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  • #51,921
  • Dec 21, 2008 1:22pm Dec 21, 2008 1:22pm
thats interesting. I do think that due to the time of year and some other issues that it could look like that but it may be a little mutated. I have to say that tuesday or wendsday is a better candidate for a move higher than today or tomorrow. We will see though. Good analysis.
  • #51,922
  • Dec 21, 2008 1:58pm Dec 21, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting klinckphilip
thats interesting. I do think that due to the time of year and some other issues that it could look like that but it may be a little mutated. I have to say that tuesday or wendsday is a better candidate for a move higher than today or tomorrow. We will see though. Good analysis.

yeah because its end of year it makes me less confident in this setup, im not long term trader anyways so im gonna try to ride whichever way its going
  • #51,923
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:02pm Dec 21, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting hamed_a
hello Guys,
very very thanks for help me.
but I say something that I think you will be wonderfull!
My last Equify was 4$.now in 3 last days,4$ is 170$!!!!!
I think with 2$ risk for my Equify,my acount should be 5$ or 6$ lieu 170$!!Didn't You think?!!
my mind is big profit,wants big risk and big loss.
So thanks a lot again...
Good Luck
Those who try for the Penthouse get the Basement more times than not.
  • #51,924
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:13pm Dec 21, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting SunTrader
Those who try for the Penthouse get the Basement more times than not.
I like that. Not to instill negitive traits, but I have heard of people turning very low sums of money into exorbitant cow size accounts. I realize that this is very rare and demands a perfect situation traded perfectly a .001% chance of happening. But it has happened. I wonder if there are some who wait for this exact thing and try to make their fortune only a few times a year with much planning and a few losses for that elusive 1.
  • #51,925
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:20pm Dec 21, 2008 2:20pm
Quoting SunTrader
Those who try for the Penthouse get the Basement more times than not.
Simple math:

0.01 % of $5000 = $0.50 margin used or 0.01 lot size on interbankfx mini accounts.

100 pips per day on eurusd or 20 trading days in a month = 2000 pips

2000 pips @ 0.01 lot = $20 per month = 0.4% account growth per month = 4.8% account growth per year

now, what did i risk and what did i gain here ?

and to top it all absolutely no trading tension whatsoever.

and the cherry on the cake is there is absolutely 0 chance of losses, it will have to be a dumbest person on earth to pick up losses at this low risk trade.
  • #51,926
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:24pm Dec 21, 2008 2:24pm
Quoting junglelion
Simple math:

0.01 % of $5000 = $0.50 margin used or 0.01 lot size on interbankfx mini accounts.

100 pips per day on eurusd or 20 trading days in a month = 2000 pips

2000 pips @ 0.01 lot = $20 per month = 0.4% account growth per month = 4.8% account growth per year

now, what did i risk and what did i gain here ?

and to top it all absolutely no trading tension whatsoever.

and the cherry on the cake is there is absolutely 0 chance of losses, it will have to be a dumbest person on earth to pick up losses at this low risk trade.
Now multiply everything 10 times and get 48% a year and then again you are risking just 0.1% per trade. That .... is how i trade managed funds, 0 risk policy
  • #51,927
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:25pm Dec 21, 2008 2:25pm
Down but not out, and never far away....
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #51,928
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:30pm Dec 21, 2008 2:30pm
Chart Labels On MT4:

Use the "A" under line studies to set labels on chart.
Attached Image
  • #51,929
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:33pm Dec 21, 2008 2:33pm
Here is what I see on the weekly:

A nearly-formed shooting star showing of lack of commitment and high volatility. This last week's candle had the longest wick of any weekly candle I could find for this pair, approximately 800 pips,and that's just for the wick. The all-time fib of 23.6 was broken but not convincingly, given the close was so much below it. These factors plus lack of liquidity gives me the impression that the rally may not be lasting in the short term. An attempt to rally further is possible to the upper trend line, but I see it as less likely due to the holiday week we are now in.

Ovals in blue show similar price areas to this last weeks high. Ovals in gold show prices similar to where we are now. Blue rectangle is what I see as most likely PA for the coming week with yellow rectangles being less likely. The aqua line is the middle of the downward channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly 12-19.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #51,930
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:38pm Dec 21, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting TradeWell
Here is what I see on the weekly:

A nearly-formed shooting star showing of lack of commitment and high volatility. This last week's candle had the longest wick of any weekly candle I could find for this pair, approximately 800 pips,and that's just for the wick. The all-time fib of 23.6 was broken but not convincingly, given the close was so much below it. These factors plus lack of liquidity gives me the impression that the rally may not be lasting in the short term. An attempt to rally further is possible to the upper trend line,...
Good anal y sis, vouch added.
  • #51,931
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:43pm Dec 21, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting junglelion
Good anal y sis, vouch added.
Big thanks
  • #51,932
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:48pm Dec 21, 2008 2:48pm
hi there

I am going to wait to see what the market says... at london open. now it is very risky to take any position.... I still believe that FED is printing too many dollars... and the two latest days still are only in a retracement zone.. so no reason to go short yet... but I see risky to go long. We will see. Last week I had so many pips that I can trade extreme low risk for the rest of the year.
  • #51,933
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:51pm Dec 21, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting junglelion
Good anal y sis, vouch added.
ummm that was one word, got split accidentally
  • #51,934
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:55pm Dec 21, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting emda
hi there

I am going to wait to see what the market says... at london open. now it is very risky to take any position.... I still believe that FED is printing too many dollars... and the two latest days still are only in a retracement zone.. so no reason to go short yet... but I see risky to go long. We will see. Last week I had so many pips that I can trade extreme low risk for the rest of the year.
the dollar is still attractive. also wait until next month when eur and brit lowers their rates.
  • #51,935
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:58pm Dec 21, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting sed34
the dollar is still attractive. also wait until next month when eur and brit lowers their rates.
How much do you think this is already priced into the market?
  • #51,936
  • Dec 21, 2008 3:22pm Dec 21, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting sed34
the dollar is still attractive. also wait until next month when eur and brit lowers their rates.
do you really say that seriously ? dollar attractive at 0% ?
of course all the world will be watching closely what happens with euro rates next moneth... but I don't think it is going to go to 0% so.. in the worst case euro is still more attractive in my humble opinion... Maybe you know something more to say dollar is still attractive.
  • #51,937
  • Dec 21, 2008 3:45pm Dec 21, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting emda
do you really say that seriously ? dollar attractive at 0% ?
of course all the world will be watching closely what happens with euro rates next moneth... but I don't think it is going to go to 0% so.. in the worst case euro is still more attractive in my humble opinion... Maybe you know something more to say dollar is still attractive.
this is longer term. I'm not saying this will happen next month.


even though you had the initial spike. it is still 12% below its peak of 1.60. the dollar is fairly valued between 1.35-and 1.40. It could go back to 1.45 or possibly 1.50 because the European Central Bank has hinted that it may keep rates steady at its next meeting in January instead of cutting them again. they might lower it.

The U.S. has been more aggressive in attempts to support the economy while Europe has been viewed more as dragging its heels.

The US will be first to climb out of this recession. Also the new administration comes on board and takes over.

Countries are still buying our currency because of liquidity.
  • #51,938
  • Dec 21, 2008 3:51pm Dec 21, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting sed34
the dollar is fairly valued between 1.35-and 1.40.
Based on what exactly?
  • #51,939
  • Dec 21, 2008 3:59pm Dec 21, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting sed34
this is longer term. I'm not saying this will happen next month.


even though you had the initial spike. it is still 12% below its peak of 1.60. the dollar is fairly valued between 1.35-and 1.40. It could go back to 1.45 or possibly 1.50 because the European Central Bank has hinted that it may keep rates steady at its next meeting in January instead of cutting them again. they might lower it.

The U.S. has been more aggressive in attempts to support the economy while Europe has been viewed more as dragging its heels.

The US will be first...
I do believe that intranational US companies are going dollar due the climate but only until something better comes along like the 0% which makes CDO's, comodities, and even US equities look pretty good.
  • #51,940
  • Dec 21, 2008 4:15pm Dec 21, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting mikkom
Based on what exactly?
the US economy in relation to Europe economy. This is based on a whole lot of fundamentals. But some of the items are GDP, inflation rates, trade balances, national debt, which countries are buying it and by how much, T-bill purchases, consumer debt, consumer purchases. Imports and exports. A lot of number crunching.
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