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The Force 5min system

  • #1,841
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:23pm Dec 16, 2008 11:23pm
Quoting robdee
As I understand it The Force rules mention only stochastic divergence, not macd divergence.
Yep sorry.

Any views on macd histo divergence jedi??
  • #1,842
  • Dec 17, 2008 7:43pm Dec 17, 2008 7:43pm
My life as padawan learner of the force has been an interesting journey. During the past month I’ve had numerous awesome experiences here on the forum and the chat room and this had led me down a path towards meeting all my dreams. I’ve also had the opportunity to try and help a few on there way to reach their dreams. I’ve learned many new things since even my last posting. Hope this can help someone out there.

Here we go, what I’ve learned since my last posting:

  1. My log has shown that I have reached break even or profitability 100% of the time when properly using the system with a 75% loss rate when I did not follow the rules
  2. I’ve found that I’m entering in less trades than others online. I’ve been missing trades due to me trying to be a perfectionist, making sure I’m having a proper set up. I feel that I’ve not made the pips I should have. Hope this starts to improve in time and experience
  3. I’ve learned my level of risk. How much I can emotionally handle without messing up. This has improved over the past week since I’ve noticed I’m getting out of trades early due to emotions. I have to get rid of emotions
  4. I’m working on creating a routine to ensure I do the same thing before ever session I start to trade. I’ve seen several people voice they tried to trade before they had lines drawn and lost lots of money.
  5. One thing I’m finding difficult to determine when to look for a bounce off a trend line or to look for a retest of the trend line
  6. I’ve learned how important it is to notice chart patterns to help cue in on price action.
  7. To learn price action a little better I have to demo accounts open at one time. On one account have just trend and pivot lines showing (like jedi’s charts) and see what I can see by just watching that chart and compare to what I can see then going to indicators. And then figure out why I see things different things on the same chart.
  8. I hate losing more pips than I need to
  9. I’ve learned that the system works and have to have confidence in the set ups.

An area that I and several other people I’ve chatted with are having issues with and that is money management. It seems to be universal to take 50% after 10 pips. The question seems to be where the issue is what to do next. What I’m thinking of implementing for my trading is 50% after ten, 50% of what’s left after 20, and close on price action. What do you guys think?

Thanks to everyone that has helped me out and answered all my questions. I look forward to someday that I will have the knowledge that you guys do.

A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #1,843
  • Dec 17, 2008 10:38pm Dec 17, 2008 10:38pm
Following the extremely fast 400 pip bull rally in the US morning session a triangle pennant formed during the afternoon.

Bulls were still pumping hard through until 20 mins after London Close. Bearish stochastic divergence gave us an early warning and then the 17:35 candle was a very convincing basic sell signal + obear. Immediate entry at 17:40 delivered a quick 30 pips before the bulls had another go. They took price up close to the 20 pip stop (just 5 pips below it). The drop then continued down to a +50 target (typical for this time of day) forming a firm double bottom at 4310.

Price then wandered for 30 mins above the new lower TL. It eventually formed a higher high and a higher low. A basic buy signal gave us an entry at 19:55 (2:55pm ET). Over the next 50 mins the upper TL was broken and a +70 target was reached before NYSE Close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_17dec2008_force.gif Size: 23 KB


Lesson I learned...

Nothing wrong with sticking to the basics. Doubles formed on TLs followed by basic signals ruled this session. Seems to work in just about any market condtions too.
  • #1,844
  • Dec 18, 2008 2:15am Dec 18, 2008 2:15am
Quoting robdee
Following the extremely fast 400 pip bull rally in the US morning session a triangle pennant formed during the afternoon.

Bulls were still pumping hard through until 20 mins after London Close. Bearish stochastic divergence gave us an early warning and then the 17:35 candle was a very convincing basic sell signal + obear. Immediate entry at 17:40 delivered a quick 30 pips before the bulls had another go. They took price up close to the 20 pip stop (just 5 pips below it). The drop then continued down to a +50 target...
Big thank you to SimpleGuy and Robdee for their posts. I think this helps me a lot. I hope to be able to sort out a London summary similar to Robs as that is the session I intend to trade. I have difficulty in being as succinct as Rob.

Simple, I think having a fixed exit strategy is excellent for newbies as it means it makes sure you bank a profit. Yes, you may be able to hang on and get more but you may not and when do you hand on until? My strat for exit is like yours. 50% off at 10 pips, 25% off at 20 pips. This means you have 10 pips locked in. Then the final 25% I let ride and see where it goes and look at Price Action which is good practice for heading towards theexpert rules which I assume is everyone's goal here.. Having this fixed in your head means during the action you're not sitting there wondering what to do, you just do it.

One of the hardest thing I am finding is calculating Risk:Reward. I've got FJ's calculator. That's not the problem, it actually thinking about R:R on the fly in the heat of battle.

Anyway, thanks for your posts.

fb
  • #1,845
  • Dec 18, 2008 12:35pm Dec 18, 2008 12:35pm
i m not ready for the advanced force.
those big moves, i am scared. i dont know where to draw the TLs and so i trade basic rules with very small gain compared to the big moves.

Yesterday i had 18 pips with 5 trades : 2 b/e 3 winner. today i have 22 pips with 4 trades. 1 is 0 , 3 are winners.
What i do to filter out fails even when trade basic rules:
i do not open a trade if PA builds a triangle or a wedge. I want to see HigherLows and HigherHighs before i plan to go long and opposit LowerLows and Lower Highs before i plan a short.
  • #1,846
  • Dec 18, 2008 12:46pm Dec 18, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting MJurban
i m not ready for the advanced force.
those big moves, i am scared. i dont know where to draw the TLs and so i trade basic rules with very small gain compared to the big moves.
MJ, I am glad you shared your concerns with us. I think there are quite a few people feeling unsure about drawing and updating short term TLs in particular. The long term ones are not so ambiguous. Jedi has explained drawing TLs so that most people can get the long term ones right.

As simpleguy said there is also a fair amount of confusion around what action to take when price approaches a TL. Do we wait for a retest, do we act on the first bounce, do we update when it close above, or just wick above and so on.

This is certainly an area that would benefit from review lessons in the chatroom. I'm sure Jedi and others will be glad to help us here.
  • #1,847
  • Dec 19, 2008 1:48am Dec 19, 2008 1:48am
At the London close there was plenty of momentum in that massive 500+ bear drop from the top. A bounce from 1.4181 formed a new lower TL. This new TL came back into play later in the session.

During the next 2.5 hours nothing appeared as tradeable entries.

Shortly after 3pm ET the wall st indexes broke down and the euro followed 5 mins later. A basic sell signal + obear provided an entry point and the price moved very quickly down to a +80 target near the new lower TL.

A double formed on the lower TL providing evidence of support. After NYSE closed the price moved up printing a basic buy signal + obull that confirmed immediately on the open of 21:30 candle.

After a 2 candle retrace the 'money maker wave' finally got going and +30 was reached on NY Close. +50 was also reached 75 mins later.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_18dec2008_force.gif Size: 20 KB


Lessons I learned...

1. A new TL formed on a new low is confirmed later in the session when it is retested.

2. A fake breakout of a lower TL can take the form of a double bottom. When this occurs it is good evidence of support.

3. Again I can see that the last 2 hours of NYSE (2pm-4pm ET) is a 'sweet spot' for technical trading.
  • #1,848
  • Dec 19, 2008 10:46am Dec 19, 2008 10:46am
I have a quick question that may have already been answered. The MACD histogram indicator v102 & v105 seem to lock up my mt4 platform and cause it not to perform correctly. Is there another version that is still a histogram and still has the text (rb, rt, vt, etc) but does not hang up the platform?
  • #1,849
  • Dec 19, 2008 11:27am Dec 19, 2008 11:27am
Thanks again for your analysis Robdee!

Quoting robdee
At the London close there was plenty of momentum in that massive 500+ bear drop from the top. A bounce from 1.4181 formed a new lower TL. This new TL came back into play later in the session.

During the next 2.5 hours nothing appeared as tradeable entries.

Shortly after 3pm ET the wall st indexes broke down and the euro followed 5 mins later. A basic sell signal + obear provided an entry point and the price moved very quickly down to a +80 target near the new lower TL.

A double...
  • #1,850
  • Dec 19, 2008 12:17pm Dec 19, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting robdee



Lessons I learned...

1. A new TL formed on a new low is confirmed later in the session when it is retested.

2. A fake breakout of a lower TL can take the form of a double bottom. When this occurs it is good evidence of support.

3. Again I can see that the last 2 hours of NYSE (2pm-4pm ET) is a 'sweet spot' for technical trading.

Great summary of the US session as usual.Am learning alot from your analysis. keep it coming you're the bumm!!
Let God be true, and every other man be a liar
  • #1,851
  • Dec 19, 2008 7:15pm Dec 19, 2008 7:15pm
I felt like I had dejavu from yesterday. The setup was so similar following another massive bearish decline. This momentum continued through London Close following down an upper trendline established earlier during the US am session.

Solid support was evident 1.5 hours into the session with a double bottom forming on the monthly R3 pivot. A 'textbook perfect' basic buy signal gave a sweet entry with plenty of safety margin for a 20 pip stop down below the support line.

Only 15 minutes later the +50 target triggered a fast retrace which was jumped on by the bulls (see long wick 19:05). This confirmed the TL break and price moved what seemed like incredibly slowly but in fact climbed to +100 pips in just 2.5 hours.

That is 40 pips per hour and is actually turbo speed for a Friday afternoon. That's why I keep coming back to the US pm session. It seems boring and slow (compared to London Open) but the pips are there - no doubt about it!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_19dec2008_force.gif Size: 21 KB


Happy Holidays to all Junior Jedis

ForexJedi your system is an Amazing Gift - Thankyou!
  • #1,852
  • Dec 20, 2008 12:14am Dec 20, 2008 12:14am
Quoting robdee
Lessons I learned...

1. A new TL formed on a new low is confirmed later in the session when it is retested.

2. A fake breakout of a lower TL can take the form of a double bottom. When this occurs it is good evidence of support.

3. Again I can see that the last 2 hours of NYSE (2pm-4pm ET) is a 'sweet spot' for technical trading.


Thanks for your time here Robdee, your report and analysis from each pm US session is a constant learning for me ! Keep up the good work Jedi !

Luk
  • #1,853
  • Dec 20, 2008 12:15am Dec 20, 2008 12:15am
Traders,

As some may remember I called a experimental short from the High of the recent long term bull trend based on a long term strategy im testing. I have to say this trade is on fire. The diference from this strategy and holding a position on my expert rules is that I no longer close any portion of my position. Instead I aim for longer term profits. So far I have locked in 700 pips and have added to my position three times with locked in profits meaning if the trade reverses I wont loose any pips. So far im extremly pleased with the results. This trade started when the price failed at the 61.8 fib level of recent long term bull run. So far the trade has made a full 32.8 retrace down to the 3800 level. Whats next? I will attempt to hold to the 3600 level (50.0 retrace) and proceed from there to the ultimate goal of the 2000 lows. My original risk for each positioned was -50 pips making my RR so far 14:1. If the trade make it to the 2000 lows my RR will be so big I havent even tried to calculate it yet. This strategy is based purely on fibs which I deem fictional on lower time frames such as 5min. On longer time frames however they are the key to great profits. When I have a large amount of forward testing completed on this strategy I will release it here. Also in development is a scalping strategy. I expect to release these strategys around summer 2009. Below is a shart with the progress from recent said trade.

FJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5minchartnew.gif Size: 16 KB
Stacking pips since 2002
  • #1,854
  • Dec 20, 2008 10:52am Dec 20, 2008 10:52am
hi
i don't forgot you but i was busy on another thread (FX50)
as have suggested Robdee ; i have modified this indicator
I can't test it , coz FX closed
looks well
see screen above

perhaps Robdee can make it better

kinonen
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: newversion.gif Size: 23 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Divergence_STOCH_FX5_kino&Bob_v2.mq4   13 KB | 742 downloads
  • #1,855
  • Dec 20, 2008 1:16pm Dec 20, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting robdee
I felt like I had dejavu from yesterday. The setup was so similar following another massive bearish decline. This momentum continued through London Close following down an upper trendline established earlier during the US am session.

Solid support was evident 1.5 hours into the session with a double bottom forming on the monthly R3 pivot. A 'textbook perfect' basic buy signal gave a sweet entry with plenty of safety margin for a 20 pip stop down below the support line.

Only 15 minutes later the +50 target triggered...
Hello Rob. Agree with another poster. Your updates and responsiveness are VERY MUCH appreciated and MOST helpful. I noticed your chart setup where you overlay the stochastic on the MACD. I'm not sure how to do that without messing up the scaling. Would you mind posting the template? Again, many thanks and Merry Christmas.
  • #1,856
  • Dec 21, 2008 3:56am Dec 21, 2008 3:56am
Just showing 1 possible set of fibs with obvious supp/res levels. Theres little wonder why we have paused here, the fib tying in with previous supp/res. There are other lower target levels shown.

Good areas for the kind of bounces Robd has shown in his last (very good as usual) US summary.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,857
  • Dec 21, 2008 5:54am Dec 21, 2008 5:54am
V,

I suspect you may anticipate a bull continuation and im inclined to beliee the same. If the price doesnt clear the 38.2 retrace as you mention above on monday it is possible. However since the price did not make a 100.o retrace from previous long term bear run id also be inclined to think the price will continue in its bear trend. If the price does not hold at the 38 area we could see the 3200 area as a new bear toarget. If the price does hold and makes a bull continutation we could see the price rise back to the 4200 area. Monday will an interesting and possibly volatile day. Im excited to see the results. Please comment with your thoughts.

FJ

are other lower target levels shown.

Good areas for the kind of bounces Robd has shown in his last (very good as usual) US summary.[/quote]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stacking pips since 2002
  • #1,858
  • Dec 21, 2008 6:41am Dec 21, 2008 6:41am
Here a quick bit on getting into the zone by which I mean making sure you know whats going on in the market before make any trades. One of the forst things a trader should do before making any trade is review at least 1 days worth of previous charts. Look at all the moves and understand why they happend and why the price is headed in its current directions. If for example if previous days trend on the 5min was bear yould should understand why it was a bear trend. You should then find the support and resistance levels. Then look at the chart from both angles. Think long and think short. Theres no way to really know what direction the price will move to. By thinking from bith sides of the market you will employ a sort of mental filter to iad you in your trading. If your thinking of opening a long trade, first sit back and look at the market as though your already involved in a bear trade. Would you close your bear trade at that moment or would you leave it open and do the same for a trade in the apposing direction.

FJ
Stacking pips since 2002
  • #1,859
  • Dec 21, 2008 1:31pm Dec 21, 2008 1:31pm
Great post... exactly what is required. I have tried to set up a routine where I spend 15min getting ready to trade and if I don't the first trade is usually a losser. I currently adding TL etc and review resistance levels will be adding prvious days review to my list ....this to makes perfect sense.

Got to love this system and the bits of knolwdge that keep poping up to keep the learning going.

The main thing is I can see better results each week.

Can't wait for each trading day....
  • #1,860
  • Dec 21, 2008 1:32pm Dec 21, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting maxreturn
I noticed your chart setup where you overlay the stochastic on the MACD. I'm not sure how to do that without messing up the scaling.
Thanks Max for your feedback on my posts.

Layering indicators in MT4 can save valuable screen space (at least that's why I do it).

Open the Navigator Window, drill down to Indicators, drag and drop the selected indicator across to an existing indicator window to layer it on top.

Hope that makes sense. I'm sure you'll soon figure it out. RD
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