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  • #51,541
  • Dec 18, 2008 2:43pm Dec 18, 2008 2:43pm
Well, i just want to add, that such statements from a "Senior Member" like Bye Bye (insert currency here) are obviously way out of the current situation and don't add anything to the discussion, they do however, make it even more difficult for new comers to get acquainted with the thread and making them feel unconfortable. Maybe we need a thread "speculations, predictions and other theory of doom stuff".

It seems like we're creating a small community that spits on every new member that wants to join the discussion and start to understand how this pair works.
Of course given that those "newbies" come already with some basic knowledge like going thru babypips.com at least 3 times

My 0.02€ (better spend'em while they exist )
Traders are smartasses
  • #51,542
  • Dec 18, 2008 2:51pm Dec 18, 2008 2:51pm
What do u think the psychological effect when u hear one of the above calls ?

I admit i am still Newbie and still need long long time to through aside feeling while trading...

Actually i managed to make 750 pips from latest bull move , and today made about 68 pip from this Bear move ( and just was away when the bigger fall happened....and forgot to put sell stops also ) .

I learned so much from this forum and just want to give some tips back from my own small experience, thats all
  • #51,543
  • Dec 18, 2008 2:52pm Dec 18, 2008 2:52pm
As we know, the dollar spike was not the result of positive fundamentals for the currency, rather it was largely the result of across-the-board forced liquidation of commodities and stocks due to deflation fears, with the tidal wave of released funds gushing into US Treasuries as a safe haven, which first necessitated the purchase of dollars. A fortuitous aspect of the panic for the US government and Fed was that the dollar spike gave them the leeway to embark on a bender of money creation to finance an orgy of bailout largesse, especially for the benefit and banks and cronies on Wall St, although clearly the auto industry does not enjoy such favored status. This has greatly exacerbated the downside danger to the dollar once the driver of Hedge Fund and other liquidation of commodities and stocks etc abates, which now appears to be happening as the market begins to perceive the hyperinflationary implications of the recent enormous money creation. Thus, once the dollar spike is seen to have ended we could witness an all-out panic out of the dollar, and market participants would do well to remember that that which rises steeply can drop even more quickly, which means that the dollar could well plunge vertically. We may be on the point of this now. In the event of the dollar plunging potential buyers and holders of US Treasuries are likely to get "cold feet" leading to a "buyers's strike" and possibly wholesale dumping of Treasuries by overseas holders. As the United States is in the unfortunate situation of being totally bankrupt, the choking off of foreign capital inflows can be expected to lead to an immediate and severe funding emergency, with the direst of consequences.


Full article with dollar chart showing h&s:



http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...und121608.html

ak4x - sorry - not trying to ruin your Christmas - have a good one
  • #51,544
  • Dec 18, 2008 2:57pm Dec 18, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting Spsantos
Well, i just want to add, that such statements ... that those "newbies" come
I am a newbie and have learned a lot from the folks on this forum. I do respect your concern for new members and several visitors. However, of the opinion that these freely expressed views introduce newbies to this Lion Country and help them rethink about their ways of Bird Watching.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #51,545
  • Dec 18, 2008 3:02pm Dec 18, 2008 3:02pm
Well said ak and emda

nothing less nothing more

cheers

Quoting ak4x
sorry but vinesh wasn't making a call, he was saying goodbye...

several of us here ((including myself)) have been doing that for sometime now, and tho I might take some longs from time to time or stay out, i'm still generally dollar bullish as well in the great scheme of things for many reasons I won't repeat. no different than yoorow bulls trading it short all the way down. on any given day we're all right even if only for a few minutes...

methinks the newbies like you're referring to need to be reading the money management threads...
  • #51,546
  • Dec 18, 2008 3:11pm Dec 18, 2008 3:11pm
allrighty, that being settled:

BYE BYE DOLLAR!

Traders are smartasses
  • #51,547
  • Dec 18, 2008 3:12pm Dec 18, 2008 3:12pm
How bout this...?

Bye Bye currencies... Hello whatever comes next. Can I trade it? ((I know... for what?))
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FUBAR...
  • #51,548
  • Dec 18, 2008 3:22pm Dec 18, 2008 3:22pm
bye bye dollar, bye bye pound... ((currently short UJ and GY but only until UJ retraces a little more then longin it again)) in a race to see whose most worthless currencies can be most in demand and thereby getting stronger while become weaker...

i get confused alot lately so i just sell whatever has red candles on it and buy whatever has green candles on it unless i have a reason not to

if you're a noob, forget you just read that and put me on your ignore list.
FUBAR...
  • #51,549
  • Edited 3:33pm Dec 18, 2008 3:23pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting Spsantos
allrighty, that being settled:

BYE BYE DOLLAR!

I always welcome Bye Byes ..... meaning like to short whenever possible ...... and sometimes even when its impossible.

Cheers

Ps. Difficult for me to imagine an apple flying away rather than falling on Newton.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #51,550
  • Dec 18, 2008 3:44pm Dec 18, 2008 3:44pm
Pivots for today from 5pm EST. The range just absolutely flabbergasts me.

Here's to S3!! That was not a call, it was a toast.

But if reached, then the yoorow has become toast indeed. On the other hand...

jaywalker, when you get online here, mind your manners...
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FUBAR...
  • #51,551
  • Edited 4:36pm Dec 18, 2008 4:27pm | Edited 4:36pm
Newbies please close your eyes ( I don't want you to get some wrong trading ideas from this message)

Is there any guru out there who could fortune tell odds against Eur/USD going either 1.4500 or 1.400 in next sixteen 16 hours, that is, by Friday 11:00 am Eastern Time (by first three hours after NY opens)?

I won't ask for the basis of such opinion - honest. Just need moral support for my wild guess.

Newbies, now open your eyes ...... but not your mouths.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #51,552
  • Dec 18, 2008 4:29pm Dec 18, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting bluej114
I was under the impression that if one knew how to read the charts correctly that the news & other such factors played no key in how the charts read. Is it just me, a newbie, that doesn't know how to read charts as well as she thought or did this EUR/USD pair just go freakin' crazy past couple days?
Reading charts and interpreting them by disecting various time frames are two different things. But your innitial impression was right, news and such can become an insignificant factor if you can "read" charts properly, but by no means expect to master this skill quickly. It takes years, and if you get too comfortable in your prediction it is time to reevaluate your opinions.
  • #51,553
  • Dec 18, 2008 4:38pm Dec 18, 2008 4:38pm
Quoting ak4x
sorry but vinesh wasn't making a call, he was saying goodbye...

several of us here ((including myself)) have been doing that for sometime now, and tho I might take some longs from time to time or stay out, i'm still generally dollar bullish as well in the great scheme of things for many reasons I won't repeat. no different than yoorow bulls trading it short all the way down. on any given day we're all right even if only for a few minutes...

methinks the newbies like you're referring to need to be reading the money management threads instead...
Excellent point, money management is the key. Even with a good system your risk is immense if do not manage your leverage and losses properly.
  • #51,554
  • Dec 18, 2008 4:42pm Dec 18, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting Chicky
Newbies please close your eyes ( I don't want you to get some wrong trading ideas from this message)

Is there any guru out there who could fortune tell odds against Eur/USD going either 1.4500 or 1.400 in next sixteen 16 hours, that is, by Friday 11:00 am Eastern Time (by first three hours after NY opens)?

I won't ask for the basis of such opinion - honest. Just need moral support for my wild guess.

Newbies, now open your eyes ...... but not your mouths.
Well, no gurus here that i know of (by the way that word just makes me uncomfortable for some reason). But I would say that there is a 40 percent chance of reaching 1.4400, but as far as 1.4500 thats more like 10 percent. I would assume that euro will keep droping today, however I have not analyzed the charts just yet, will post later on findings.
  • #51,555
  • Dec 18, 2008 4:51pm Dec 18, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting iii
Reading charts and interpreting them by disecting various time frames are two different things. But your innitial impression was right, news and such can become an insignificant factor if you can "read" charts properly, but by no means expect to master this skill quickly. It takes years, and if you get too comfortable in your prediction it is time to reevaluate your opinions.

Normally I would agree with your points iii but this time I beg to differ. Traders are what drive the markets. Every indicator that everyone uses, is an indicator of what has just happened. The sequence of events is. News, traders response(orders) then indicators move. True you can look at the past, and pretty much guess where it is going, But news can make an indicator that was doing one thing suddenly change to something else. As we can see on the monthly Eu chart.
  • #51,556
  • Dec 18, 2008 4:55pm Dec 18, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting iii
Well, no gurus here that i know of (by the way that word just makes me uncomfortable for some reason). But I would say that there is a 40 percent chance of reaching 1.4400, but as far as 1.4500 thats more like 10 percent. I would assume that euro will keep droping today, however I have not analyzed the charts just yet, will post later on findings.
Without going into the reasons that you may have, Guru to me is an expert in any walk of life.
Thanks for your very swift response. That means shorting it for the time being. Please don't bother about the charts right now, I needed this concurring opinion for my next week's planning. I try not to trade on Friday after NY session - bitter experiences. Thanks again for your input.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #51,557
  • Dec 18, 2008 4:55pm Dec 18, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting gregam1128
Reading charts and interpreting them by disecting various time frames are two different things. But your innitial impression was right, news and such can become an insignificant factor if you can "read" charts properly, but by no means expect to master this skill quickly. It takes years, and if you get too comfortable in your prediction it is time to reevaluate your opinions.



Normally I would agree with your points iii but this time I beg to differ. Traders are what drive the markets. Every indicator that everyone uses is an indicator of...
Traders do drive the market, however guys who trade small, like us, only make up about 20 percent of the the liquidity in forex the rest comes from larger trader and banks. To be honest I do not have a clue as to what banks and those larger investors base their decision making on (could be indicators, or some other technique). But one thing I know for sure... indicators lag. By the time the news came out and the move is already underway, it is already too late to enter as most people who possitioned themselves prior to the news are ready to take profits. Now of course there are exception as with anything, but these do not occur often.
  • #51,558
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:02pm Dec 18, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting Chicky
Newbies please close your eyes ( I don't want you to get some wrong trading ideas from this message)

Is there any guru out there who could fortune tell odds against Eur/USD going either 1.4500 or 1.400 in next sixteen 16 hours, that is, by Friday 11:00 am Eastern Time (by first three hours after NY opens)?

I won't ask for the basis of such opinion - honest. Just need moral support for my wild guess.

Newbies, now open your eyes ...... but not your mouths.
My reading of the charts – and I am NO guru, by any means. I think it is more likely to touch 1.400 right now than touch 1.4500. PA has been bouncing off the 23.6% fib drawn from 1.4719 down to 1.4184, having rejected it once again just a bit ago. I think a clear break of the 23.6% on up the 38.2% with some mojo behind it would bring about the 50% retrace of the move. But, that still leaves it 50 pips short of 1.5000. On the other hand, looking at my Stoch on several time frames and retest of the bottom seems more like the possibility, but that still leaves some 180 pips to move onto 1.4000. Though, I’m still a little bearishly inclined, I’m going call a 20% on the rise and a 40% on the drop. So, there you go.

And noobs – I have absolutely NO IDEA what I’m talking about!!!!!!!!!!!
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Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #51,559
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:04pm Dec 18, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting iii
Traders do drive the market, however guys who trade small, like us, only make up about 20 percent of the the liquidity in forex the rest comes from larger trader and banks....
One other thing to consider. With the volume of retail traders going through brokers such as IBFX and so on. It is very possible that they have the ability to move the market also. Take a look at what IBFX has written on their website in regards to how much money that they took in.
  • #51,560
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:07pm Dec 18, 2008 5:07pm
Quoting SeerEye
My reading of the charts – and I am NO guru, by any means. I think it is more likely to touch 1.400 right now than touch 1.4500. PA has been bouncing off the 23.6% fib drawn from 1.4719 down to 1.4184, having rejected it once again just a bit ago. I think a clear break of the 23.6% on up the 38.2% with some mojo behind it would bring about the 50% retrace of the move. But, that still leaves it 50 pips short of 1.5000. On the other hand, looking at my Stoch on several time frames and retest of the bottom seems more like the possibility, but that...
I have seen a lot of people say that. (Looks to be long, but could be a drop soon). Oh and don't let the small post count fool ya, I've got some years in this forum.
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