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EURUSD

  • #50,881
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:12am Dec 17, 2008 2:12am
Quoting hitman047
The trend is still UP on M30, H1 and H4. i know you were absolutely right today, but i think you need to explain why you think it'll drop

1) the stochastics on the daily and H4 are above 90!
2) from high to low... had a 50% fib retracement
3) look at the range... it has broke up through it... will go back down to test 3770 (daily support level high back on 10/14) before going back up (it may not get that low, but it should drop to 1.40 - 1.39
  • #50,882
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:37am Dec 17, 2008 2:37am
EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3709; (P) 1.3928; (R1) 1.4227
EUR/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.4191, inch below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.4222) before retreating mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3941 minor support holds. Sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance now paves the way towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.4621. On the downside, below 1.3941 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring pull back. but downside should be contained above 1.3408 support and bring another rise.
Probability Professor
  • #50,883
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:38am Dec 17, 2008 2:38am
Short EURUSD at 1.4143 will see how far it goes..
Time goes you say? Ah, no! Time stays. We go...
  • #50,884
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:40am Dec 17, 2008 2:40am
Quoting Bullfx
Now EU has more interest rate to cut than the US. and of course EUR will be down faster than USD
Your calls are day trades but your explanation is swing trade - hmmm .. interesting
  • #50,885
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:44am Dec 17, 2008 2:44am
Quoting Galation
Every Nipple Helps .
surely it does
  • #50,886
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:55am Dec 17, 2008 2:55am
Quoting junglelion
surely it does
lol, you naughty boy.
Probability Professor
  • #50,887
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:57am Dec 17, 2008 2:57am
eru fail to break fibo 50% and weekly EMA50 which act as a strong resistance and more over we have a bearish DV on M30.
trend is up but buy now is not safe and a retrace to dwon would be expected.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: m30dv.JPG Size: 142 KB
  • #50,888
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:06am Dec 17, 2008 3:06am
I think the effect of rate cut of US is temporary bad news for us and
>>>bad for global economi specialy EROUP>>us will come back
we see this many times last months for pairs and oil price
  • #50,889
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:13am Dec 17, 2008 3:13am
Quoting peyman
I think the effect of rate cut of US is temporary bad news for us and
>>>bad for global economi specialy EROUP>>us will come back
we see this many times last months for pairs and oil price
1.46 then hard drop back to 1.37 before continuing back up

Euro is a common cuirrency of a group of nations and US is a single nation, plus China's forex reserve is in Euro not $ and they will never allow it to depreciate much.

Its easier to stand infront of a standing train then to short eurousd here.
  • #50,890
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:17am Dec 17, 2008 3:17am
If there is ever going to be a peak for this EUR bull run, it wld be 1.4267, the Fibo 76.40 from the 22nd Sept high of 1.48644 to the 27th Oct low of 1.2333.

Just my opinion, thats all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 17-12-08.JPG Size: 97 KB
  • #50,891
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:20am Dec 17, 2008 3:20am
Hi from Spain,

I think that is not good for international business a big difference between EUR/USD.

EUR must be fall.
  • #50,892
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:24am Dec 17, 2008 3:24am
Quoting Algirdas
Trend still do not loosing steam:

EUR/USD Target 1.4197
GBP/USD Target 1.5753
AUD/USD Target 0.7023
NZD/USD Target 0.5837

USD/CAD Target 1.1897
USD/CHF Target 1.1121
If you forgot to take some profit from EUR/USD Long, now it's getting good time. Never take all profit 100%, let it go something.
Never take all profit 100%, let it go something, and market will make for you very nice surprise.
Looking for one more Intraday reentry. Like EUR/USD Short and USD/CHF Long. It could be today's highs and lows, just USD/CAD possibly will break 37 pips lower for reentry, NZD/USD 0.5863. Look how all USD pairs correlate (AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, USD/CAD and USD/CHF). If we would see 2 or more pairs substantial break of thees levels,"No Trade", just EUR/USD let it go something Long..
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  • #50,893
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:39am Dec 17, 2008 3:39am
Help me analyze this. Based on a weekly chart, we just bounced off of a 50% Fib level and we're still in an general uptrend and based on a daily chart (downtrend) we touched the 50% fib level, 50 and 200 daily EMA are heading up so can we expect it to go to 61% this week?

So in this case of a daily chart, how do you know when the trend has been broken and the reversal has occurred? I mean how do you know EUR/USD is not retracing anymore but heading upwards? What is the key element that tells you this?

http://www.shrani.si/f/1z/97/1GW6Lym...anddailyeu.jpg
  • #50,894
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:43am Dec 17, 2008 3:43am
Quoting govno
Help me analyze this. Based on a weekly chart, we just bounced off of a 50% Fib level and we're still in an general uptrend and based on a daily chart (downtrend) we touched the 50% fib level, 50 and 200 daily EMA are heading up so can we expect it to go to 61% this week?

So in this case of a daily chart, how do you know when the trend has been broken and the reversal has occurred? I mean how do you know EUR/USD is not retracing anymore but heading upwards? What is the key element that tells you this?
Trust me - a lot of traders are thinking along the same lines. My guess is we are seeing some profit taking at the 50% fib level. Most traders would probably be waiting at the sidelines and would have entry orders for long at 4220 or so.

The best way to figure out if this is a reversal or just some consolidation is to wait for a day or so to answer it for you and keep an eye on price action.

Regards
  • #50,895
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:49am Dec 17, 2008 3:49am
Good morning,

Key level today is 1.40745 (MR1) acting as support.
As I expected Asian session continued upwards trend with profit taking at the end towards as low as 1.40

Clear support against any down trend or retrace below 1.40 level.

Trading range:

1.40 might be tested in European session but IMO only to act as launch platform for further continuation towards 1.420 with resistance R1 @ 1.4223 as T1 today.

Break low of 1.40 could bring us back towards daily pivot @ 1.3925 which is IMO the most unlikely scenario looking at risk aversion and strong support to maintain at least this current level by large funds and banks.

Key level 1.40745 is the one to watch...

As always..just my 2 cents...
  • #50,896
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:59am Dec 17, 2008 3:59am
EUR/USD Support and resistance levels:

S3- 1.3988
S2- 1.4027
S1- 1.4066
R1- 1.4144
R2 - 1.4183
R3 -1.4222

Enjoy
Probability Professor
  • #50,897
  • Dec 17, 2008 4:08am Dec 17, 2008 4:08am
Quoting Shadowfx
Good morning,

Key level today is 1.40745 (MR1) acting as support.
As I expected Asian session continued upwards trend with profit taking at the end towards as low as 1.40

Clear support against any down trend or retrace below 1.40 level.

Trading range:

1.40 might be tested in European session but IMO only to act as launch platform for further continuation towards 1.420 with resistance R1 @ 1.4223 as T1 today.

Break low of 1.40 could bring us back towards daily pivot @ 1.3925 which is IMO the most unlikely scenario looking at risk aversion and...
i was long at 4150 trying to catch a spike. BAD MOVE. now i'm down 60 pips or so. do you think i should hold on, given that the general consensus is that it should be an up trend after some minor correction (which is happening right now)?
  • #50,898
  • Dec 17, 2008 4:15am Dec 17, 2008 4:15am
this can help dow , s&p go down today and then $ get force >>>ERU go down http://finance.yahoo.com/news/White-...-13852290.html

anyone know more about this?
  • #50,899
  • Dec 17, 2008 4:21am Dec 17, 2008 4:21am
Quoting hitman047
i was long at 4150 trying to catch a spike. BAD MOVE. now i'm down 60 pips or so. do you think i should hold on, given that the general consensus is that it should be an up trend after some minor correction (which is happening right now)?

the market stays irrational longer than you can stay solvent. bottomline is it really depends on your account size and risk appetite.my personal oppininon is to use a stop loss you can afford and let the trade unfold.you can always trade another time if your account is intact. if it's blown? never hold on to a loosing trade! just my opinion though.
  • #50,900
  • Dec 17, 2008 4:26am Dec 17, 2008 4:26am
Quoting hitman047
i was long at 4150 trying to catch a spike. BAD MOVE. now i'm down 60 pips or so. do you think i should hold on, given that the general consensus is that it should be an up trend after some minor correction (which is happening right now)?
Ive said this many times in the past don't chase but train your self to find and more important recognize the right entry points...where you buy low and sell high..the truth is..its easier said then done...even for experienced traders.

With concern to your trade, all depends on how much risk your willing to take on your account and margins.

Once I see risk exposure above my risk tolerance I cut out the trade radical instead of "hoping for"..which 9 out of 10 times increases your losses.

Have a look at my first post today for my expectations which indicates your risk expose...having said that please do realize...I don't have the holy grail..nor a crystal ball so please do not follow my posts blind.

As do many others I'm contributing my knowledge and experience here simply to share and learn...

Just my 2 cents...
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