Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

hmm.. interesting. Thanks.

Actually what I miss a bit in most threads are the failure stories - with the proper charts it looks all so clear and easy doesn't it.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif


EUR/CAD -- just did not manage to take profit (TP was 3 PIPS - but EUR/Cad spread is around 12 nmot sure what it was at this early morning) - and bum got 60 PIPs Stop Loss Hit just to retreat immidiately.

This is on a 1 TF-group.

Anyway - I think to give others also a fair impression what can happen - It is good to show successes and failures.

Thats a good point MJ - Most threads will give an illusion as to the real success rate of a system....

The people who had/have succesful trades will be quick to post a chart and picture "bragging" (in a way) about their trade - when the 10 people who lost trades "bragging" about it will be the last thing on their minds and so they won't post the trade they lost on...

In the end we are left with a whole lotta winners and very few losers being posted creating this sort of illusion. It happens in all threads and is a very good point to make.

I think this is a big trap of most threads

Just my opinion anyway

MJ,
I would not touch any pairs with spread of more than 5 pips using the Spud method. I would be very interested to know the performance if you could take out all the pairs with more than 5 pips spread from you data and do a re-assessment of the performance. Hope it is not too much bot work.

I sure can do that.


But I think it is wiser to wait a bit longer and see how things go - as the first statistic was just about 10 or so hours - which in fact is not really to be called a proper statistic at all for FX trading.


Just for the first tests I left all of the settings for all 4 pairs the same.

About the Pair - well I properly would not life trade EUR/CAD with this spread compared to my TP - but would adjust a TP to an average of a pairs daily or hourly or what every move.


anyway - overnight there was not much as my Weekend order blocking stops at 1 GMT on Mondays.

Doing some x-mas shopping (like the good food - before the stores are empty)and then check what happened to my 36 Fx-co-workers.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Same settings as at the one from only 20081219: adding the new sessions


Trading Sessions:
20081219 – 08:33:00 20081219 – 13:15:00
20081219 – 13:48:00 20081219 – 19:00:00
20081222 – 01:00:00 20081222 – 06:00:00
20081222 – 07:53:00 20081222 – 17:00:00

Total 36 bots over 4 pairs (EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDJPY, EURCAD):

* TP: 289 / SL: 37

Percentage:

* TP: 88.65 % / SL: 11.35 %

Overall WORST system: based on the mechanical rules:
M5 Entries:
5 PIP TP or close by present and next higher TF-group Risk
assessment 60% or more (SL 100 PIPS)

* TP: 50 / SL: 17 || TP: 74.63 % / SL: 25.37 %

Overall BEST system: base on 16 Essential Risk assessments:
M1 Entries:
3 PIP TP (SL 60 PIPS)

* TP: 70 / SL: 3 || TP: 95.89 % / SL: 4.11 %

Overall WORST Pair: EURUSD

* TP: 97 / SL: 18 || TP: 84.35 % / SL: 15.65 %

Overall BEST Pair: AUDJPY

* TP: 52 / SL: 2 || TP: 96.3 % / SL: 3.7 %

All together good day: with more than 97 % average winning success.

Note:

*Mechanical System: Still the worst system
*EUR/USD still the worst Pair

*AUD/JPY still the best Pair
*The overall best system is a new one: a different one min entry than last time.


* from all 9 different system there is no one which would have managed (over all 4 pairs) till now the required 96 % TP

* From all 4 Pairs (average of 9 systems per pair) only Aud/JPY would have managed the needed more 96 % TP to be profitable

PAIRS with 100 % TP systems

EUR/USD: 2 x
USD/CHF: 6 x
AUD/JPY: 8 x (all systems except the mechanical one)
EUR/CAD: 5 x

So till now it's interesting!!

MJ



Based on this data: the overall performance has improved but would be still a disaster. (this set-up needs about 96 % success)

Positive note: I managed for only today more than 97 %.

Also for instant I had one system with 13 TP || 1 SL which is a success from about 92.86 % and through the basic UnitSize adjustment I would have been still a little bit profitable.

Sadly I did not get around to be ready for the new improved Bot 3 version to start running. I got caught up in a idea in improving my already excellent Bot Scheduling system. So this was what I did most today. - which means I will let the same old 36 Bots continue over night.

For those interested: I have a scheduler system which allows nearly anything: but to avoid to much data fetching with a Bot which runs seldom ( I have some systems which run just once a week or once a day) I developed a system to sleep and just the data fetch processes wake up some seconds before the main Bot has to run again. So I improved the exactness of this waking up of the extra helper processes.

my present bot system looks like that:

1 Bot Feches rates for all
1 Bot fetches Interest Rates for all

Each Main Bot system has 3 processes: The Main Bot and two Fetch Helper who fetch AccountState and OrderStates

Behind that lays an own trading system with MoneyManagement and some indicators, scheduler system - order blocking and more ... (it all started already a couple of years ago and was over time extended, improved, rewritten ...)

Not talking into account the Basic background system: For a Bot implementation: Spud's MTF Stochastic ideas was until now the most complicated Bot I did (which does not mean by itself because it is complicated it will be more successful as one of the more simple ones ;-) -- But let's hope so !!!




MJ

MJ,

I'am finding your trade studies very interesting, however I'am
confused on what indicators you are using and what the settings
are?

Are you using Spuds mtf ( 1hr, 30 min, 15 min, 5 min) stoch 14-1-1
or are you using the 6-1-1//24-1-1 rope settings?

Could you please explain your set-up and different settings?
I really appreciate your studies and all your back and forward testings.

Thanks

snarlyjack

hi snarlyjack,

to keep it simple: if you read my postings you will see that I implemented a very freely configurable system based on the main MTF Ideas as presented so nicely by Spud. So at the moment I just play with different options and combinations - to check for stability of my program and to get some kind of feeling (statistic) if there is a real chance to be profitable using my automatic possibilities.

I will yet not get into exact setups (as I have different)

But one thing I'm checking is for instance: I've got the feeling that 'late entries' be it because of over filtering or different stochastic settings - might not be the best in the long run ...

Anyway - I'm not the real expert in MTF as I got just involved a month ago.

But what I can say from all I read and saw and the little I tested so far:
For a fully automatic system of it - it will not be easy to be substantially profitable (I'm not looking for 10 % return a year - there are other ways to get such).

Having said that, I saw also a lot of good signs to improve on - which gives me enough hope to invest some more valuable time.

I know this is not exactely you where asking: read up some of my postings and you will get a feeling of where I'm.

MJ

TOGETHER WE ARE STRONG !

I was thinking about could we improve our grasp of Spud's MTF ideas.


I personally would profit and properly you too - if many of us,
who are seriously trying to get a hand on Spud's system could team up together in the beginning of the NEW YEAR.

Of course most appreciated would be if Spud himself would also join.

Basic idea: why not let all of us trade the best we can

Each one of us is different - comes with personal abilities - past experiences and so on to the market.

Instead of setting up 'fixed rules - or new ideas for all' - why not let all of us trade the best we can based more or less on Spud's ideas.

Some might be more into Escalator to Pips, others more into Elastic back snaps, others like more the 5, 3,3 settings than the 14,3,3.

Some might prefer filters to avoid early entries which might turn bad - others might prefer early entries.


Compare where we are: this would be in my point the beneficial part of teaming up together.

Well, I believe each one of us tries to trade as best as we can - but if we could compare our process (NOT in a competition style but in a educational style) I would find this benefits:

e.g

* Miss XXXX might have a success rate of 95 % and her account might have grown 10 % because of sensitive chosen Unit sizes.

* My success rate could be in the same time 79 % and my account could be at 0.5 % profit in the same time.


If I could compare which trade I took and which Miss XXXX - wow I could see that somwhow not the MTF indicator idea is not ok - but that I do not have the right grasp on it yet.

If on the other hand all of us show negative signs maybe we did not get Spud's point at all - or we can conclude that something very important in his explanation is still missing. (of course it would be wonderful if Spud joins such an effort and we could also compare our trades to his).


How to do it:

What I would have in mind, that al of us who like the idea open up a

1. same size account
2. same homecurrency account
3. start trading at the same day
4. to keep it more simple: use only the same Pair to trade

and than each one provides a daily (or what we decide) feedback on:

1. Trades (like a transaction log)
2. Account Statement (like current Balance)
3. maybe also 1 or 2 screenshots with the Trades for easier visualisation
4. GMT Time offset - so that anyone can check for themself

So when I see that sarah2002, CindyXXXX, Spudfyre, LuboLabo, Harry123, jdcompute or who ever might join does well - I can check back how many Units they took at what time - how was the Stochastic situation ect .


Until now we had a wonderful sharing from Spud - but I don't know who else is using the idea profitable and especially not to which extend (or have a transaction log I can see myself what was the situation that person took the trade ect...)



If anyone would be seriously interested - let me know.

Than we have to decide with Spud - if it would be better to do it in a separate thread or use this existing - like an added documentation.


MJ



PS: Properly in this way - we would be more successful than having fixed rules - as we would get a joined 'brain indicator' included all our weaknesses and strengthens.

Not many who share and discuss there system might do this - but properly it's worth the effort as Spud's communityhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

in his words:

'Learning to write our own checks' - maybe some of us do that already but want to write bigger once'

Spud and MJ,

Here is Spud's system that I'am currently testing and it seems to be working
pretty good, but I'am still tweeking.

Manual trading:

1). 5m chart. (only 1 chart and time frame).
2). Spuds stoch rope system (6-1-1---24-1-1).
3). a crossover sma system on the price.
a). 2 sma, hloc/4.
b). 4 or 5 sma, hloc/4.
c). 30sma hloc/4 for the trend, don't trade against.

What I have found is, when the stoch's start to break down / up and
we get a crossover of the 2sma across the 5sma the move seem to
go in our direction...I'am using the turn of the stoch's as my exit.
It's more of a scalping system but it is very accurate.

Thanks everyone!

snarlyjack

excellent snarlyjack,

That's just what I thought. we are all coming with different background and liking to the trading platform and if we could join up together for some time everyone will profit.

(for instance I do not uses any SMA at this system - I started a trend system based on WMA before I got got involved on MTF Stochastic. (So I did not completely finish it but it looked in the first tests quite fine and properly I will come back to it someday to complete it)

Because: even though you share about being very accurate but how do you know if it could be not much better (except by 100 % accuracy and then it could be still more fruitful e.g: with longer TP settings)


by the way snarlyjack, (at this is nothing personal at all) but 'very accurate' what does that mean: if one tells some people one has a 90 % accurate entry signal it may sound for some impressive - fact is isolated from certain other issues it does not mean anything. to say it a bit extreme: one has a 100 % accurate signal: if one just enters one trade and luckily got it right. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif That's why so much rubbish is around. Anyone can present a system based on fitting charts and indicator setting from past selected data.

Of course people like Spud who share freely there trading thoughts do not HAVE to prove anything - but as much as I appropriate Spud's effort
and not being personal: I would like to see live trading over some time.

It is fine for presentation to use fitting charts and I can not comment Spud enough for what he did:

but without being rude I would say in the words of the movie 'Jerry Maguire': 'Show me the money 'http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif




That is why I would invite you to join up sometime in beginning of New Year like I proposed - and maybe I learn something from you - or you learn something from me: We do not have to have the exact same settings and rules (as obviously we would get the same results) - but our own implementation and likings of a common base: Spuds MTF Stochastic.

MJ



because I want to know what thesystem is capable to produce or not produce: if you make 10 % and I in the same time 0.5 % I know it can be better: if you are satisfied with 10 % and see me doing 35 % in the same time - you know there is more to take.

I think even Spud will profit from such an effort together.

Imagen Spud makes 150 % a year and and one of us shows by using different pairs and slightly different settings the basic system is able to produce twice as much http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/pound.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif

Happy Holiday Season to all of you, especially our master Spud.

I have been following this thread for some time and I have a question that I wish to find an answer to it. Why proposing a new strategy if the earlier ones, especially the Escalator to Pips, are effective?

It is intriguing to check out other techniques but I trust that trying and jumping from one strategy to another is kind of wasting time -- no offence.

I am fond of Spud's methdologies and ideas and for that reason I rushed to to the PDF file attached to one of the posts under this thread and I found that document utterly confusing and not easy to read at all! (I think titled "combination..." or something like that). I am not sure if it was written by Spud to begin with.

So I wish to learn from you: why new strategy if the Escalator to Pips is effective?

Thanks for the great effort and unlimited sharing.

hi Walad100100,

If you read this thread you will know that actually Spud himself - went on (base in the observation from Escalator to PIPS to the Rope and later further to the discussion of the combination and mechanical rules.)

So only he will be able to say WHY:

But I have a personal interest question to you: You say about the effectiveness of Escalator to Pips.

Can you share more about your results - how many trades, what success rate - about the average PIPs TP ect.....

Thanks MJ

Hi snarlyjack
Please could you post a screen shot showing your entries and exits.
many thanks
terry

Same settings as at the others: adding the new sessions


Trading Sessions:
20081219 – 08:33:00 20081219 – 13:15:00
20081219 – 13:48:00 20081219 – 19:00:00
20081222 – 01:00:00 20081222 – 06:00:00
20081222 – 07:53:00 20081222 – 17:00:00
20081223 – 08:30:00 20081223 – 18:00:00

Total 36 bots over 4 pairs (EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDJPY, EURCAD):

* TP: 341 / SL: 40

Percentage:

* TP: 89.5 % / SL: 10.5 %

Overall WORST system: based on the mechanical rules:
M5 Entries:
5 PIP TP or close by present and next higher TF-group Risk
assessment 60% or more (SL 100 PIPS)

* TP: 56 / SL: 19 || TP: 74.67 % / SL: 25.33 %

Overall BEST system: base on 16 Essential Risk assessments:
M5 Entries:
5 PIP TP (SL 100 PIPS)

* TP: 24 / SL: 1 || TP: 96 % / SL: 4 %

Overall WORST Pair: EURUSD

* TP: 117 / SL: 18 || TP: 86.67 % / SL: 13.33 %

Overall BEST Pair: AUDJPY

* TP: 64 / SL: 2 || TP: 96.97 % / SL: 3.03 %

Note:

*Mechanical System: Still the worst system
*EUR/USD still the worst Pair

*The overall best system is a new one: a different 5 min entry.
*AUD/JPY still the best Pair



* from all 9 different system there is for the FIRST TIME One system which would have managed (over all 4 pairs) till now the required 96 % TP

* From all 4 Pairs (average of 9 systems per pair) only Aud/JPY would have managed the needed more 96 % TP to be profitable

base on this 3 short days: average trade for each bot (using for pairs) was about 10 a day.

Based on this data: the overall performance has improved but would be still a disaster. (this set-up needs about 96 % success) WHERE as I've got 89.5 %


MJ



THIS WILL BE MY LAST SUCH Statistic posting -- as I hope that we can set up a joined one together as proposed in:


and for entertainment and education the green is TP the red is SL: an unlucky trade or maybe it turns still luckyhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon13.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

It's over and it turned to be an unlucky trade. 100 PIPs STOP LOSS HIT

Anyway I wish all of you:

BLESSED X-MAS and a WONDERFUL NEW YEAR.

much success in your trading effort - maybe we really could join up in improving ;-) TOGETHER WE ARE STRONG !

MJ

Terryed,

You know, I have yet to do a screen shot on forex factory using
my new platform Interbank FX.

If you can explain exactly how to do it I'll give it a shot.

thanks

snarlyjack

**** Or you can post up 3 different sma crossovers.
Try:

1). 5 sma, green
2). 15 sma, yellow
3). 30 sma, red
4). Along with Spuds stoch's...

The crossover is called the stoplight system. If it crosses green = go.
If the price bar crosses yellow = use caution. If the price bar crosses
the red = stop. Screen it up and watch it and play with it and let
us know what you think.

Here is an explanation on how to create screen shots on you pc.
http://www.iopus.com/guides/screenshot.htm

oo7_ts

Yes MJ, I wish to get an answer for my inquiry from Spud. I felt that the first post in this thread was trying to address it but for some reason I coulnd't get the idea and the motivation for a new strategy and rules.

Speaking of my performance with the Escalator to Pips, I would say that it failure rate is 5%, and I am still suffering from the way of handling the SL -- in fact, I don't decide it at all, which can hurt immenesely and wipe out the 95% success rate very easily. The average profit per trade is 7-10% with leverage of 1:100.

Pls. feel free to ask as I'd love to share.

Where is everyone? No more postings?? Seems like it's dead.