't know, but dollar strength is over. AUD will go up with commodities so keep an eye on aluminum and iron ore. I will explain more later but I have to go to a friends for dinner. See ya
Just Trade It
  • #2,591
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:14pm Dec 17, 2008 1:14pm
DOnt run against the trend.

CUrrent view on AU:
Major trend is bull. We either shooting up, or maybe have some retracement.

Suggestion:
Buy on DIP.
  • #2,592
  • Dec 17, 2008 4:28pm Dec 17, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I am looking for a correction as well. To what level I don't know, but dollar strength is over. AUD will go up with commodities so keep an eye on aluminum and iron ore. I will explain more later but I have to go to a friends for dinner. See ya
Why do you see commodity prices rising - just because of the weak dollar? I can understand the interest rate advantage of Aussie vs $ for the moment, but that's bound to deteriorate as RBA will definitely cut again, having a lot of room left to operate. As for metal ore demand rising, well... I don't see that happening very soon with more and more global economies turning sour.
  • #2,593
  • Dec 17, 2008 4:57pm Dec 17, 2008 4:57pm
Owning the market.
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  • #2,594
  • Dec 17, 2008 11:38pm Dec 17, 2008 11:38pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I am looking for a correction as well. To what level I don't know, but dollar strength is over. AUD will go up with commodities so keep an eye on aluminum and iron ore. I will explain more later but I have to go to a friends for dinner. See ya
When the big boys renegotiate the Iron Ore prices next year the price is tipped to drop 50% to 60%

GP
"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"
  • #2,595
  • Dec 18, 2008 8:36am Dec 18, 2008 8:36am
Quoting Subdude
Why do you see commodity prices rising - just because of the weak dollar? I can understand the interest rate advantage of Aussie vs $ for the moment, but that's bound to deteriorate as RBA will definitely cut again, having a lot of room left to operate. As for metal ore demand rising, well... I don't see that happening very soon with more and more global economies turning sour.

I was thinking more long term. Commodities can still go down and I will trade it that way if it does, but my opinion is that comm. will go up. I don't trade my opinion, I trade which ever direction the markets go. I only trade my opinion when it is proven to be right. IMO commodities will go up not because of private business spending but from government spending. Obama has said his new deal plan will invest on infrastructure which is nice, but lets look at this from a bigger picture, Almost every industrialized nation is going through the same infra. crisis where they can't grow any bigger without new roads, bridges, rail lines, airports you name it every country needs it, and who needs it the most? China, India, Brazil, and hopefully Africa can get it's shit together soon because the growth rate there can explode. And how will the governments get this money? By printing more of it causing inflation and higher prices. IMO
But as always I could be wrong, and if I am then I got a plan for that as well.
Just Trade It
  • #2,596
  • Dec 18, 2008 1:31pm Dec 18, 2008 1:31pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Almost every industrialized nation is going through the same infra. crisis where they can't grow any bigger without new roads, bridges, rail lines, airports you name it every country needs it, and who needs it the most? China, India, Brazil, and hopefully Africa can get it's shit together soon because the growth rate there can explode. And how will the governments get this money? By printing more of it causing inflation and higher prices. IMO
But as always I could be wrong, and if I am then I got a plan for that as well.
Hasn't there just been a release about a dramatic exports level drop in China? In today's interconnected world, a recession in the West inevitably leads to a drop in demand for imports from the East, which in turn dictates that adjustments be made to demand levels for raw materials.
  • #2,597
  • Dec 29, 2008 6:49pm Dec 29, 2008 6:49pm
Been relatively stable compared to EURO and they are doing relatively well on the economic front.

Opinions?

Disclosure, Long .6885
  • #2,598
  • Dec 30, 2008 2:47am Dec 30, 2008 2:47am
Carry trade play thing at present.

When traders return and market is fully liquid again in the New Year may be a better time to assess it's true value. While commodities are low, it isn't likely to see much movement, other than being bought up for short cover and then sold.

Tight stops methinks.... there are better places to make profits at present. Haven't traded it since before Christmas.
  • #2,599
  • Dec 30, 2008 1:18pm Dec 30, 2008 1:18pm
p.s. it will be interesting to watch the Aud in the last session of the week this week... whether or not it gets loaded up for Euro shorts the week after when market is fully liquid again. May be a brief time frame long opportunity that will extend beyond it's current tight range. (?)
  • #2,600
  • Dec 30, 2008 5:55pm Dec 30, 2008 5:55pm
Two scenarios... less credit issued because we have just had the big $1,000 per child + everyone on pensions govt cash hand-out (early Dec)... or more credit because Aussie's are addicted to credit as a means of managing their ever-increasing debt. Either way, the number won't reflect spending or confidence (imo). How market receives or interprets it is another matter.
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