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Daily candle chart

  • #3,821
  • Dec 22, 2008 12:31pm Dec 22, 2008 12:31pm
hi dear all
i have the liberty to say that i leg your pardon.not long ago (3 or 4 week ago)
i have seen a nice bearish on-neck pattern in the weekly candle chart USD/YEN .all the same , but i have not said to dear all.
sorry.
let us now turn to present conditions sushi , only i can see plugh the sand by bear camp.in the main , this is to the view that the bears are unable to hold price under 89.20 . on the other part , we can easily see a tweezers bottom that is forming .
in sooth ,we must have pay attention to liquidation positions by other traders.
in my mind maybe we can see 93 or 94 and ......
also beforehand
i wish with ones whole heart dear all a happy new year and with good health.
best regards
hussin
  • #3,822
  • Dec 23, 2008 6:15am Dec 23, 2008 6:15am
All the best Hussin and Peaches, and happy new year to you
Thanks for your help this year.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #3,823
  • Dec 23, 2008 7:39am Dec 23, 2008 7:39am
Bones, Hussin and others ...

Good to see this thread is still thriving. I can see Peaches has kept the action going especially while Hussin is stuck with a 56k modem

I shall be dropping in regularly again, now I'm back home with time on my hands to trade.
  • #3,824
  • Dec 23, 2008 8:13am Dec 23, 2008 8:13am
Quoting hussin naiji
hi dear all
i have the liberty to say that i leg your pardon.not long ago (3 or 4 week ago)
i have seen a nice bearish on-neck pattern in the weekly candle chart USD/YEN .all the same , but i have not said to dear all.
sorry.
let us now turn to present conditions sushi , only i can see plugh the sand by bear camp.in the main , this is to the view that the bears are unable to hold price under 89.20 . on the other part , we can easily see a tweezers bottom that is forming .
in sooth ,we must have pay attention to liquidation positions by other traders.
in...
Peace be upon husin,
I dont know if you still remember me.
Months ago I ask you a question about trading candlestick patterns on H4.
1.Can you tell me which pattern suits the best for H4?(entry and exit)
2.I also want to know is it safe to only trade candle pattern without other filter?As I know candle first enemy is news..I am not really good in candlestick pattern.
3.Most of candle just tell the entry how to set SL or TP.And as I know you seldomly used fixed SL..use the tail of candle?
P.s:I trade candle comfirmed by other filter infact candle not my main analyzing tool.
Thank you for your support,
B@bytrader
  • #3,825
  • Dec 23, 2008 9:35am Dec 23, 2008 9:35am
Quoting hussin naiji
hi dear all
i have the liberty to say that i leg your pardon.not long ago (3 or 4 week ago)
i have seen a nice bearish on-neck pattern in the weekly candle chart USD/YEN .all the same , but i have not said to dear all.
sorry.
let us now turn to present conditions sushi , only i can see plugh the sand by bear camp.in the main , this is to the view that the bears are unable to hold price under 89.20 . on the other part , we can easily see a tweezers bottom that is forming .
in sooth ,we must have pay attention to liquidation positions by other traders.
in...
Hussin,Peaches and other members...
Merry Xmas and happy new year
Best wishes and lucky to all
  • #3,826
  • Dec 23, 2008 10:31am Dec 23, 2008 10:31am
Hi Baby trader, sure I remember you, I hope hussin got time and
internet connection for a second additional answer.

I personaly think, best trades - if you like on 4 h chart-, is, if you take the trade in the direction of the daily and (if possible) weekly direction of the price. I don´t enter a trade if a patten appear (the last candle is finished), I often try to wait, that price goes maximum against my pattern, then I enter in the direction of the pattern. This waiting for a pullback sometimes is good, sometimes there is no pullback

And most of the time its hard to take a good entry, if you are not able to watch the priceaction the whole day, like me.

Best patterns are most reliable patterns, like bullish or bearish engulfing candles, or three inside up or three outsite up (same for down). Hammer and shooting stars are also good. study here:

http://www.candlesticker.com/Bullish.asp

First MOST importend from my experience is, WHERE this pattern appears:

It is good, if they appear near a round number, fibo-levels or pivot support/resistance. See attached example shooting star near fibo level for eur/usd. My SL was a bit above the last previous highs (if you look at the left part of the chart).

Second MOST importend is, that pattern work best at the end of a trend (example is geppy in october). They work pretty bad, if we have a ranging time period.

Other filters i try to use is VSA (still learning), and 5 min RSI overbought or oversold for exit a trade. But I`am only able to do so, if I´m sitting at the computer at this moment (coincident).

Nice trading


Quoting B@by trader
Peace be upon husin,
I dont know if you still remember me.
Months ago I ask you a question about trading candlestick patterns on H4.
1.Can you tell me which pattern suits the best for H4?(entry and exit)
2.I also want to know is it safe to only trade candle pattern without other filter?As I know candle first enemy is news..I am not really good in candlestick pattern.
3.Most of candle just tell the entry how to set SL or TP.And as I know you seldomly used fixed SL..use the tail of candle?
P.s:I trade candle comfirmed by other filter infact candle...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #3,827
  • Dec 23, 2008 10:44am Dec 23, 2008 10:44am
I wish all of you merry xmas and a good new year.

I think, these are very very special times, the big guys and banks
need a lot of money, so they are liquidating positions and are moving
the market.

I`am not sure, when these big crises will be over, but we will know, if
we see the weekly and monthly candles.

Best opportunity after end of crises will be trades with a bullish euro, bearish usd, aud and yen. So crosses like eur/usd, eur/jpy, aud/usd, aud/jpy will be good trading opportunitys after end of crises imho.

Watching the dollar index might be a good indicator for seeing a turnaround
pretty early, also a good signal for a change will be the interest-rate decissons of the fed, ecb, boj, boe (rising interest rates).

But this may take months or maybe years.

Wish you all the best
  • #3,828
  • Edited 5:14pm Dec 27, 2008 3:26pm | Edited 5:14pm
Hi peaches,

talking about the end of the crisis is way too early. the world economy is in big trouble. its like a fat loaded oiltank on the sea, while we are sitting in a fast motorboat riding the ocean, easily changing direction, the oiltanker needs space around him to navigate and is slow. what we perceived in the last years, accelerating in the last months, is just the oiltanker, slowly adapting to its new course, whether we pull him back on track or not in the future.

usd-index
prev. weekly candle is a long hammer followed by low volume week.
- look for close below 80 and if it thereafter reaches the weekly hammer low (77.69)
- watch the reaction of the upper resistance around 84.

japan got hit hard, if you go quick through the latest monthly report of the boj or any news
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisak...n/gp/index.htm
they're talking about buying commercial paper (the boj), as the companies have to borrow money from the banks the old way. though the inflation rate is very low, mainly due to the oil-'crash' and cheaper imports because of the stronger yen. shirakawa wants to inflate, if he just could (0.30 -> 0.10) but would there be buyers of exports if the yen depreciates?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ayVqZGwUdJIY

yen
- advance block weekly candle, buyers losing power


Quoting peaches
I wish all of you merry xmas and a good new year.

I think, these are very very special times, the big guys and banks
need a lot of money, so they are liquidating positions and are moving
the market.

I`am not sure, when these big crises will be over, but we will know, if
we see the weekly and monthly candles.

Best opportunity after end of crises will be trades with a bullish euro, bearish usd, aud and yen. So crosses like eur/usd, eur/jpy, aud/usd, aud/jpy will be good trading opportunitys after end of crises imho.

Watching the dollar...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD 081227 W1.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XJY 081227 W1.png Size: 26 KB
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #3,829
  • Dec 28, 2008 1:58pm Dec 28, 2008 1:58pm
in this inflating environment, which currency will be strongest? the euro could be one possibility, the pound is fighting against the weakening economy with heavy inflation, other countries in the euro-area like italy, having problems on their own, do not have this option. would that mean, that the stronger countries in the euro-area can help the euro stay above other currencies, because the ecb is not as much under pressure?

on the daily chart, the euro broke through the consolidation phase between october and november until stopped by the yearly open, surrounded by strong S/R, with help from bulls exhaustion.
it found resistance below around 1.38 and, maybe after a sideways-trend (low volume), it could become support.
if it breaks below then there is strong resistance waiting at fibo .618 + S/R from the consolidation phase and other incidents 2007 on the way up.
if it breaks through the weak resistance above, there will be other resistance waiting, so i dont expect a yearly doji, more a sidewaystrend going into 2009.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 081228 D1.png Size: 21 KB
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #3,830
  • Dec 28, 2008 2:36pm Dec 28, 2008 2:36pm
hi
at first hand,again i wish you a happy new year.also i will try for to place a higher level candlestick analysis (in form professional)than the past year.
best regards
hussin
  • #3,831
  • Dec 28, 2008 3:33pm Dec 28, 2008 3:33pm
in the monthly candle chart ,in terms of candlestick formations,that which we can see a defective identical three crows bearish pattern.
if we have pay attention to the third crow ,why the third crow is longer than other crows?
after breakdown monthly trend line we can see enter new sellers (sell orders).
this is reason for length more than the third crow.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #3,832
  • Dec 28, 2008 3:41pm Dec 28, 2008 3:41pm
then we can see a three river morning star pattern. in the main a three river morning star pattern is a bottom reversal signal.
yes ,it is a soft snap this definition for recognition criteria this pattern. but im not agree for a bottom reversal .only and only reason appear this pattern is a pullback.
attention to close monthly (below monthly trend line).
in fact we are seeing a false three river morning star pattern .
beware of the wolf in sheeps cloting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #3,833
  • Dec 28, 2008 4:18pm Dec 28, 2008 4:18pm
in the weekly candle chart EURUSD ,we have seen a good work by a bullish inverted hammer pattern and then a bullish three white soldiers but bulls have failed for hold price above monthly trend line .
in fact this long upper wick is signals strong selling pressure in the market .
maybe the bullish three white soldiers is an undeveloped version of the bullish advance block pattern
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #3,834
  • Dec 28, 2008 5:30pm Dec 28, 2008 5:30pm
Good analysis Hussin,
the 61fib prooved great resistance as well, a move lower still possible.
Attached Image
  • #3,835
  • Dec 28, 2008 7:04pm Dec 28, 2008 7:04pm
Hi Hussin,

thanks for your charts, they gave me new insight, wishing you well, a happy new year to all, peaches

on the performance chart for 2008 we see

Euro & Dollar moving against each other
Euro & Dollar converge in december
Euro & Gold moving together
Euro, Dollar, Gold near break even
Gold strength since HL in december
Pound exhaustion since november
Euro & Pound diverge since november
Yen @ LTL in uptrend
Yen & Dollar diverge since december
Dow exhaustion since october
Oil new LL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PERF 081229 D250.png Size: 29 KB
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #3,836
  • Dec 29, 2008 11:12am Dec 29, 2008 11:12am
Quoting silverheat
Hi Hussin,

thanks for your charts, they gave me new insight, wishing you well, a happy new year to all, peaches

on the performance chart for 2008 we see

Euro & Dollar moving against each other
Euro & Dollar converge in december
Euro & Gold moving together
Euro, Dollar, Gold near break even
Gold strength since HL in december
Pound exhaustion since november
Euro & Pound diverge since november
Yen @ LTL in uptrend
Yen & Dollar diverge since december
Dow exhaustion since october
Oil new LL
nice post, is it a software?
  • #3,837
  • Dec 29, 2008 2:04pm Dec 29, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting mcfbcmnfsz1
nice post, is it a software?
hi mcf,

this is the performance chart on stockcharts.com (inverted for better colors)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$XJY,$USD,$XBP,$XEU,$WTIC,$INDU,$GOLD

chf -> $XSF
cad -> $CDW
aud -> $XAD

keep in mind the currencies are not quoted against the dollar but a currency-basket.
i interpret them with convergence/divergence/sync with two or more indices and overall strength (trend)
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #3,838
  • Dec 29, 2008 2:35pm Dec 29, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting silverheat
hi mcf,

this is the performance chart on stockcharts.com (inverted for better colors)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$XJY,$USD,$XBP,$XEU,$WTIC,$INDU,$GOLD

chf -> $XSF
cad -> $CDW
aud -> $XAD

keep in mind the currencies are not quoted against the dollar but a currency-basket.
i interpret them with convergence/divergence/sync with two or more indices and overall strength (trend)
thanx silver and other for üosting and charts. I hope you have had a nice christmess.

to add something here, the dollar index is not only quoted against a basket of other currencys, these other currences are weighted inside the basket. The euro for example makes 50 % of the weight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Dollar_Index

The dollar index has a daily doji today, I woulld not be sureprised if it turns bullish with the beginning of the new year.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$usd

The yen index might form a daily bottom at the moment, I would not be surprised if we see a bullish yen in the new year, and maybe a double top in january

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XJY
  • #3,839
  • Dec 29, 2008 2:41pm Dec 29, 2008 2:41pm
Quoting hussin naiji
then we can see a three river morning star pattern. in the main a three river morning star pattern is a bottom reversal signal.
yes ,it is a soft snap this definition for recognition criteria this pattern. but im not agree for a bottom reversal .only and only reason appear this pattern is a pullback.
attention to close monthly (below monthly trend line).
in fact we are seeing a false three river morning star pattern .
beware of the wolf in sheeps cloting
nice chart hussin !

I ask myself where your targets come from, is it pip counting ?

We now have very good short entrys for eur/usd and eur/yen on my charts.

My longterm forecast (targets) are 1.18 or 1.12 for the eur/usd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #3,840
  • Dec 29, 2008 2:50pm Dec 29, 2008 2:50pm
notice daily shooting star on eur/jpy.

look, price bouncing between 100 % and 138.2 % monthly fibo level.

My targets is the 161.8 % fibo extension level (break of 138.2 before )
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjen.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjenlongterm.gif Size: 19 KB
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